Bitcoin Is Either Going To Zero Or A Million

Speakers

Jonah Van Bourg — Host / Trader

Avi Felman — Host / Trader

Summary

The "SaaS Apocalypse" is the dominant tech thesis. The hosts argue that AI has lowered the barrier to entry for software development so drastically that large companies (Mega Caps) will stop renting software (SaaS) and start building internal tools. This suggests a massive transfer of value from B2B SaaS companies to the Hyperscalers who own the compute and the AI models.
Crypto is in a "Pets.com" moment. The market is bifurcating between "garbage" (memecoins, zombie L1s) and "real businesses" (DeFi protocols with revenue like Hyperliquid and Uniswap). The hosts predict a washout of high-valuation/low-utility tokens while revenue-generating protocols will decouple and perform like Amazon post-2000.
Prediction Markets are the new "Altcoins". Retail gambling liquidity is shifting from random crypto projects (L1s/L2s) to prediction markets (Polymarket), which are viewed as zero-sum games that will drain retail capital faster than the "positive sum" community bubbles of previous crypto cycles.
Quantum Computing FUD is a non-issue. The fear that quantum computers will steal Satoshi’s coins is dismissed; the network will simply hard fork to quantum-resistant encryption, rendering old "pre-quantum" coins worthless (similar to BCH/BSV forks).

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
GOOG /META /AMZN /MSFT	LONG	Avi Felman Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager	"The revenues that were going to those companies [SaaS] are going to be absorbed into savings from Google... profit go up." Large tech companies are vertically integrated "Exxon Mobiles of compute." They have the capital to build internal software replacements using AI, cutting out third-party SaaS vendors. This reduces OpEx and increases margins for the Hyperscalers, making them the ultimate beneficiaries of the AI productivity boom. Long Mega Cap Tech as they capture the value previously leaked to SaaS vendors. Regulatory breakup risks or a failure of AI to deliver actual coding productivity gains.	11:42
CRM /TEAM /INTU /WDAY /ADBE	SHORT	Avi Felman Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager	"In the next three years, I guarantee you that a lot of people are getting rid of Salesforce because they've just built their own internal tools." The "SaaS Apocalypse." AI allows companies to build bespoke "System of Record" tools in-house rather than paying expensive per-seat licensing fees. This creates a secular downtrend for B2B SaaS companies that rely on high switching costs that AI is now eroding. Short legacy SaaS providers. (Tactical note: Do not short in the hole; wait for 15-20% rallies/bounces to enter shorts). Institutional inertia; companies may be slower to switch off legacy systems than anticipated.	20:33
UNI /HYPE /AERODROME	LONG	Avi Felman Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager	"Hyperliquid is trading as much volume as Coinbase now... Uniswap are getting bought up by large institutions... these things are actually generating real revenues." This is the "dot-com implosion moment" where 99% of projects die (Pets.com), but the real businesses (Amazon) survive. Protocols generating actual cash flow and volume are being dragged down by the broader crypto bear market, creating a deep value opportunity. Long DeFi protocols with real revenue/volume (Uniswap, Hyperliquid, Aerodrome). Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi interfaces or a prolonged 18-month "crypto winter" that suppresses all assets regardless of quality.	28:39
COIN	SHORT	Avi Felman Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager	"Hyperliquid is trading as much volume as Coinbase now... Coinbase is just imploding." Decentralized exchanges (like Hyperliquid) are eating Coinbase's market share in volume, yet trade at a fraction of the valuation. As on-chain trading becomes superior, the centralized incumbent (Coinbase) loses its moat. Short Coinbase as a hedge against Long DeFi. Regulatory moat protects Coinbase; institutional flows (ETFs) continue to favor Coinbase custody.	8:42
MEMECOINS	SHORT	Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland	"Whiff... traded from 25 cents up to 50 cents and now it's trading 23 cents. Like in these violent bear markets, you get squeezes." In a bear market, "garbage" assets (memecoins) trend to zero but have violent dead-cat bounces. These bounces provide liquidity to enter short positions. Short Memecoins (specifically WIF mentioned) into strength/squeezes. "Animal spirits" return suddenly, causing a short squeeze (memecoins can 10x irrationality).	25:43
ZRO /MONAD /SUI /APT	AVOID	Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland	"Why bet on some random crypto project... why bet on Layer Zero or Monad... or Sei or Sui or Aptos when you can gamble on [Prediction Markets]?" Retail liquidity is shifting away from "Tech" coins (L1s/Interop) toward pure gambling (Prediction Markets). Without the "casino" aspect of community pumps, these high-valuation infrastructure plays have no buyer of last resort. Avoid generic L1s and "Zombie Chains" as attention shifts to gambling/prediction markets. A specific app breakout on one of these chains attracts liquidity back.	34:22
BTC	LONG	Avi Felman Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager	"My take is that there is value at like 60 to 64k per BTC... maybe we get down to 52K at which case you really can back up the truck." Bitcoin is currently in a liquidity air-gap. While momentum is down, the fundamental value zone is 60-64k. The "Quantum FUD" is noise because the chain will simply fork to solve it, preserving value for active holders. Accumulate Bitcoin in the low 60s; aggressive buy at 52k. Global liquidity crunch or "Crypto Winter" lasts 18 months (Mike Ippolito thesis).	4:11