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Feb 18
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LONG
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—
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Meta is one of Nvidia's top two customers and is now purchasing Nvidia CPUs (Grace) alongside GPUs, whereas "Intel and AMD used to own that market of server CPUs." Nvidia is using its dominance in GPUs to cross-sell CPUs by promising better throughput and performance. Hyperscalers like Meta are accepting this bundle to ensure they remain on the priority list for scarce GPU allocation. Long NVDA as it captures more data center wallet share; Long META as it secures the necessary compute for AI dominance. Regulatory scrutiny on Nvidia's bundling practices; over-ordering by Hyperscalers leading to an eventual inventory digestion phase. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties As Uber Plans To Spe...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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—
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The speaker notes that "Intel and AMD used to own that market of server CPUs" but Nvidia is now telling customers they get better performance using Nvidia CPUs with their GPU clusters. As Hyperscalers (Meta) shift CPU spend to Nvidia to optimize AI workloads and secure supply, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for traditional x86 server CPUs (Intel/AMD) shrinks in the high-growth AI segment. Avoid legacy chipmakers as they lose their stronghold in the hyperscale data center market. Nvidia's CPU performance fails to meet benchmarks; antitrust intervention prevents Nvidia from bundling CPUs with GPUs. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties As Uber Plans To Spe...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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—
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Uber completes 13 billion rides per year compared to Waymo's 20 million. Uber is investing $100M into robotaxi charging stations. The hardest part of ride-hailing is managing wait times. Robotaxi hardware companies (like Waymo) lack the network density to offer low wait times globally. Therefore, they must eventually plug into Uber's network to be viable. Uber becomes the aggregator/platform rather than the hardware manufacturer. Long UBER as the "winner-take-most" network utility for the autonomous future. Expansion of Chinese autonomous fleets (like Didi) into Europe and other non-US markets could challenge Uber's global dominance. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties As Uber Plans To Spe...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Christian Magoon
CEO of Amplify ETFs
|
Magoon advocates for a strategy mixing "high quality US equities" (DIVO) and "high quality international stocks" (IDVO) with an "active managed covered call approach." He highlights that the international version was up significantly (41% in the prior year mentioned) by using this tactical approach. In volatile markets, relying solely on price appreciation is dangerous. Generating yield from two sources—dividends and option premiums—buffers returns. Furthermore, option income often counts as "Return of Capital," which reduces the investor's cost basis rather than being taxed immediately as ordinary income. LONG. These active ETFs offer a superior risk-adjusted way to capture income compared to passive indexing in choppy markets. Covered calls cap upside potential during aggressive bull runs; international exposure introduces currency and geopolitical risks. |
CNBC
Amplify ETFs CEO on ETFs with income-focused ...
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Feb 18
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WATCH
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Christian Magoon
CEO of Amplify ETFs
|
Magoon observes, "It used to just be about owning consumer staples stocks and utility stocks... But it's gotten a lot more sophisticated." The "old playbook" of hiding in defensive sectors for yield is becoming obsolete. Investors are better served by seeking yield through structural advantages (options strategies) on high-quality broad equities rather than concentrating risk in low-growth defensive sectors. WATCH / ROTATE. Implicit suggestion to reduce reliance on these specific sectors for income in favor of active option strategies. If volatility crashes, option premiums evaporate, potentially making traditional high-yield sectors attractive again relative to covered call funds. |
CNBC
Amplify ETFs CEO on ETFs with income-focused ...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Dr. Scott Gottlieb
Former FDA Commissioner; Board Member (Pfizer, Illumina, UnitedHealth); Partner at NEA (Venture Capital)
|
Gottlieb cites a Wall Street Journal editorial noting FDA leader Vinay Prasad rejected Moderna's (MRNA) mRNA vaccine without a cursory review. This "arbitrary" regulatory behavior increases the cost of capital and unpredictability for the entire sector. Gottlieb notes investment in vaccines and cell/gene therapies is drying up in the US and shifting to China (where half of the global mRNA pipeline now sits). The regulatory environment in the US has become hostile to innovation, making the sector uninvestable in the medium term until leadership changes. A change in FDA administration or successful appeals by pharma companies could reverse sentiment. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
|
Steven Fulip
Partnership for New York City President and CEO
|
NYC Mayor is threatening a property tax hike if a wealth tax isn't passed. Fulip notes this would push NYC corporate taxes to ~22% compared to 11% in neighboring New Jersey. The tax disparity creates a "trip wire" for businesses. Fulip highlights that JPMorgan (JPM) now has more employees in Texas than in NYC, signaling a structural shift of business operations away from the city due to fiscal policy. Avoid NYC-centric real estate and commercial exposure as the tax burden threatens to drive further corporate exodus. The Governor (Hochul) may block the tax proposals, maintaining the status quo. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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SHORT
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Sorkin visited an AMC theater for a recent movie ("Crime 101") and noted only ~12 people were in the audience. The stock is trading under $2. Despite having "good movies," the theaters remain empty. The business model relies on consistent blockbusters, which are not materializing frequently enough to support the overhead. The fundamental business is broken ("How is this whole place even in business?"). A surprise mega-hit or "meme stock" rally could temporarily squeeze shorts. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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WATCH
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Netflix (NFLX) is giving Paramount (PARA) a week to negotiate with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) before pressing its own "better bid" (guaranteed deal, less debt). WBD is the prize in a bidding war between two major players. Netflix is "flooding the zone" to convince shareholders directly, bypassing the board. WBD is in play. The competitive tension between NFLX and PARA suggests a floor or premium for WBD shares, though regulatory hurdles remain a massive question mark. DOJ/Antitrust regulators could block either deal, leaving WBD as a standalone entity with high debt. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
|
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WATCH
|
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Amazon snapped a 9-day losing streak that shaved $450B off its market cap following the announcement of a $200B capex plan for 2026 (AI spend). The market initially panicked at the spending scale (4x estimates), but the rebound suggests investors are beginning to digest the necessity of this AI infrastructure build-out. The stock is at a pivot point; execution on this capital deployment is critical. It is a high-stakes bet on AI integration preventing the company from being "put out of business." If the $200B spend does not yield additive revenue or distinct AI advantages, returns on invested capital will crush the stock. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Michelle McGinness
CEO of My Cargo 247
|
"The larger freight companies have traditional insurance that is great for contracts... a $200,000 loss for a large carrier might be a blip on their balance sheet but it can put out of business a small shipper." The surge in cargo theft creates a "survival of the fittest" environment. Small, underinsured carriers in the spot market face existential risk from a single theft event. This structural fragility favors large, capitalized logistics providers (UPS, FedEx, C.H. Robinson) who possess robust insurance programs and balance sheet depth. Shippers seeking reliability will likely consolidate volume toward these safer incumbents. LONG (Flight to Safety/Consolidation). A broad recession reducing overall freight volumes; "Strategic theft" (identity fraud) evolving to bypass even sophisticated carrier defenses. |
CNBC
How small businesses are insuring their cargo...
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Feb 18
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WATCH
|
Michelle McGinness
CEO of My Cargo 247
|
Theft is surging ($725M losses), "strategic theft" (identity theft) is rising, and 60% of freight is underinsured. Widespread theft acts as a hidden tax on the trucking ecosystem, increasing insurance premiums and operational friction. While large players are insulated, the broader sector faces headwinds from "shrink" and liability disputes, potentially squeezing margins across the industry until security solutions scale. WATCH (Sector Headwind). Rapid adoption of new spot-market insurance technologies could mitigate these risks faster than anticipated. |
CNBC
How small businesses are insuring their cargo...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy
President of Ukraine
|
"He cannot let go of the very idea of war... in reality he is a slave to war." Zelenskiy argues that the aggressor is psychologically incapable of de-escalation. If the war is driven by an existential obsession rather than rational geopolitical goals, the conflict will be prolonged. A "forever war" scenario necessitates sustained and increasing defense spending by NATO and Western allies to support Ukraine and replenish depleted stockpiles. LONG. The thesis supports a secular bull market for defense contractors and aerospace firms. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or regime change in Russia could lead to a rapid de-rating of the defense sector. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says He Cannot Imagine Putin Withou...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy
President of Ukraine
|
"We will not let other European nations go either." Zelenskiy explicitly warns that Putin's ambitions are not limited to Ukraine but extend to the broader European continent. This introduces significant geopolitical tail risk for European markets. If the conflict threatens to spill over or if Russia maintains a permanent aggressive posture against the EU, European assets warrant a higher risk premium compared to US counterparts. AVOID. The geopolitical overhang acts as a cap on valuation multiples for European indices. If the conflict remains strictly contained within Ukraine or ends sooner than expected, European equities could rally on relief. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says He Cannot Imagine Putin Withou...
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Feb 18
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|
WATCH
|
Joanna Rondeau
ECB Editor, Bloomberg
|
Rumors are circulating that Lagarde may leave the ECB early, coinciding with French presidential elections where the "far right is riding high," creating anxiety about whether "we entrust the far right in France to have a say in picking the successor." Central Bank stability is a pillar of currency strength. If the ECB presidency becomes a political football in a volatile French election cycle, the uncertainty will likely force a risk premium onto the Euro and European assets. Investors typically sell the currency of regions undergoing leadership crises. WATCH. Monitor for confirmation of Lagarde's plans. If the rumor gains traction, it is a negative catalyst for the Euro and European equities due to governance uncertainty. The ECB has explicitly denied the report, and Lagarde has previously stated she is "not a quitter," meaning the status quo could easily remain. |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde to Step Down Early From ECB Position,...
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Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
News Reporter
Anchor/Journalist
|
"It's Europe's biggest power plant... Ukraine is heavily reliant upon nuclear energy for its electricity generation. So this was a huge loss for them." The focus on Zaporizhzhia highlights the critical strategic value of nuclear baseload power in the region. The "fragility" of the grid underscores the scarcity of stable energy. While the immediate news is about risk/safety, the macro implication reinforces the importance of nuclear assets and uranium supply security. Watch Uranium miners and ETFs (URA) for volatility driven by geopolitical headlines surrounding nuclear infrastructure. A nuclear accident or safety incident at the plant would be catastrophic for the sector's sentiment. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says Ukraine, Russia to Discuss Zap...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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News Reporter
Anchor/Journalist
|
"Neither side really seems to be backing off. Moscow has stuck to maximalist demands... Ukraine simply wouldn't go for any deal where they ceded land." The diplomatic deadlock and "maximalist" stances confirm that a near-term ceasefire is highly unlikely. A prolonged war of attrition guarantees continued government spending on munitions and defense systems to support Ukraine and replenish NATO stockpiles. Long Defense contractors and Aerospace ETFs (ITA) as the conflict duration extends. Sudden unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or reduction in Western aid packages. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says Ukraine, Russia to Discuss Zap...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker highlights a clip where the OpenAI CFO suggests a "government backstop" is needed for their trillion-dollar spending commitments, and explicitly states, "The United States government... is going to categorize AI as a military proxy... and throw infinite money at compute." If the US views AI as a Cold War-style arms race, fiscal constraints on AI spending will vanish. The government will subsidize the "ecosystem of banks" and tech giants to ensure the US reaches AGI first. This guarantees revenue for the infrastructure providers and model builders regardless of immediate commercial viability. LONG US AI infrastructure and Hyperscalers as beneficiaries of unlimited government defense spending. Political gridlock preventing subsidies; US actually losing the technical race despite spending. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker notes that "4 out of the top 5 AI models by global usage are Chinese," BYD sold 50% more EVs than Tesla, and Chinese consumer apps (TikTok, games) dominate culture. The market consensus is that China merely "steals" IP, but the data shows genuine technical breakthroughs and superior unit economics (Minimax is 20x cheaper than US counterparts). As China dominates both "Atoms" (manufacturing) and "Bits" (AI/Apps), their equity valuations are disconnected from their actual dominance. LONG Chinese tech and manufacturing leaders as they capture global market share in EVs, AI, and culture ("Chinamaxxing"). Geopolitical sanctions; US trade barriers blocking Chinese products. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker points out that "out of 100 things made in the military, there's like 80 that the process is traced back to China" and cites Raytheon (RTX) admitting the US cannot decouple from China. The "Bits to Atoms" thesis implies that the last 30 years of software prosperity masked a hollowing out of US industrial capacity. To compete with China, the US must aggressively re-industrialize and secure military supply chains, leading to massive capex in domestic defense and manufacturing. LONG US Defense and Industrials as the beneficiaries of the forced "re-onshoring" and "Bits to Atoms" transition. Supply chain shocks if China cuts off exports before the US can rebuild capacity. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
|
Japanese exports to the US fell 5% in January, and the country faces a "higher tariff" threat if they do not fund these projects within 45 days of announcement. While Japanese global exports are rising, the US relationship is under pressure. This deal is effectively a "pay-to-play" agreement where Japan must invest capex to avoid tariffs. If they miss the 45-day funding window, tariff implementation would hurt Japanese exporters significantly. WATCH Japanese markets for confirmation of funding; failure to execute could trigger a bearish tariff event. Supreme Court rulings on broader tariffs (mentioned in the video regarding EPA tariffs) could complicate the trade environment regardless of this specific deal. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan, US Reach $36 Billion Gas, Mineral Proj...
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|
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
|
Japan is investing $36 billion specifically into US "oil, gas, and critical mineral projects," including a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export hub in Texas. This represents a massive, government-mandated capital injection directly into the US energy and industrial base. The "45-day" funding requirement ensures this liquidity hits the market rapidly rather than being delayed by bureaucracy. The construction of the "largest" gas facility in the US will drive significant revenue for infrastructure builders and energy service providers in these regions. LONG US Energy Infrastructure and Critical Minerals sectors as the direct recipients of this inbound FDI. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approval could stall the deployment of funds; the 90/10 profit split long-term is less favorable for the Japanese investors, potentially reducing their incentive to manage efficiently post-recoupment. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan, US Reach $36 Billion Gas, Mineral Proj...
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|
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Feb 18
|
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AVOID
|
Mandeep Singh
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
|
"Palantir trading at 80 times sales when ANTHROPIC... [was] at a lower multiples... valuations... were stretched... missing in the software sector right now [is] long term revenue visibility." Public software valuations are disconnected from reality when compared to faster-growing private AI firms. The sector is undergoing a regime shift where traditional metrics (seat growth) are being replaced by "token consumption." Until companies can prove visibility under these new metrics, they remain in a "penalty box." AVOID high-multiple software stocks that have not yet bridged the gap to consumption-based revenue visibility. Market sentiment could ignore fundamentals and continue to bid up high-beta tech names during the bounce. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as AI Concerns Begin ...
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Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Mandeep Singh
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
|
"ANTHROPIC, which is growing, you know, almost ten X in the past 12 months... private valuation, they were at a lower multiples." Anthropic serves as the rational benchmark for AI valuations. Its lower multiple despite higher growth highlights the overvaluation in public proxies like Palantir. WATCH Anthropic's valuation dynamics as a leading indicator for where public AI multiples should settle. Private market opacity makes real-time tracking difficult. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as AI Concerns Begin ...
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Mandeep Singh
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
|
"CapEx increase is going to memory, which has really gone up so much because of the shortages... how much is for component increases right now." While there is uncertainty about the ROI for companies *spending* the CapEx, the destination of that capital is clear: it is flowing into components with pricing power. Memory shortages are driving up costs, meaning memory producers are capturing the value of the increased spending. LONG the Memory Sector as the direct beneficiary of supply constraints and inflationary CapEx cycles. Resolution of supply chain shortages could soften pricing power; broader tech pullback could reduce overall CapEx budgets. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as AI Concerns Begin ...
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Feb 18
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|
AVOID
|
Julia Boorstin
Senior Media & Tech Correspondent
|
The trial is described as the "industry's Big Tobacco moment." The suit takes a "novel approach... focused on product design and liability" to bypass Section 230, and "thousands of other cases could play out" based on this verdict. The comparison to Big Tobacco suggests a potential structural shift in liability and regulation. If the jury accepts that "addictive design" is not shielded by Section 230, Meta faces not only monetary damages but potentially forced changes to the algorithms that drive user engagement and ad revenue. AVOID. The binary risk of a "bellwether" verdict and the emotional weight of testimony from bereaved parents create significant negative headline risk and uncertainty. Meta wins the case, reinforcing its legal defenses; the jury finds Instagram was not a "substantial factor" in the plaintiff's struggles. |
CNBC
Mark Zuckerberg to testify in high profile so...
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|
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Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Julia Boorstin
Senior Media & Tech Correspondent
|
"YouTube, TikTok and Snap were named in this case, but they have settled now." By settling, Google (YouTube) and Snap have removed the immediate volatility of a jury verdict and the negative PR of a CEO cross-examination. However, if Meta loses on the "product design" argument, the legal precedent will eventually apply to the entire sector, reintroducing risk to these names later. WATCH. They are relatively safer than Meta in the immediate term (having settled), but the sector's regulatory moat is being tested. Settlement terms (undisclosed) impact margins; a Meta loss triggers sector-wide sell-off regardless of individual settlements. |
CNBC
Mark Zuckerberg to testify in high profile so...
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|
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Randall Williams
Sports Business Reporter, Bloomberg
|
"What are they thinking about the Atlanta Braves... they do in fact, trade at a discount to private market value." Like MSGS, the Atlanta Braves tracking stock suffers from a "conglomerate/holding company discount." If the market begins to re-rate sports assets based on recent private transactions (e.g., Seahawks at $8B+), this discount should narrow. LONG. Sympathy play to the MSGS thesis and general sports asset inflation. On-field performance impacting revenue; lack of a specific catalyst (like a sale) compared to the MSGS news. |
Bloomberg Markets
MSG Sports Considering Spinning Off New York ...
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|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Randall Williams
Sports Business Reporter, Bloomberg
|
"There's institutional investor money out there... looking to invest in professional sports franchises... Private equity is increasingly buying more stakes because they are seeing these meteorite fees continue to rise." As valuations hit levels where individuals can no longer afford teams (e.g., $8B for Seahawks), the capital stack requires institutional money. Private Equity firms raising dedicated sports funds will see increased deal flow and management fees as they provide the necessary liquidity for these transactions. LONG. Betting on the "financialization of sports" trend. League ownership rules (like the NFL's strict limits) could cap PE involvement; valuations could peak, reducing IRR for these funds. |
Bloomberg Markets
MSG Sports Considering Spinning Off New York ...
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|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Randall Williams
Sports Business Reporter, Bloomberg
|
"MSD [MSG] as a company is valued at $7 billion... the Knicks and the Rangers combined are much larger than that... anywhere between 13 to $14 billion." The stock is trading at a ~50% discount to the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) value of its assets. A spinoff or restructuring serves as the catalyst to unlock this value, allowing public shareholders to capture the private market premium. LONG. Pure arbitrage play on the disconnect between public market cap and private asset valuation. The Dolan family (controlling owners) may decide against the spinoff or structure it in a way that doesn't benefit minority shareholders; holding company discounts can persist for years. |
Bloomberg Markets
MSG Sports Considering Spinning Off New York ...
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Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Stani Kulechov
Founder of Aave Labs
|
"Aave is lending stablecoins at 5%... and a lot of decentralized competitors are lending between 7 to 12%... centralized lending basically collapse[d]." DeFi has proven a superior cost structure (lower rates for borrowers) and superior risk management (automated, transparent liquidations vs. opaque centralized balance sheets). Traditional finance and centralized crypto lenders suffer from higher overhead and human error/fraud risk, making them structurally uncompetitive against optimized smart contracts like Aave V4. AVOID (Technological obsolescence). Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi could force users back to traditional/centralized venues despite the higher costs. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Aave Labs Is Putting Itself at the Mercy ...
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|
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Stani Kulechov
Founder of Aave Labs
|
"The biggest resources for us what we learned is solar power... being able to fund a lot of solar which is capital expensive but operational cost low... tokenize that asset use as a collateral in a V4." Stani explicitly identifies "Abundance Assets"—specifically Solar and Batteries—as the primary target for Aave V4's RWA expansion. He views these as the future of collateral because they require massive upfront capital (which DeFi can provide) but have low maintenance costs. If Aave integrates these assets, it creates a new, massive liquidity tap for the solar industry. LONG (Second-order effect of DeFi RWA adoption). Regulatory hurdles in tokenizing real-world energy assets; technical failure of the RWA "spokes" in Aave V4. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Aave Labs Is Putting Itself at the Mercy ...
|
|
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Stani Kulechov
Founder of Aave Labs
|
"We want to ensure that we send an extremely strong signal that the value capture is going to the tokencentric model... 100% of that revenue [from Labs products] to the AVA DAO." Historically, value in DeFi protocols was split between the development company (equity) and the DAO (token). Aave Labs is voluntarily forfeiting its revenue streams (including fees from the Aave Card and frontend swaps) to the DAO. This consolidates all economic value into the AAVE token, transforming it from a governance token into a cash-flow generating asset. LONG (Fundamental value accrual shift). The DAO might reject the funding request for Labs ($50M/year), or regulatory scrutiny could increase due to the direct revenue model. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Aave Labs Is Putting Itself at the Mercy ...
|
|
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Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Dina Titus
Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)
|
Titus agrees with casino owner Derek Stevens, calling prediction markets "marauders" because "They're not paying any state income tax... not paying anything into problem gambling." She explicitly names "Kalsi [Kalshi] and Polymarket." Titus is actively sponsoring the "Fair Bet Act" to force these platforms to comply with fragmented state gaming laws rather than federal commodity laws. This represents a severe regulatory headwind intended to stifle their growth or shut them down to protect state tax revenue. Avoid unregulated prediction markets as political pressure from the incumbent gaming lobby is intensifying. The CFTC successfully claims jurisdiction, legitimizing prediction markets at the federal level despite Titus's objections. |
Bloomberg Markets
Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform,...
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Feb 18
|
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SHORT
|
Dina Titus
Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)
|
Titus states, "This shutdown really hurts Nevada if you don't have TSA... TSA is going to start missing paychecks... the 1st of March." She notes morale is already low and warns of the impact on tourism. If the shutdown persists past March 1st, TSA absenteeism (sick-outs) will likely spike as agents go unpaid. This causes airport bottlenecks, reducing leisure travel volume, specifically hurting flight demand to tourism hubs like Las Vegas. Short US Travel/Airlines ahead of the March 1st deadline as operational friction risks increase. A last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) is passed, averting the pay stoppage. |
Bloomberg Markets
Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform,...
|
|
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Dina Titus
Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)
|
Titus argues that gaming regulation should remain "state by state" and that operators must "follow the rules of the states where they're already established." She dismisses the CFTC's ability to regulate gaming. By fighting to keep regulation at the state level and attacking "prediction markets," Titus is effectively defending the regulatory moat of incumbent, licensed sportsbooks. High barriers to entry (state licensing) favor established players like DraftKings over new, agile prediction market competitors. Long regulated sportsbooks as political figures move to crush their lower-cost, unregulated competition. Prediction markets gain legal status as "event contracts" under the CFTC, bypassing state gaming commissions. |
Bloomberg Markets
Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform,...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Bernie Moreno
U.S. Senator (R-Ohio)
|
"This is the best thing that could happen for the US Dollar because it dollarizes the world. It creates massive competition for Treasuries... giving Americans more rewards for being able to have cash on reserve." The legislative push is to allow stablecoins to pay yield (rewards). If passed, this transforms stablecoins from passive transaction vehicles into yield-bearing cash equivalents, likely driving massive adoption and increasing the "velocity of money." Long the Stablecoin sector (issuers and infrastructure) as they become authorized competitors to traditional savings accounts. Banking lobby resistance to deposit flight; strict capital requirement regulations. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Coinbase CEO...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Brian Armstrong
CEO of Coinbase
|
"The CFTC has exclusive authority over these types of contracts... Coinbase has been building out what we call the everything exchange... We also launched prediction markets." Despite state-level attempts to ban prediction markets as "gambling," the CFTC is stepping in to claim federal jurisdiction. This regulatory cover allows major compliant exchanges (like Coinbase) to enter the sector, legitimizing it as a financial derivative rather than a casino game. Long Prediction Markets infrastructure and platforms. Supreme Court challenges regarding state preemption; potential reversal of CFTC stance. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Coinbase CEO...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Brian Armstrong
CEO of Coinbase
|
"The smartest financial service institutions out there and banks are leaning into this... They're all hiring for crypto and blockchain product managers." Large banks are not ignoring crypto; they are building the backend to capture the asset class. Banks that successfully integrate with providers (like Coinbase) will retain deposits that might otherwise flee to DeFi, while gaining new fee streams. Long forward-thinking major banks integrating blockchain rails. Regulatory crackdown preventing banks from holding crypto on balance sheets (SAB 121 issues). |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Coinbase CEO...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Brian Armstrong
CEO of Coinbase
|
"Coinbase is buying Bitcoin. We're buying our own stock back... Coinbase is actually powering infrastructure for five of the largest banks in the world right now." Management is signaling deep value at current price levels through share repurchases. Furthermore, the pivot from pure retail trading fees to B2B infrastructure for "Traditional Banks" creates a stickier, institutional revenue stream that the market may be undervaluing. Long COIN as a dual bet on retail crypto recovery and institutional banking integration. Failure of the market structure bill to pass; continued compression of trading fees. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Coinbase CEO...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Bernie Moreno
U.S. Senator (R-Ohio)
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"If I had money to put in the market today, I would buy Bitcoin... I would absolutely buy Bitcoin today instead of Gold." A sitting U.S. Senator involved in financial legislation is explicitly endorsing Bitcoin over the traditional safe haven (Gold). This signals a legislative tailwind that views Bitcoin not as a threat, but as a strategic asset to be encouraged. Long BTC as the preferred store-of-value asset for the current political administration. Macro liquidity shocks; delay in legislative clarity. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Coinbase CEO...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
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Green points out that Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent have doubled off their lows but remain cheap, generating billions in profit. The geopolitical discount is too steep. The US and China will likely find a way to coexist ("One plus one equals four"), and these companies are dominant monopolies trading at value multiples. LONG. A contrarian value play against the expensive US tech sector. Geopolitical tensions escalating or further regulatory crackdowns from Beijing. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Gil Luria
Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson
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Software stocks have underperformed the broader market by the widest margin since 2000. Luria notes MSFT, NOW, SNOW, and DDOG are trading at attractive valuations relative to growth. Newman highlights CRM and NOW are proving AI is an accelerator, not a displacer. The market is pricing in "obsolescence risk" (AI replacing software), but the counter-narrative is that AI is a "labor enhancer." These companies provide the essential infrastructure for AI (MSFT/SNOW) or the "rules and rails" of business (CRM/NOW) that cannot be easily replaced by LLMs. LONG. The sell-off is a tactical opportunity to buy high-quality compounders at depressed multiples. If "Agentic AI" actually begins replacing seat-based SaaS licenses faster than anticipated. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Alicia Levine
Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon
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Lazar forecasts a 12% jump in CapEx for 2026, driven by a "manufacturing renaissance" and heavy truck orders. Levine notes a rotation into "dirty businesses" (making things) as capital flows to the physical world. The AI trade is broadening from digital to physical. You cannot build data centers, factories, or energy infrastructure without materials and industrial machinery. This sector benefits from the "goods producing" jobs multiplier. LONG. Cyclicals are the beneficiaries of the "No Landing" / 4% GDP growth scenario. If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to strong growth, financing costs for heavy industry could bite. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
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Japan is investing $36 Billion in US energy projects, including a natural gas plant in Ohio and oil export facilities in the Gulf. This is a direct injection of capital into US energy infrastructure. It validates the "Energy Security" theme and guarantees demand for US LNG and fossil fuels. LONG. US Energy infrastructure is a beneficiary of geopolitical alignment with Japan. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approvals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Oliver Chen
Retail Analyst at Cowen
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Walmart is gaining market share across all income cohorts, including high-income earners. Green compares the current AI cycle to the 2000 internet boom, noting that incumbents who adapted (Walmart/Target) won, while those who didn't (Sears) died. In a bifurcated retail environment, scale and data are the new moats. WMT is successfully blending physical retail with digital advertising and AI-driven supply chain efficiency. It is a "Phygital" winner. LONG. WMT and COST are defensive growth plays that benefit from trade-down behavior and technological adaptation. Valuation is high (WMT at 50x mentioned), leaving little room for earnings disappointment. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Jim Zelter
Co-President of Apollo Global Management
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Apollo's stock was hit by fears that private credit portfolios are exposed to "obsolete" software companies. Zelter clarifies their exposure to non-IG software debt is minimal. The market mispriced the risk. Apollo is pivoting to "boulders" (massive retirement service markets in Japan/Australia) and Investment Grade credit, which are less disruptable by AI than small-cap SaaS. LONG. The sell-off was based on a misunderstanding of their loan book composition. A broader credit cycle or recession would hurt their private credit book regardless of sector. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
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Green explicitly states we are in a "Giant AI CapEx Bubble" and that the amount of money being spent on infrastructure is "mind-boggling" relative to current revenue. Overbuilding is rampant. Similar to the telecom fiber bubble, capacity is being built that may not be utilized immediately, leading to massive depreciation cycles that will hurt the owners of this hardware/infrastructure. AVOID. The risk/reward for pure-play infrastructure build-out is skewed to the downside if utilization lags. If AI adoption accelerates exponentially (AGI), the demand for compute could outstrip even this massive build-out. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
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Green calls Palantir an "amazing company" and owns the stock. Newman notes they are a driver in the enterprise space. Despite high valuations, PLTR is in a "category of one" for delivering actual revenue/margin expansion from AI (the "receipts"). They are successfully bridging the gap between AI hype and operational utility. LONG. A winner in the "application layer" of AI. Extremely high valuation multiples make it vulnerable to any growth deceleration. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 18
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WATCH
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Unknown Speaker
Financial Commentator/Analyst
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"If you take a look at the thirty year mortgage rate right now, it's sitting at about 6.1%... With rate cuts, it does take a little bit longer to trickle into the mortgage rate space." The housing market is currently frozen by the spread between current rates and the "lock-in" rates of 2021. The trade here is not to buy housing yet, but to watch the transmission mechanism of Fed policy. Until the 30-year fixed drops significantly below 6%, housing volume will remain sluggish. WATCH. Wait for confirmation that Fed cuts are actually compressing the spread on mortgage rates before re-entering housing plays. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing rates higher and crushing housing further. |
Bloomberg Markets
Toll Brothers Signs Fewer Contracts Than Expe...
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