Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform, DHS Funding

Speakers

Dina Titus — Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)

Summary

A government shutdown affecting DHS is looming, with a critical deadline of March 1st when TSA agents will start missing paychecks.
Titus highlights the immediate economic threat to Nevada's tourism industry if TSA operations slow down due to the funding standoff.
The Congresswoman takes a hostile stance toward "Prediction Markets" (specifically naming Kalshi and Polymarket), aligning with traditional casino owners who view them as unregulated "marauders."
She opposes CFTC oversight of gaming, preferring to maintain the current state-by-state regulatory moat that protects incumbent sports betting operators.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
US TRAVEL SECTOR /JETS	SHORT	Dina Titus Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)	Titus states, "This shutdown really hurts Nevada if you don't have TSA... TSA is going to start missing paychecks... the 1st of March." She notes morale is already low and warns of the impact on tourism. If the shutdown persists past March 1st, TSA absenteeism (sick-outs) will likely spike as agents go unpaid. This causes airport bottlenecks, reducing leisure travel volume, specifically hurting flight demand to tourism hubs like Las Vegas. Short US Travel/Airlines ahead of the March 1st deadline as operational friction risks increase. A last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) is passed, averting the pay stoppage.	—
POLYMARKET	AVOID	Dina Titus Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)	Titus agrees with casino owner Derek Stevens, calling prediction markets "marauders" because "They're not paying any state income tax... not paying anything into problem gambling." She explicitly names "Kalsi [Kalshi] and Polymarket." Titus is actively sponsoring the "Fair Bet Act" to force these platforms to comply with fragmented state gaming laws rather than federal commodity laws. This represents a severe regulatory headwind intended to stifle their growth or shut them down to protect state tax revenue. Avoid unregulated prediction markets as political pressure from the incumbent gaming lobby is intensifying. The CFTC successfully claims jurisdiction, legitimizing prediction markets at the federal level despite Titus's objections.	6:49
DKNG	LONG	Dina Titus Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)	Titus argues that gaming regulation should remain "state by state" and that operators must "follow the rules of the states where they're already established." She dismisses the CFTC's ability to regulate gaming. By fighting to keep regulation at the state level and attacking "prediction markets," Titus is effectively defending the regulatory moat of incumbent, licensed sportsbooks. High barriers to entry (state licensing) favor established players like DraftKings over new, agile prediction market competitors. Long regulated sportsbooks as political figures move to crush their lower-cost, unregulated competition. Prediction markets gain legal status as "event contracts" under the CFTC, bypassing state gaming commissions.	—