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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Dina Titus
Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)
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Titus agrees with casino owner Derek Stevens, calling prediction markets "marauders" because "They're not paying any state income tax... not paying anything into problem gambling." She explicitly names "Kalsi [Kalshi] and Polymarket." Titus is actively sponsoring the "Fair Bet Act" to force these platforms to comply with fragmented state gaming laws rather than federal commodity laws. This represents a severe regulatory headwind intended to stifle their growth or shut them down to protect state tax revenue. Avoid unregulated prediction markets as political pressure from the incumbent gaming lobby is intensifying. The CFTC successfully claims jurisdiction, legitimizing prediction markets at the federal level despite Titus's objections. |
Bloomberg Markets
Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform,...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Katherine Wu
Host / Starkware
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CFTC Chair Behnam explicitly stated the agency "would no longer stand idle" while states infringe on their jurisdiction regarding prediction markets. The CFTC is effectively positioning itself as the federal shield for prediction markets against a patchwork of state-level bans. If the CFTC wins this "federal preemption" argument (likely heading to the Supreme Court), it legitimizes the asset class and removes the existential risk of 50 separate state battles. Long the sector. The regulatory headwinds are converting into a federal framework that favors established players. Supreme Court rules in favor of States' rights, fragmenting the market. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"There is no way Logan Paul and Golden Auctions... are going to list this thing for sale and not crime it into an all-time high sale... I like trading on sus." In "event markets" (prediction markets), outcomes involving high-profile influencers or PR stunts are often manipulated or incentivized to hit specific targets (e.g., record-breaking prices). Identifying these "sus" (suspicious/rigged) setups offers high-probability asymmetric returns. LONG Prediction Markets (Strategy call). Platform insolvency or "resolution" disputes where the house rules against the obvious outcome. |
Thread Guy
The Logan Paul Situation is INSANE..
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Feb 13
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NEUTRAL
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MEP
Top 100 Polymarket Trader
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MEP notes that Trump's tweets (e.g., instructing to "keep negotiating") are direct signals for de-escalation, leading MEP to bet "No" on imminent war in the Middle East. The market often overprices war risk based on mainstream media; tracking specific leadership comms (Trump) provides an edge to fade war FUD. NEUTRAL/SHORT VOLATILITY on war-linked assets (like Oil/Defense) when Trump signals negotiation. Insider trading by state actors (e.g., Iran/Israel) manipulating prediction market odds to deceive enemies. |
Thread Guy
The Bear Market is OVER. Stocks are about to ...
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Feb 12
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WATCH
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Jennifer Ilq
President, ICE Futures US
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ICE has made a strategic investment in Polymarket and established a data relationship to distribute Polymarket's sentiment data through ICE's data services. This legitimizes prediction markets as a source of high-quality financial data. While Polymarket is private, this partnership signals that "event contracts" are moving into the institutional mainstream, potentially leading to future investable products or a valuation uplift for the platform. WATCH for future equity opportunities or related tokens in the prediction market sector. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets in the US. |
CoinDesk
ICE Goes Live With Futures Tied to CoinDesk I...
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Feb 04
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LONG
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Kain Warwick
Founder of Infinex / Founder of Synthetix
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Warwick explicitly names Poly Market and Hyperliquid as examples of apps where "demand is super high" but "barriers are still high." He notes that once friction is removed, using them becomes a "no-brainer." Infinex is effectively a "frontend aggregator." It does not replace these protocols; it routes volume to them. If the Super App thesis works, the underlying "best-in-class" derivatives and prediction protocols (Backend) will see a surge in volume from users who previously couldn't figure out how to bridge/swap to use them. Long the underlying protocols that Infinex integrates. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets or derivatives; failure of the frontend aggregator to gain traction. |
The Block
The case for a crypto super app in a multi-ch...
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Jan 29
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AVOID
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Laura Walter
Founder/CPA, CryptoTaxGirl
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"In 2026, the... bill limits gambling losses to now 90% of winnings... You technically broke even. But on your return, you actually now... pay tax on $10,000 of phantom gambling income." Prediction markets are treated as gambling. The new 2026 tax law creates a mathematical disadvantage for high-volume traders. If you bet $100k and win $100k (break even), you can only deduct $90k of losses, leaving you with $10k of taxable income despite making $0 profit. This destroys the liquidity incentives for market makers and heavy users. AVOID. The tax code now penalizes volume on these platforms. Legislation could change or "Parity Act" could reclassify these assets. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Your 2025 Crypto Tax Guide: What You Need To ...
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Jan 27
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WATCH
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Rob Hadock
General Partner at Dragonfly Capital
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Poly Market is doing ~$4.5B in monthly volume and dominating cultural conversation (elections, sports, geopolitics). Hadock compares Poly Market to ICE (parent of NYSE, ~$95B market cap). He argues that if/when a token launches, or if equity becomes accessible, it represents a "category winner" that owns the end consumer relationship in a way DraftKings/FanDuel cannot (due to their limitation to sports). WATCH. If a token is announced, it is a high-conviction buy based on "category king" status. Regulatory bans in the US (currently geoblocked); failure to capture value for token holders. |
Thread Guy
Bitcoin is about to PUMP...? Crypto Onchain i...
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