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Feb 18
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
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WATCH
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Joanna Rondeau
ECB Editor, Bloomberg
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Rumors are circulating that Lagarde may leave the ECB early, coinciding with French presidential elections where the "far right is riding high," creating anxiety about whether "we entrust the far right in France to have a say in picking the successor." Central Bank stability is a pillar of currency strength. If the ECB presidency becomes a political football in a volatile French election cycle, the uncertainty will likely force a risk premium onto the Euro and European assets. Investors typically sell the currency of regions undergoing leadership crises. WATCH. Monitor for confirmation of Lagarde's plans. If the rumor gains traction, it is a negative catalyst for the Euro and European equities due to governance uncertainty. The ECB has explicitly denied the report, and Lagarde has previously stated she is "not a quitter," meaning the status quo could easily remain. |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde to Step Down Early From ECB Position,...
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Feb 18
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
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LONG
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Jeremy Stretch
Editor, Financial Times
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Rumors suggest Christine Lagarde may leave the ECB early. The market initially sold the Euro on uncertainty. Potential successors (e.g., Joachim Nagel of Bundesbank) are significantly more hawkish than Lagarde. A hawkish shift at the ECB supports the currency. LONG EUR (Buy the dip on leadership rumors). Political instability in France (Macron/Le Pen dynamics) overshadowing monetary policy. |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde Reported to Leave ECB Before Term End...
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Feb 18
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
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SHORT
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LiveSquawk
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ECB official Villeroy's statement that the ECB has won the battle against inflation suggests a dovish stance, potentially leading |
@LiveSquawk
ECB’s Villeroy: ECB Has Won The Battle Agains...
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Feb 16
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
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SHORT
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@LiveSquawk
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Eurozone industrial production data for December came in weaker than expected year-over-year and showed a month-over-month decline, suggesting economic weakness in the Eurozone. |
@business
Indian officials reiterated their position th...
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Feb 16
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
WATCH
|
—
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Sweden is "warming" to the Euro to bind itself to a "big economic bloc" amidst threats from Russia and uncertainty regarding US foreign policy (Greenland claims). If the inquiry proceeds, the market will begin pricing in a convergence of the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the Euro (EUR). Historically, candidate currencies stabilize or appreciate toward their peg rate prior to accession. Monitor the EUR/SEK cross. A credible move toward adoption is structurally bullish for the SEK (Short EUR/SEK) as it aligns with the stronger Eurozone core. Memories of the Eurozone debt crisis could lead to a public rejection, causing SEK volatility to return. |
Bloomberg Markets
Sweden Warms to Euro on Trump's World Order, ...
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Feb 14
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@ReutersBiz
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ECB opens up euro lifeline in bid to boost global role https://t.co/7NYGZ5XT0K https://t.co/7NYGZ5XT0K |
@ReutersBiz
ECB opens up euro lifeline in bid to boost gl...
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Feb 14
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
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LONG
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@ReutersBiz
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ECB makes euro backstop global to bolster currency's role https://t.co/IkOoJr60R5 https://t.co/IkOoJr60R5 |
@ReutersBiz
ECB makes euro backstop global to bolster cur...
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Feb 14
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@ReutersBiz
|
ECB opens up euro lifeline in bid to boost global role https://t.co/9Wz07L1FVG https://t.co/9Wz07L1FVG |
@ReutersBiz
ECB opens up euro lifeline in bid to boost gl...
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Feb 14
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@FirstSquawk
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ECB is prepared to offer euro liquidity to monetary authorities from around the world, an effort to prevent market tensions and increase global use of the single currency |
@FirstSquawk
ECB is prepared to offer euro liquidity to mo...
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Feb 14
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@business
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The ECB is prepared to offer euro liquidity to monetary authorities from around the world, an effort to prevent market tensions and increase global use of the single currency https://t.co/ZCAApEae3X |
@business
The ECB is prepared to offer euro liquidity t...
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Feb 14
|
|
$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@ReutersBiz
|
ECB makes euro backstop global to bolster currency's role https://t.co/QCmGmUDJqY https://t.co/QCmGmUDJqY |
@ReutersBiz
ECB makes euro backstop global to bolster cur...
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Feb 14
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@financialjuice
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ECB President Lagarde: revamped repo facility strengthens role of the euro
ECB: central banks can borrow up to 50 billion euros against euro denominated marketable assets
European Central Bank Presi |
@financialjuice
ECB President Lagarde: revamped repo facility...
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Feb 13
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$1.19
$1.18
-0.9%
|
LONG
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@ReutersBiz
|
How to boost the international role of the euro https://t.co/LAuxhs363H https://t.co/LAuxhs363H |
@ReutersBiz
How to boost the international role of the eu...
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Feb 05
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$1.18
$1.18
-0.0%
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The ECB has already cut 200bps to 2%, but is expected to hold policy steady due to decent growth, tight labor markets (multi-decade lows), and subdued inflation, showing little urgency to ease further. In contrast, the US Fed is expected to aggressively argue for easier policy, making the US an "easy money outlier." The divergence between a cautious, holding ECB and a dovish Fed implies relative strength for the Euro against the US Dollar. The author explicitly states exchange rates are where divergences will be reflected. Long EUR/USD to capitalize on the relative tightening/holding stance of the ECB versus the easing stance of the Fed. The ECB could surprise with further cuts if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly, or the Fed could be less dovish than anticipated, reducing the divergence. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|