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Feb 14
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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Google DeepMind's Gemini 3 Deep Think shows record-breaking performance in complex scientific, research, and engineering challenges, including optimizing semiconductor material fabrication. Isomorphic Labs (Alphabet subsidiary) launched IsoDDE, a "full-cycle" drug design engine, significantly improving drug discovery. Alphabet (Google's parent company) is demonstrating leadership in foundational AI research and its application across multiple high-value sectors (semiconductors, biotech). These advancements solidify its competitive edge in AI and open new potential revenue streams or efficiency gains across its diverse portfolio. Long Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) as a diversified play on advanced AI innovation, benefiting from breakthroughs in core AI reasoning and specialized applications like drug discovery and materials science. Intense competition from other tech giants in AI development; regulatory scrutiny on AI dominance; failure to commercialize these advanced AI capabilities effectively; significant R&D costs without proportional returns. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
|
Coinbase has launched "Agentic Wallets" enabling autonomous AI agents to hold funds, execute trades, and pay for resources, removing human bottlenecks and signaling the arrival of the "Agentic Web" with gasless trading on Base. This infrastructure positions Coinbase at the forefront of the emerging AI-driven financial ecosystem. Increased autonomous agent activity will drive transaction volumes, user growth on Base, and potentially new revenue streams for Coinbase, as it becomes the gateway for AI's financial interactions. Long Coinbase (COIN) as a direct beneficiary of the "Agentic Web" and the increasing financial autonomy of AI agents, leveraging its infrastructure and Base network. Regulatory backlash against autonomous AI financial activity; security breaches or vulnerabilities in Agentic Wallets; intense competition from other crypto exchanges or decentralized protocols; slower-than-expected adoption of AI agents in finance. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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Isomorphic Labs' IsoDDE more than doubles AlphaFold 3's accuracy in drug design, enabling the discovery of drugs for previously "undruggable" diseases like KRAS and Cereblon. Deep Origin also has a comparable physics-informed docking engine. This represents a paradigm shift in drug discovery, potentially leading to a wave of new drug candidates and treatments for complex diseases. Companies that are either developing these advanced AI platforms or are early adopters of such technologies in their R&D pipelines stand to gain significantly from accelerated and more effective drug development. Long Biotech Innovation ETF (e.g., ARKG, XBI) or specific biotech companies heavily investing in AI-driven drug discovery, as the IsoDDE breakthrough signals a new era of accelerated and more effective drug development. High failure rates inherent in drug development; regulatory hurdles for new AI-designed drugs; intense competition in the AI drug discovery space; long lead times for commercialization; ethical concerns surrounding AI in drug design. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
|
Gemini 3 Deep Think is designed to solve complex scientific, research, and engineering challenges, including optimizing fabrication methods for new semiconductor materials. The performance metrics are record-breaking. The ability of AI to design and optimize semiconductor material fabrication methods will accelerate innovation and efficiency in the semiconductor industry. This implies a continued, if not increased, demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and specialized materials, as well as the chips themselves, to support these AI-driven advancements. Long Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers (e.g., ASML, AMAT, LRCX) or a Semiconductor ETF (e.g., SMH, SOXX) as they will benefit from the AI-driven acceleration in materials science and fabrication optimization, leading to higher demand for their products and services. Cyclical downturns in the semiconductor industry; geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains; oversupply of chips; slower-than-expected adoption of AI in manufacturing optimization. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power
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Feb 14
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SHORT
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chumba
Substack author, The Cookie Chumbles
|
"Odds of downside actualizing are elevated" for equities, driven by risks to employment flows (401k buying), Fed liquidity, and AI-driven labor displacement. "Retail participation in stocks all time highs. Cash levels all time lows." The combination of macro headwinds (Fed tightening, de-globalization), structural shifts (AI's impact on employment and corporate FCF), and extreme bullish sentiment creates a high probability of a broad market correction or bear market. 3. |
The Cookie Chumbles
Doomer or Boomer
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Feb 14
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SHORT
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chumba
Substack author, The Cookie Chumbles
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"Hyperscaler buybacks are trending to zero as these businesses *must* reinvest their free cashflow into growth capex to maintain competitiveness." This makes them capital-intensive, not "the greatest businesses in the entire world." The core investment thesis for these companies (capital-light, high FCF, massive buybacks) is eroding, leading to lower FCF and potentially lower multiples as they become more like traditional capital-intensive businesses. Take short positions or underweight large-cap technology companies heavily reliant on AI capex to defend their competitive position, as their FCF generation and buyback capacity diminish. AI capex leads to unforeseen productivity gains and new revenue streams; open-source/Chinese models fail to catch up; market continues to value growth over FCF. |
The Cookie Chumbles
Doomer or Boomer
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Feb 14
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SHORT
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chumba
Substack author, The Cookie Chumbles
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"The Nasdaq looks like it has been in distribution since October 2025." The author explicitly states owning "some small amount of QQQ put options through April." This implies a technical breakdown and bearish sentiment for the index, supported by broader macro arguments like halting hyperscaler buybacks, threatened employment flows, and a hawkish Fed. Take short exposure to the Nasdaq 100, potentially via put options or direct shorting, anticipating a significant correction or bear market. Timing could be off (AI impacts 3 years away); Fed successfully manages balance sheet transition; hyperscaler ROIC remains high and employment flows are not significantly impacted. |
The Cookie Chumbles
Doomer or Boomer
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Feb 12
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SHORT
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Michael Burry
Substack author, Cassandra Unchained
|
Michael Burry's title "Palantir’s New Clothes: Foundry, AIP, & the Failure of Reason" strongly implies a critical, likely bearish, view on Palantir's fundamental value or business model, suggesting its perceived strengths might be illusory. He also highlights internal disconnects and leadership inefficiencies (Karp's "hard way" approach). Michael Burry is a renowned contrarian investor known for identifying overvalued assets and systemic flaws. His use of the "Emperor's New Clothes" metaphor, combined with the focus on internal friction and leadership style, suggests he believes the market is mispricing Palantir due to a lack of fundamental strength or operational efficiency. Initiate a short position on Palantir (PLTR) based on Burry's implied bearish thesis regarding its fundamental value and operational effectiveness, despite market hype. The post is an introduction and lacks specific financial data or a fully developed bearish argument. Palantir's stock could continue to be driven by market sentiment, growth narratives, or actual strong performance in its core products that Burry has not yet addressed. Burry's "appreciation" for Karp, though qualified, could be misinterpreted. |
Cassandra Unchained
Palantir’s New Clothes: Foundry, AIP, & the F...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"increasing corporate capex will be enough to finally get hiring and wage growth going again." "Private sector hiring was particularly robust." Increased corporate capital expenditure (capex) and robust private sector hiring are indicators of business expansion and investment. Companies within the industrial sector, which provide equipment, services, and infrastructure for other businesses, are direct beneficiaries of this trend. LONG Industrials sector (e.g., XLI ETF) due to anticipated increases in corporate capex and strong private sector hiring signaling broader business expansion. Corporate capex growth slows or reverses; overall economic growth falters; geopolitical events disrupt investment plans or supply chains. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." "‘26 will bring a more positive environment." Small-cap companies are often more domestically focused and highly sensitive to the health of the US economy and its labor market. A strengthening US economy, driven by job growth and rising incomes, provides a strong tailwind for small-cap earnings and valuations. LONG Small-Cap US Equities (e.g., IWM ETF for Russell 2000) on the back of an improving domestic economic outlook and labor market strength. Economic recovery falters; higher interest rates disproportionately impact smaller, often more leveraged, companies; broader market downturn. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"Household spending remains pretty strong while income growth has fallen. ... The latest data pushes the odds that we land on the positive side of that knife’s edge... gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." If incomes rise to meet strong household spending, consumers will have greater disposable income, directly benefiting companies in the consumer discretionary sector. LONG Consumer Discretionary sector (e.g., XLY ETF) on the expectation of rising nominal incomes supporting continued strong household demand. Incomes fail to rise or household spending unexpectedly contracts; broader economic slowdown; shifts in consumer sentiment. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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Feb 12
|
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "In an environment of such low labor supply... it won’t take much to put a positive squeeze on labor." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." A strengthening labor market, potential for wage growth, and rising incomes imply a more robust economy and potential inflationary pressures. This would likely lead to a more hawkish Federal Reserve or delayed rate cuts, pushing interest rates higher and negatively impacting fixed income assets. SHORT US Treasuries (e.g., via a TBT ETF or directly shorting bond futures) on expectations of a stronger economy and potential inflationary pressures leading to higher interest rates. Labor market strength proves temporary; wage growth remains subdued; the Fed adopts a more dovish stance than expected; an unforeseen economic downturn. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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Feb 11
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SHORT
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Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
|
Software companies, particularly Vertical SaaS, digital advertising platforms, and portions of fintech, are experiencing an "AI Disruption Discount." Their high historical valuations (e.g., 30x revenue multiples) are being repriced due to the threat of agentic AI posing existential challenges to their business models, questioning the durability of moats like high switching costs and sticky UX. The market's uncertainty regarding AI's impact on software moats is leading to a sustained re-evaluation and downward pressure on valuations. This repricing is driven by the *threat* of AI, not just its actual impact, suggesting further downside as investors grapple with unknown future competitive landscapes. The software sector, particularly segments vulnerable to AI disruption, faces continued valuation compression and underperformance as capital rotates to more resilient "atoms" plays. Investors should avoid or short companies in these segments lacking clear, AI-proof moats. AI's impact on these sectors proves less disruptive than anticipated, incumbents successfully integrate AI to strengthen their moats, or a broader market rally lifts all boats regardless of fundamental shifts. |
Citrini Research
Atoms vs Bits
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
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Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US) operates the sole uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion facility in the United States (Metropolis Works), representing ~20% of global capacity. The global conversion market is structurally tight due to Russian sanctions and competitors running near capacity. SOLS' legacy contracts, struck at $20/kgU, are rolling off and being replaced at the current spot price of ~$64/kgU, effectively tripling revenue per unit. This repricing will largely occur by 2028/2029, leading to an explosion in AES segment EBITDA margins to 60%. The market is currently undervaluing SOLS' nuclear segment, assigning it a 7.6x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2028, significantly lower than US pure-play enrichment (LEU at 33x) or Cameco's fuel services (14-17x). The guaranteed repricing of legacy contracts, combined with structural demand growth from new reactors, SMRs, and AI-driven nuclear PPAs, provides a clear path to substantial margin expansion and a re-rating of the stock. SOLS is a deeply undervalued monopoly in a critical, supply-constrained "atoms" market, with guaranteed margin expansion from contract repricing and significant upside from a burgeoning nuclear renaissance. A fair valuation of 12-14x EV/EBITDA for the AES segment could imply $95-105 per share, representing substantial upside. Slower-than-expected contract repricing, a significant drop in spot uranium conversion prices, operational issues at the Metropolis plant, new competitive entrants, or a slowdown in global nuclear energy expansion plans. |
Citrini Research
Atoms vs Bits
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Feb 11
|
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LONG
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Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
|
The "atoms" trade is evolving beyond crowded plays into specialized Advanced Materials & Processes. These companies operate in concentrated markets (duopolies, oligopolies, monopolies) with high barriers to entry (decades of process knowledge, stringent quality, long customer qualifications). They sell into sectors with multiple tailwinds: defense (Trump's $1.5T budget, NATO, Japan), electrification, aerospace (historic backlog), and AI (data center buildout). These materials are protected by physics, technical barriers, defense restrictions, chronic underinvestment, and quality requirements, making them resilient to competition and supply chain disruptions. The convergence of cyclical demand recovery and structural spending increases means the market is currently underpricing these names, often valuing them based on only one tailwind. This sector represents the "next evolution" of the "atoms" trade, offering companies with strong moats, pricing power, and multiple, converging demand drivers. These businesses are fundamentally resilient to AI disruption and are poised for significant outperformance as capital continues to rotate from "bits" to "atoms." Global economic slowdown impacting industrial demand, geopolitical shifts reducing defense spending, unexpected technological breakthroughs that reduce demand for specific materials, or a failure of the market to recognize the confluence of tailwinds. |
Citrini Research
Atoms vs Bits
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Feb 11
|
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
After a period of significant volatility and retail-driven froth, short-term flows into the gold market have normalized. Indicators such as ETF flows, Chinese premium, futures positioning, and options volatility have returned to subdued or normal levels, and the market appears to have sustainably bottomed. The removal of speculative excesses, combined with persistent favorable long-term structural and policy dynamics, creates an "all clear" signal for investors to re-enter the gold market, anticipating a more sustainable and gentle upward trend. Go long gold, as the market has cleared its recent speculative froth, and underlying fundamentals are now supported by normalized short-term flows, suggesting a stable appreciation for investors with a medium to long-term horizon. A sudden resurgence of unsustainable speculative interest leading to another sharp correction; unexpected shifts in global monetary or fiscal policy that undermine gold's appeal; a significant strengthening of the US dollar or a sharp rise in real interest rates. |
Nonconsensus
All Clear To Dive Back Into Gold
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Feb 10
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SHORT
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Geo Chen
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
|
The author identifies a secular dollar bear market driven by geopolitical trust erosion, Trump's trade policies, and active de-dollarization efforts by countries like China. Furthermore, incoming Fed Chair Warsh is expected to cut rates more aggressively than the market anticipates (to 2.50% vs. 3.10% terminal rate priced). Aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, combined with ongoing geopolitical pressures on the dollar's reserve status, will exert significant downward pressure on the USD, creating a short opportunity. Bet on a weaker US Dollar against a basket of currencies or specific pairs, anticipating a repricing of Fed rate expectations and continued de-dollarization trends. Warsh does not cut rates as aggressively; other major central banks cut rates even faster; unexpected global risk-off events could temporarily boost safe-haven demand for the USD. |
Fidenza Macro
The end of the bull market or just a pause fo...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Geo Chen
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
|
The market is currently pricing in a terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.10%, but the author believes incoming Fed Chair Warsh will cut rates more aggressively, potentially to 2.50% (25bp every quarter). This significant divergence between market pricing and the author's expectation for Warsh's policy implies that the front end of the yield curve is due for a repricing, leading to lower short-term yields and higher bond prices. Position for lower short-term interest rates by going long short-term US Treasuries or related interest rate futures, anticipating more aggressive Fed rate cuts than currently priced. Warsh's actual policy stance differs from expectations; inflation proves more persistent, limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates; unforeseen financial system stress could alter the Fed's path. |
Fidenza Macro
The end of the bull market or just a pause fo...
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Feb 10
|
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WATCH
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Geo Chen
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
|
Gold and silver are in a correction phase after a parabolic rise, with the author expecting a period of sideways, choppy price action for "a few months to a year." However, the underlying monetary and geopolitical drivers (dollar bear market, de-dollarization, rising gold share of reserves) remain strongly supportive for a long-term bull market continuation. The current correction offers an opportunity to monitor for signs of equilibrium and accumulation before the next leg up in the secular bull market, similar to the 2006 analog. Monitor gold and silver for signs of bottoming and consolidation within the next 3-12 months, with a view to establishing long positions for a multi-year uptrend. The correction could be deeper or more prolonged than anticipated; Warsh's Fed policy could be less dovish on rates or more hawkish on QT than expected; a significant global economic downturn could temporarily dampen speculative demand for precious metals. |
Fidenza Macro
The end of the bull market or just a pause fo...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"real growth in the economy continues to power on, mostly driven by pretty good household consumption" due to "households are drawing down their savings to keep their spending going." This creates a "jobless expansion favoring companies fed by an ongoing flow of dissaving." With households having "room to save less given all the wealth built up," and the general consumer "chugging along" (outside of Jan autos), companies catering to discretionary spending (excluding the noted weak auto sector) should see sustained demand. Long consumer discretionary stocks/ETFs (excluding auto manufacturers/dealers) to capitalize on robust consumer spending fueled by dissaving and wealth effects, despite weak income growth. A significant decline in asset markets could reduce household net worth, curtailing dissaving capacity. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or a broad increase in unemployment could also undermine consumer confidence and spending. |
Nonconsensus
Dissaving Drives Decent Demand
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Feb 10
|
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"It seems the asset markets are driving the real economy these days, not the other way around." This leads to a "jobless expansion favoring companies fed by an ongoing flow of dissaving." If asset markets are driving the real economy, continued strength in asset values (equities) can create a positive feedback loop, encouraging further dissaving and consumption. This environment is generally supportive of broad market indices and growth-oriented companies that benefit from sustained demand and wealth effects. Long broad market ETFs (like SPY) or growth-focused ETFs (like QQQ) to benefit from the positive feedback loop where asset markets drive the real economy, supported by ongoing household dissaving. A significant correction in equity markets would directly undermine the "asset markets driving the real economy" thesis. Unexpectedly aggressive Fed tightening due to persistent inflation could also dampen market sentiment. |
Nonconsensus
Dissaving Drives Decent Demand
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Feb 10
|
|
WATCH
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"car sales were a notable weak spot in Jan (aligning with the JPM data above)." "most of the weakness we have seen Jan is related to a very weak autos print." The author suggests "relatively extreme cold, snow played an important role." The auto sector showed specific weakness in January, potentially due to temporary factors like weather. While the broader consumer is strong, this specific segment experienced a notable slowdown. Watch the auto sector for signs of recovery in February/March, as the January weakness might be transient and weather-related rather than indicative of a fundamental shift in consumer demand for vehicles. A sustained rebound would negate the short-term negative signal. If the January auto weakness proves to be more fundamental (e.g., affordability issues, saturation) rather than temporary, the sector could face continued headwinds. |
Nonconsensus
Dissaving Drives Decent Demand
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Feb 08
|
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
Bob Elliott states he has "positioned for Easy Street ahead" and simplified his thematic trade to "stocks vs US bonds." "Easy Street ahead" implies a positive outlook for risk assets, specifically US equities, relative to the more conservative US bond market. This suggests a belief in continued economic growth or a benign environment for equity performance where equities outperform fixed income. Overweight US equities and underweight US bonds in a portfolio, or consider a long equity / short bond pair trade using broad market ETFs (e.g., SPY/VOO vs. TLT/AGG). Unexpected economic downturn, significant rise in interest rates, or a flight to safety that boosts bond prices. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08
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Feb 08
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SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
Bob Elliott observes that "momo favorite software stocks implode and old school value companies surge." This indicates a significant and ongoing market rotation away from high-growth, high-multiple software companies towards more fundamentally sound, potentially undervalued "old school value" companies. This trend, if sustained, offers a relative value opportunity. Initiate a pair trade: Short an ETF tracking software or growth stocks (e.g., IGV, ARKK) and Long an ETF tracking value stocks (e.g., RPV, VTV). The rotation could reverse quickly, driven by a renewed appetite for growth or a broader market downturn that impacts all equities. Value stocks could become overbought. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08
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Feb 08
|
|
WATCH
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
Bob Elliott highlights upcoming Japanese wage data (released during Super Bowl) and a "fading currency rally after threats of intervention," noting he needs to "refresh my thinking here." Strong wage data could signal a shift in the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially leading to JPY appreciation. However, the "fading currency rally" and intervention threats introduce significant uncertainty. The author's need to refresh thinking suggests a complex and potentially volatile situation. Monitor Japanese wage data, BoJ commentary, and JPY price action closely for a clearer directional signal. Avoid taking a strong directional stance until more clarity emerges, but be prepared for potential volatility in JPY (e.g., FXY) and Japanese equities (e.g., EWJ). BoJ maintains dovish stance, actual currency intervention, global risk-off sentiment driving safe-haven flows into JPY despite domestic factors. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08
|
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Feb 07
|
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
|
President Trump's "Project Vault" establishes a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, backed by $10 billion from EXIM Bank and private capital, to counter China's dominance and secure supply chains. This includes bilateral agreements with 11 countries. This initiative creates a stable price floor and guaranteed demand for non-Chinese critical mineral sources. Government funding and international partnerships will de-risk investments in mining, processing, and refining outside of China, leading to |
Chamath Palihapitiya
SpaceX-xAI Merger: The $1.25T Company
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Feb 06
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"Household income growth remains soft... savings rate declines require elevated wealth levels, which are likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." Also, "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A frozen labor market with soft income growth reduces inflationary pressure from wages, providing the central bank with more room to pursue accommodative "Easy Street policies." These policies (e.g., lower interest rates, liquidity) typically support higher valuations for growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, by lowering the discount rate on future earnings. Long growth stocks/tech sector on the expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy due to a stagnant labor market and soft income growth, which supports asset valuations. A sudden pickup in inflation (non-wage related), an unexpected hawkish pivot by the central bank despite labor market data, or a significant deterioration in corporate earnings. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
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Feb 06
|
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SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"Household income growth remains soft... likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A stagnant labor market with soft income growth reduces the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy and increases the probability of "Easy Street policies" (i.e., lower rates or a more accommodative stance). This dovish tilt, especially if other major central banks are perceived as relatively more hawkish or maintaining tighter policy, could lead to a weaker US Dollar. Short the US Dollar on expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the Fed due to a frozen labor market and soft income growth, which could diminish the dollar's yield advantage. Other central banks become even more dovish, global risk-off events drive safe-haven demand for USD, or the US economy shows unexpected strength. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
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Feb 06
|
|
WATCH
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"Household income growth remains soft, savings rate declines are needed to maintain elevated spending, and savings rate declines require elevated wealth levels..." Consumer spending, particularly in discretionary areas, is currently sustained by dissaving and elevated wealth rather than robust income growth. This makes it potentially vulnerable if wealth levels decline or if the ability/willingness to dissave diminishes. While "Easy Street policies" are expected to support wealth, the underlying income weakness is a structural headwind. Watch Consumer Discretionary for signs of weakness, as current spending is not supported by strong organic income growth and relies on potentially unsustainable factors. A short position could be considered if wealth support falters. "Easy Street policies" continue to inflate asset prices, sustaining wealth levels and consumer confidence. A sudden pickup in hiring and income growth. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
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Feb 05
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The ECB has already cut 200bps to 2%, but is expected to hold policy steady due to decent growth, tight labor markets (multi-decade lows), and subdued inflation, showing little urgency to ease further. In contrast, the US Fed is expected to aggressively argue for easier policy, making the US an "easy money outlier." The divergence between a cautious, holding ECB and a dovish Fed implies relative strength for the Euro against the US Dollar. The author explicitly states exchange rates are where divergences will be reflected. Long EUR/USD to capitalize on the relative tightening/holding stance of the ECB versus the easing stance of the Fed. The ECB could surprise with further cuts if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly, or the Fed could be less dovish than anticipated, reducing the divergence. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
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Feb 05
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The BoJ "seems forced to hike in response to the FX pressures," implying a move towards tightening. This, combined with the Fed aggressively arguing for easier policy, creates a significant policy divergence. A tightening BoJ (leading to JPY strength) and an easing Fed (leading to USD weakness) creates a strong fundamental case for USD/JPY depreciation. Short USD/JPY to capitalize on the relative tightening of the BoJ and the easing of the Fed. The BoJ's hike could be a "one-and-done" or less impactful than expected, or the Fed's easing could be less aggressive, reducing the divergence. Geopolitical events could also drive safe-haven flows into USD. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
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Feb 05
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The RBA became the first major central bank to hike rates in 2026, forced by a "swift reacceleration" of the Aussie economy and inflation bouncing to near 4%. This explicit tightening contrasts sharply with the Fed's expected easy money policy. The RBA's active tightening cycle, driven by a hot economy, provides a strong fundamental tailwind for the Australian Dollar, especially when juxtaposed with a dovish US Fed. Long AUD/USD to capture the positive carry and capital appreciation from the RBA's tightening cycle relative to the Fed's easing. Australian economic reacceleration could prove temporary, leading the RBA to reverse course, or global risk sentiment could deteriorate, weighing on commodity-linked currencies like AUD. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
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Feb 05
|
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The BoE is expected to hold policy steady due to annoyingly elevated inflation and strong recent survey data, despite weakening labor markets. This cautious stance contrasts with the Fed's anticipated aggressive push for easier policy. The relative hawkishness/holding of the BoE compared to the dovish Fed creates an opportunity for GBP appreciation against the USD. Long GBP/USD to benefit from the BoE's cautious stance and the Fed's expected dovishness. UK inflation could fall faster than expected, prompting the BoE to cut rates more aggressively, or the Fed could pivot to a less dovish stance. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|
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Feb 04
|
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LONG
|
Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
|
China controls 80-95% of global solar manufacturing, leading to Western supply chain dependency with no fast rebuild path. Chamath explicitly asks, "Where does the opportunity for U.S. energy dominance exist while China controls 80% of global hardware manufacturing?" This strategic vulnerability and the desire for "U.S. energy dominance" will likely drive significant policy support (e.g., tax credits, subsidies, tariffs, domestic content requirements) to incentivize domestic solar manufacturing and supply chain development in the US and other Western nations. Long opportunities in US-based solar manufacturing companies (polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules) or those focused on rebuilding Western supply chains, anticipating strong government backing and strategic investment. Continued overwhelming cost advantage of Chinese manufacturers, insufficient or inconsistent policy support, slow ramp-up of Western capacity, geopolitical tensions escalating beyond economic incentives. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year
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Feb 04
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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Utility-scale solar projects are reaching multi-gigawatt scale, with data centers, manufacturers, and hyperscalers increasingly contracting directly through long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Data center operators alone signed over 40% of all clean energy PPAs in 2024. This indicates robust, predictable demand from large, creditworthy corporate off-takers for long-term solar power, de-risking development and ensuring stable revenue streams for utility-scale solar providers. The "cheapest major source of new electricity" status further underpins this demand. Long positions in companies specializing in developing, owning, and operating large-scale solar farms, particularly those with a strong PPA pipeline with corporate off-takers like data centers. Grid connection bottlenecks, intermittency issues requiring significant storage investment (which adds cost), rising interest rates impacting project financing, policy changes affecting PPAs or incentives. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year
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Feb 04
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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Distributed solar bypasses rising transmission, distribution, and grid delivery costs by generating electricity where it is consumed. Aggregated distributed systems (Virtual Power Plants or VPPs) can coordinate thousands of rooftops and batteries to deliver capacity comparable to traditional gas plants during peak hours. This model addresses the "last mile" cost problem of electricity, offers direct cost savings to consumers, and provides valuable grid relief and stability services through VPPs. It represents a significant growth area as grid infrastructure costs continue to rise. Long opportunities in companies involved in residential/commercial distributed solar installations, battery storage solutions, and virtual power plant aggregation software/services. Regulatory hurdles for VPP integration, high upfront costs for consumers (though declining), competition from utility-scale projects, technological obsolescence, local grid constraints. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year
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Feb 04
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SHORT
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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Solar is now the cheapest major source of new electricity ($30–$40 per MWh LCOE) compared to coal and gas ($50–$150+ per MWh). The world installed more new solar generation than coal, gas, nuclear, wind, and hydro put together last year. The significant cost advantage and rapid deployment of solar will increasingly displace traditional fossil fuel generation, leading to reduced utilization, declining profitability, and potential stranded assets for companies heavily reliant on coal and gas power plants. Short positions or AVOID on companies primarily engaged in the operation and development of coal and gas-fired power plants, as their competitive position erodes and market share declines. Slower-than-expected solar deployment, grid stability issues requiring fossil fuel backup, policy reversals favoring fossil fuels, unexpected increases in solar costs, geopolitical events impacting energy supply. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year
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Feb 03
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SHORT
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Michael Burry
Substack author, Cassandra Unchained
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Burry highlights the widespread and growing problem of severe childbirth injuries due to a profound lack of access to basic emergency medical care in poor, rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. He explicitly notes a "growing need" for certain interventions. This indicates deep-seated systemic issues, including underdeveloped healthcare infrastructure, pervasive poverty, and potentially governance failures, which are fundamental impediments to long-term economic development and social stability in these regions. Burry's "Cassandra" moniker suggests he sees overlooked fragility that could manifest as future underperformance. Shorting or avoiding broad-market ETFs or companies with significant, undifferentiated exposure to the general economic health or stability of these specific emerging markets, as the underlying social and health crises suggest higher unpriced risks and lower long-term growth potential than commonly assumed. Philanthropic efforts or unexpected government reforms could improve conditions faster than anticipated; commodity booms could temporarily boost economies despite social issues; other global macro factors could overshadow regional problems. |
Cassandra Unchained
February 2026 Cassandra Unchained Charity of ...
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Feb 03
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AVOID
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Michael Burry
Substack author, Cassandra Unchained
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The problem is a lack of access to *emergency medical care* and basic infrastructure for women in "poor, rural areas" of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The "growing need" is for fundamental, accessible care. Companies whose growth narratives heavily depend on expanding into these specific emerging markets with high-cost healthcare solutions or complex infrastructure might face significant challenges in profitability and market penetration due to the extreme poverty and lack of foundational healthcare systems. The "need" is for very low-cost, basic solutions, which often do not align with the profit models of large, publicly traded healthcare companies. Avoid or watch companies that are heavily promoting or investing in high-cost healthcare expansion into these specific regions, as the underlying issues highlighted by Burry suggest a market that cannot profitably support such ventures without substantial external aid or a fundamental shift in business model. Companies might pivot to very low-cost, high-volume solutions; philanthropic partnerships could subsidize their entry; governments might prioritize healthcare spending. |
Cassandra Unchained
February 2026 Cassandra Unchained Charity of ...
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Feb 03
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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Bob Elliott, a previously cautious analyst, has shifted to a bullish stance on US equities. He highlights strong underlying fundamentals: resilient consumer spending, rising business dissaving driven by AI investment, robust corporate profit growth (double-digits overall, mid-20s for tech), and all-time high margins. Despite this, US stocks have traded flat since October, lagging other asset classes, and market reactions to positive economic data and strong 4Q earnings beats (expectations rising from 8% to 12%) have been unusually subdued. Short-term analyst expectations remain stable and subdued. The significant disconnect between strong, improving fundamentals and flat, underperforming price action, coupled with low short-term expectations, creates a contrarian buying opportunity. The author explicitly states the "nonconsensus view is in favor of US equities," suggesting that the market has not yet priced in the improving conditions, setting the stage for a potential re-rating and catch-up rally. The cooling of "Mag7" and strengthening of the "broader market" points to a healthier, more sustainable rally. Long a broad US equity market ETF (e.g., VTI or ITOT) to capitalize on the improving economic and corporate fundamentals, strong earnings growth, and the potential for a significant catch-up rally as the market recognizes these unpriced positives. This is a contrarian play against recent subdued price action. A sudden deterioration in economic data, unexpected hawkish shifts in monetary or fiscal policy, a significant geopolitical event, or a failure of market sentiment to shift despite strong fundamentals. |
Nonconsensus
The Case For US Stocks
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Feb 02
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WATCH
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Michael Burry
Substack author, Cassandra Unchained
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Burry explicitly states that "the volatility at present make it difficult to write with any depth before the situation significantly changes." This direct observation by Burry underscores that current market volatility is a significant, pervasive factor influencing market dynamics and investor decision-making. While he doesn't predict its direction, his emphasis on its presence and impact suggests it's a critical metric for all market participants to monitor. Given Burry's acknowledgment of high and rapidly changing volatility, investors should closely watch volatility indices (like the VIX) and related instruments. This monitoring can provide insights into market sentiment, potential systemic risks, and opportunities for hedging or tactical positioning in a fast-moving market. Burry does not specify whether he expects volatility to increase, decrease, or remain elevated. Volatility can be mean-reverting, and a period of high volatility might quickly subside, or it could persist and intensify. Watching the VIX is an observation strategy, not a directional trade, but misinterpreting its future trajectory could lead to poor investment decisions if a directional bet were to be made based on this observation alone. |
Cassandra Unchained
Short Thoughts: February 2, 2026
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Feb 02
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The dollar has moved only a tad and is still around last summer's levels, despite the increasing likelihood of easy policy ahead. Politically driven easy monetary policy will likely diminish the dollar's relative attractiveness, leading to its devaluation against other currencies. Short the US dollar to capitalize on its underpricing of future easy monetary policy and the associated reduction in its value. Other major central banks could pursue even easier policies, or global risk-off events could trigger safe-haven demand for the dollar. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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Feb 02
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AVOID
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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Gold is up a ton, Copper has surged, and Brent is up a tad, indicating that the easy policy flow is already largely priced into these hard assets. They showed the highest beta in the recent "mania." The author explicitly states that "it isn’t the metals" where Easy Street momentum is modestly priced in, implying they are already fully priced for this theme. Avoid or reduce exposure to metals, as their recent run-up has likely already discounted the expected easy policy, and new momentum based on this theme is likely elsewhere. Unexpected geopolitical events, supply shocks, or higher-than-expected inflation could drive further demand for metals regardless of monetary policy pricing. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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Feb 02
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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Stocks have traded flat despite strong economic stats and good earnings, and the Fed is expected to deliver easy policies to juice the economy. Metals, in contrast, have already surged. The "Easy Street" policy momentum and strong fundamentals are underpriced in equities compared to other financial assets where this is already discounted. Long broad equities to capitalize on the expected flow of easy policy and robust economic performance that is not yet fully reflected in stock prices. Economic data could unexpectedly weaken, corporate earnings could disappoint, or the Fed could surprise with a more hawkish stance than anticipated. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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Feb 02
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The yield curve has only modestly steepened, and 2yr rates have hardly moved, despite the increasing clarity of easy policy ahead from a politically influenced Fed. Politically motivated easy policy will likely anchor short-term rates, while longer-term rates could rise due to expectations of growth and potential inflation fueled by easy money. Position for a steeper yield curve, benefiting from the divergence between suppressed short-term rates and potentially rising longer-term rates in a pro-growth, easy-money environment. Economic growth could falter, leading to a flattening or inversion, or the Fed could implement unexpected tightening at the short end. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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Feb 01
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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US stocks are "only up a little over 1% for the month," lagging other financial assets, despite a "significant surge in hard data, and clear bottoming in soft data" indicating a pickup in US economic conditions. The author states, "the case for stocks is building." If the improving US economic conditions continue to strengthen, US equities, currently undervalued relative to this backdrop and other surging assets, are likely to experience a catch-up rally or relative outperformance. LONG US Equities (e.g., via broad market ETFs like SPY or VOO) expecting them to outperform other financial assets as the underlying economic strength is increasingly priced in. A broader market correction due to the "mania" could drag down US stocks. Economic data could unexpectedly weaken, or higher interest rates from persistent "debasement" could negatively impact valuations. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
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Feb 01
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The author explicitly mentions "gains for the month in gold" and links this performance directly to "debasement price action." Gold traditionally serves as a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. If the "debasement" theme persists, gold is likely to continue performing well, offering a protective asset in an environment of asset "mania" and stronger growth. LONG Gold (e.g., via GLD or IAU) as a strategic hedge against ongoing currency debasement and potential inflationary pressures. A significant reversal in the "debasement" theme, a sharp rise in real interest rates, or a strong dollar rally could negatively impact gold prices. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
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Feb 01
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The author reports "losses short financial assets (mania) and long 2yrs (stronger than expected growth)" in their portfolio. Additionally, the RBA is expected to hike rates, signaling the |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
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Feb 01
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The author explicitly notes "debasement price action" and reports gains from a "short dollar position" in their portfolio, consistent with this theme. Despite stronger US economic growth, the author's portfolio performance suggests that the "debasement" theme (implying currency weakening or inflation) is a dominant force, potentially overriding traditional dollar strength from economic outperformance. SHORT US Dollar (e.g., via UUP or specific currency pairs like EUR/USD LONG, AUD/USD LONG given RBA's likely hike) anticipating continued currency debasement. A significant global risk-off event could trigger a flight to safety into the dollar. US economic outperformance could become so strong that it forces a more hawkish Fed stance, strengthening the dollar. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
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Jan 31
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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Google DeepMind just published AlphaGenome, an AI model that significantly advances DNA analysis, particularly for non-coding DNA, and has been released for free, non-commercial use to accelerate research and personalized gene therapies. AlphaGenome is a product of Google DeepMind, directly enhancing Alphabet's intellectual property and demonstrating its leadership in cutting-edge AI research with profound real-world applications. This innovation strengthens Alphabet's position as a dominant force in AI, with potential long-term benefits across its cloud, healthcare, and research divisions, even if direct monetization isn't immediate. Long Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) due to its continued innovation in AI, exemplified by AlphaGenome, which reinforces its competitive advantage and potential for future growth in high-impact sectors like biotech and healthcare. Broader market downturns, increased regulatory scrutiny on large tech companies, or slower-than-expected commercialization of DeepMind's research. |
Chamath Palihapitiya
Neuralink's 21 Telepathy Trials in 2 Years
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