|
Feb 17
|
|
$116.04
$117.02
+0.8%
|
WATCH
|
Unknown Speaker
Financial Commentator/Analyst
|
"There's still some uncertainty with regards to how tariffs are going to play through of some of the smaller businesses, and that could end up hurting the consumer... looking out for signs that stress might start to show up... discretionary spending starts to change." While the consumer is currently "healthy," the speaker identifies a specific transmission mechanism for failure: Tariffs -> Small Business Stress -> Consumer Wallet Impact. This suggests a potential pivot point for discretionary stocks later in 2026. WATCH. Monitor small business data and tariff implementation; if stress appears, shorting discretionary sectors becomes the play. The consumer remains resilient despite tariffs, or tariffs are not implemented as aggressively as feared. |
Bloomberg Markets
Big Bank CEO Compensation Passes 2006, 2021 R...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$116.18
$117.02
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary
|
Bessent claims energy prices are coming down due to deregulation and supply creation, and notes real wage growth is occurring. Lower energy costs act as a tax cut for the consumer. Combined with "real wage growth" and tax incentives (no tax on tips/overtime), discretionary income should expand. LONG Consumer Discretionary. If deregulation fails to lower energy prices or if inflation re-accelerates. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: AT&T CEO John Stankey & Treasury ...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$116.18
$117.02
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Jonathan Golub
Chief US Equity Strategist, UBS
|
Golub notes that for Republicans to hold Congress in the midterms, they need a consumer that feels "heard" regarding affordability. He predicts policy efforts to "ease the burden," which will funnel money through the banking sector and support housing/consumption. This policy tailwind benefits Financials and Consumer Discretionary stocks. LONG Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Rising delinquencies or a hard landing recession. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$116.18
$117.02
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary
|
"Energy is coming down... We are seeing real wage growth... Tax refunds thus far... are up 22%... 2026 is going to be a banquet for the American people." The combination of lower energy costs (a tax cut for consumers), deregulation, and higher tax refunds creates a "disinflationary boom" scenario. If the consumer has more disposable income and inflation (the "terrible tax") falls to 2%, consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) should outperform consumer staples. Long Consumer Discretionary on the "Affordability Recovery" thesis. If inflation proves sticky or energy prices spike due to geopolitical tension, discretionary spending will contract. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Treasury Sec...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$116.18
$117.02
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Jonathan Golub
Chief US Equity Strategist, UBS
|
"In order for Republicans to hold both houses of Congress... there's going to be a lot of effort to ease the burden on consumers... The conduit for that is the financials. You have to prop up the banking sector... Housing stocks, homebuilders like are going to be a focus." This is a political-economy trade. The speaker infers that to win the midterms, the government must artificially stimulate the economy to combat the "affordability" crisis. This requires utilizing banks to distribute liquidity and supporting the housing market (via GSEs buying paper) to lower costs, directly benefiting banks, builders, and consumer stocks. Long Banks, Consumer Discretionary, and Homebuilders as beneficiaries of pre-election fiscal/monetary support. Inflation re-accelerating prevents policy easing; Republicans fail to enact supportive measures. |
Bloomberg Markets
The Tech Basket of Stocks Is 'Incredibly Attr...
|
|
Feb 06
|
|
$117.99
$117.02
-0.8%
|
WATCH
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"Household income growth remains soft, savings rate declines are needed to maintain elevated spending, and savings rate declines require elevated wealth levels..." Consumer spending, particularly in discretionary areas, is currently sustained by dissaving and elevated wealth rather than robust income growth. This makes it potentially vulnerable if wealth levels decline or if the ability/willingness to dissave diminishes. While "Easy Street policies" are expected to support wealth, the underlying income weakness is a structural headwind. Watch Consumer Discretionary for signs of weakness, as current spending is not supported by strong organic income growth and relies on potentially unsustainable factors. A short position could be considered if wealth support falters. "Easy Street policies" continue to inflate asset prices, sustaining wealth levels and consumer confidence. A sudden pickup in hiring and income growth. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
|