| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT |
Peter Tchir
Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities |
Tchir notes we are transitioning to a world where AI disrupts companies with high margins that rely on people and intellectual property, rather than physical assets. The "AI Fear Trade" is targeting companies where headcount can be decimated by LLMs. Investors are unwinding leverage in these names, viewing them as the "victims" of the next industrial revolution. SHORT Software and high-margin tech services that lack physical moats. AI productivity gains could eventually boost margins for these companies rather than destroy them. | 142:33 | |
| LONG |
Peter Tchir
Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities |
Tchir states, "I still love Uranium... I don't see a world that doesn't realize they need nuclear anymore." He emphasizes companies producing "real tangible things, pulling things out of the ground." As AI data centers demand massive electricity, nuclear/uranium becomes a critical bottleneck. Additionally, in a geopolitical fragmentation scenario ("Greenland," "China"), domestic resource production becomes a premium asset. LONG Uranium and physical commodities. Regulatory hurdles or a sudden drop in energy prices. | 8:31 | |
| LONG |
Sarah Hunt
Chief Market Strategist, Alpine Saxon Woods |
Hunt observes investors fleeing to "places that are least vulnerable," specifically mentioning Costco and Walmart as having "giant moats." In an environment of existential tech anxiety (AI replacing jobs), capital rotates to physical retailers selling necessities (toilet paper, food). This is the "Recession/Safety Trade." LONG Staples as a defensive haven. Valuations are already stretched (Walmart mentioned at 50 PE). | 1:08 | |
| LONG |
Jonathan Golub
Chief US Equity Strategist, UBS |
Golub argues the tech basket looks "incredibly attractive" because earnings are "on fire" while multiples have compressed 20%. He explicitly points to "AI semiconductor names and the Nvidias." The market is irrationally punishing the "picks and shovels" (Semis) alongside the "losers" (Software). Strong earnings growth coupled with lower valuations creates a classic buying opportunity for the hardware enablers of AI. LONG AI Semiconductors. CapEx spending by hyperscalers slows down significantly. | — | |
| LONG |
Jonathan Golub
Chief US Equity Strategist, UBS |
Golub notes that for Republicans to hold Congress in the midterms, they need a consumer that feels "heard" regarding affordability. He predicts policy efforts to "ease the burden," which will funnel money through the banking sector and support housing/consumption. This policy tailwind benefits Financials and Consumer Discretionary stocks. LONG Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Rising delinquencies or a hard landing recession. | — | |
| LONG |
Tom Forte
Analyst, Maxim Group |
Forte defends Amazon's $200B CapEx guidance, stating they can "turn it off" if returns aren't there. He argues Apple is down on memory pricing fears but has a history of managing supply chain costs well. The sell-off (Amazon down 16%) is an overreaction to CapEx fears. These companies have the scale to automate (Amazon robotics) and manage costs, making the current dip a buying opportunity. LONG Big Tech on the dip. Continued margin compression from high memory component costs. | 20:46 | |
| LONG |
Jim Caron
CIO, Portfolio Management, Morgan Stanley Investment Management |
Caron identifies a "cyclical broadening" and specifically highlights Caterpillar (CAT) as a "very strong, very old-school" company employing technology well. While software is hit by AI fears, the "real economy" (Industrials) is benefiting from productivity gains and a shift in labor share to skilled trades (electricians, welders). LONG Industrials. Global economic slowdown reducing demand for heavy machinery. | 144:55 | |
| SHORT |
Jonathan Ferro
Anchor, Bloomberg Television |
Breaking news that the Trump Administration/Pentagon is adding Alibaba to a list of firms allegedly helping the Chinese military. This designation often precedes capital flight, procurement bans, or forced divestment by US funds. It introduces unquantifiable regulatory risk. SHORT / AVOID Alibaba. Diplomatic resolution or the designation being symbolic only. | — | |
| LONG |
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television |
Rivian reported its first annual gross profit and announced a new, cheaper mid-size SUV. Stock up ~20-26%. Achieving gross profit profitability validates the business model in a difficult EV market, separating it from failing competitors. LONG Rivian on execution success. Continued cash burn and broader EV demand slowdown. | — | |
| LONG |
News Report
Narrator |
Applied Materials is up ~11% on a rosy forecast for memory chip demand. The AI build-out requires massive amounts of memory (HBM), directly benefiting the equipment suppliers for those chips. LONG AMAT. Cyclical downturn in chip demand. | — | |
| SHORT |
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television |
DraftKings missed revenue/profit expectations and gave a bleak forecast. Stock down 15%. High-growth consumer stocks with no earnings support are being punished severely in this rotation. SHORT DraftKings. Unexpected legalization in new states boosting TAM. | 26:55 | |
| AVOID |
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television |
Expedia posted its best Q4 in three years, yet the stock fell 5.8%. The market is ignoring fundamentals due to "AI Anxiety"—the fear that AI agents will replace travel booking platforms entirely. Good earnings don't matter if the terminal value is questioned. AVOID Expedia (Value trap risk). AI fears prove overblown and stock rerates on fundamentals. | 75:18 |