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Feb 18
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LONG
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Alicia Levine
Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon
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Lazar forecasts a 12% jump in CapEx for 2026, driven by a "manufacturing renaissance" and heavy truck orders. Levine notes a rotation into "dirty businesses" (making things) as capital flows to the physical world. The AI trade is broadening from digital to physical. You cannot build data centers, factories, or energy infrastructure without materials and industrial machinery. This sector benefits from the "goods producing" jobs multiplier. LONG. Cyclicals are the beneficiaries of the "No Landing" / 4% GDP growth scenario. If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to strong growth, financing costs for heavy industry could bite. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Josh Brown
CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
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"Industrials [earnings growth] 26%... This is your earth movers... heavy equipment... building data centers... It's not just a rerate. There is something happening here with capex that's leading to higher revenue." The "HALO" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) thesis suggests capital is rotating out of asset-light software into asset-heavy companies building the physical infrastructure for AI and energy. These companies have tangible moats and are currently delivering the highest earnings growth in the market. LONG Industrials and heavy machinery stocks as the primary beneficiaries of the infrastructure boom. A slowdown in global CapEx spending or a recession curbing construction demand. |
The Compound News
“Unrealized” Capital Gains Tax is Economic Su...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Katie Greifeld
Anchor, Bloomberg
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Treasury yields dropped significantly after the CPI print (10-year down ~15bps this week). The Russell 2000 (Small Caps) outperformed (+1.2%), and sectors like Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials led the market. Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the attractiveness of dividend-yielding sectors. Small caps (IWM) are disproportionately sensitive to rates due to floating-rate debt; as yields fall, their balance sheet pressure eases, prompting capital rotation out of expensive tech and into these value/cyclical pockets. LONG exposure to rate-sensitive sectors and small caps as the "yield relief" trade gains traction. Re-acceleration of inflation causing yields to spike back up. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Steady as Treasury Yields Slip After C...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Peter Tchir
Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities
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Tchir states, "I still love Uranium... I don't see a world that doesn't realize they need nuclear anymore." He emphasizes companies producing "real tangible things, pulling things out of the ground." As AI data centers demand massive electricity, nuclear/uranium becomes a critical bottleneck. Additionally, in a geopolitical fragmentation scenario ("Greenland," "China"), domestic resource production becomes a premium asset. LONG Uranium and physical commodities. Regulatory hurdles or a sudden drop in energy prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Julian Emanuel
Evercore ISI
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Emanuel states that sectors "least likely to be disrupted" by AI are outperforming, specifically naming Metals/Mining, Agriculture, and Consumer Staples. Investors are suffering from "AI Anxiety" regarding white-collar industries (Software, Financials). They are rotating capital into physical industries that AI cannot automate away. This is a "hide from disruption" trade. LONG physical/defensive sectors as a hedge against AI displacement fears. If the "soft landing" narrative strengthens without AI fear, defensive sectors may underperform high-beta growth. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/12/2026
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Lombard Odier has "upgraded our outlook for 2026 in terms of global growth." Better global growth explicitly "bodes well" for cyclical sectors. The speaker states "materials is one sector that we really like" and notes that "metals are playing a very important role" in this environment. LONG. Global growth failing to materialize; commodity price volatility. |
Bloomberg Markets
Software Selloff Is a Chance to Increase Expo...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Josh Brown
CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
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"I am calling those the Halo stocks... heavy assets low obsolescence risk... Can Claude whip up a can of Diet Pepsi? No." In an AI-disrupted world, capital flees replicable code and flows to tangible, physical assets that AI cannot generate. Companies that move atoms (airlines, manufacturers, staples) have a moat that software companies no longer possess. Long "Halo Stocks" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). Global recession reducing demand for physical goods/commodities. |
The Compound News
Is It Time to Buy Software Stocks?
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Feb 09
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AVOID
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Barry Bannister
Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel
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The market is currently betting on a "smooth rotation" out of tech and into cyclical sectors, but Bannister argues this trade is premature. Cyclical stocks depend on a healthy economy and consumer buying power. Currently, wage growth is slowing, hours worked are not cooperating, and job creation is weak. There is no fundamental "buying power" to support a rally in these sectors yet. Weak monthly job reports and slowing wage growth data contradict the narrative of a robust economic rotation. If economic data suddenly improves or inflation drops faster than expected, allowing real wage growth to recover. |
CNBC
Bitcoin is not digital gold and behaves like ...
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