Bloomberg Surveillance 2/12/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 12, 2026 at 16:02 UTC  |  2:24:16  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Julian Emanuel — Evercore ISI
Sharon Bell — Goldman Sachs
French Hill — Republican Congressman
Kristin Bitterly — Citi Wealth
Monica Guerra — Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
David Tinsley — Bank of America Institute
Steve Ricchiuto — Mizuho Securities
Joseph Amato — Neuberger Berman
Devin Ryan — Citizens JMP
Matthew Luzzetti — Deutsche Bank
George Bory — Allspring Global Investments

Summary

  • The "AI Disruption" Trade is Widening: The market is moving beyond just buying AI hardware (Nvidia) to aggressively selling sectors perceived as vulnerable to AI displacement (Software, Legal, Wealth Management, Real Estate Services).
  • Defensive Rotation: Investors are hiding in "Physical" assets (Staples, Metals, Mining) that AI cannot digitize, driving Staples to double-digit year-to-date gains despite a bull market.
  • K-Shaped Consumer Bifurcation: High-income spending remains robust, but middle-income consumers are degrading toward lower-income behaviors (trading down to grocery/staples). Tax refunds are expected to service debt and staples, not discretionary travel.
  • Fed Policy Divergence: While the consensus expects cuts, Mizuho argues the economy is accelerating and inflation is stuck, predicting zero rate cuts for the next 12 months.
  • International Diversification: Strong calls for Japan (inflationary shift + governance) and Europe (valuation discount + commodity exposure) as hedges against US tech concentration and dollar weakness.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
AVOID Julian Emanuel
Evercore ISI
Emanuel notes that Software, Legal, and Financial professions are viewed as "most likely to be disrupted." Financials are underperforming despite the bull market. The market is pricing in existential risk for business models based on billable hours or code generation. Until these companies prove they can monetize AI rather than be replaced by it, multiples will compress. AVOID sectors in the crosshairs of the "AI Heat Seeking Missile." Oversold conditions could lead to a sharp relief rally if earnings prove resilient. 6:52
LONG Sharon Bell
Goldman Sachs
Bell notes US markets are expensive and concentrated. Europe offers exposure to "Old Economy" sectors (Industrials, Materials) and trades at lower valuations (UK at 13.5x PE). As investors seek diversification away from the US Dollar and US Tech concentration, flows will move to cheaper, cyclical markets like Europe and the UK. LONG Europe/UK as a valuation and currency diversification play. European economic growth remains stagnant compared to the US. 99:24
SHORT Steve Ricchiuto
Mizuho Securities
Ricchiuto argues the economy is accelerating, inflation is "stuck," and the Fed will not cut rates for 12 months. The market is pricing in cuts that won't happen. As data confirms sticky inflation and strong growth, yields must rise (prices fall) to reflect a "higher for longer" reality. SHORT Treasuries (expecting higher yields). A sudden economic crack or banking crisis forces the Fed to cut.
LONG Joseph Amato
Neuberger Berman
Japan has shifted from a deflationary to an inflationary regime, combined with a push for better shareholder returns (ROEs). This structural shift makes Japan a distinct growth story separate from US Tech. It offers diversification with improving corporate fundamentals. LONG Japan for structural reflation and governance reform. JPY currency volatility impacting unhedged returns.
MU /WDC /EQIX
LONG News Cisco warned that rising memory chip prices will eat into profits. Equinix reported record sales due to AI build-out. Cisco's pain (higher costs) is the memory sector's gain (pricing power). Data centers (Equinix) are the physical infrastructure required for the AI boom. LONG the "Pick and Shovel" hardware and infrastructure providers. Overbuilding of capacity leading to a future glut. 75:16
LONG Devin Ryan
Citizens JMP
Ryan argues the selloff in Wealth Managers (Schwab, Morgan Stanley) due to AI fears is wrong. AI is a productivity tool, not a replacement for relationship-based advice. The market has incorrectly priced these firms as "disrupted" when they will actually become more efficient. LONG Financials/Wealth Managers as a contrarian value play against the "AI Death" narrative. AI agents actually do begin to erode fee structures faster than anticipated. 110:28
AVOID News Cisco shares down ~7% after warning that rising component costs (memory) will hurt margins. Hardware integrators are getting squeezed between rising input costs (from memory suppliers) and aggressive competition. AVOID due to margin compression. Supply chain stabilizes faster than expected. 24:13
LONG Julian Emanuel
Evercore ISI
Emanuel states that sectors "least likely to be disrupted" by AI are outperforming, specifically naming Metals/Mining, Agriculture, and Consumer Staples. Investors are suffering from "AI Anxiety" regarding white-collar industries (Software, Financials). They are rotating capital into physical industries that AI cannot automate away. This is a "hide from disruption" trade. LONG physical/defensive sectors as a hedge against AI displacement fears. If the "soft landing" narrative strengthens without AI fear, defensive sectors may underperform high-beta growth. 7:54
MCD
LONG News McDonald's US sales growth hit a two-year high due to value meals boosting traffic. In a K-shaped economy where consumers are trading down, McDonald's "value" proposition is winning market share from more expensive dining options. LONG on the "Trade Down" consumer thesis. Margin compression if food costs rise while menu prices are capped. 4:13
CVX
WATCH Annmarie Hordern
Bloomberg Reporter
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is in Venezuela to help raise oil output; Chevron is explicitly mentioned as a company on the ground. Improved diplomatic relations and licenses for US companies to operate in Venezuela directly benefit incumbent operators like Chevron. WATCH Chevron for positive headlines regarding Venezuelan production quotas. Geopolitical volatility or a reversal in US administration policy. 29:39
LONG Monica Guerra
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Tax refunds are expected to be 40% higher than last year. Unlike previous stimulus, consumers are using this cash to pay down debt and stock up on essentials (Staples), not for discretionary splurges. LONG Staples as the beneficiary of the tax refund cycle. Consumers feel wealthier than expected and pivot back to discretionary spending. 7:57
SHORT Monica Guerra
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Guerra identifies Discretionary as the "Loser" of the current spending cycle. The "K-Shaped" economy means the middle/lower class is squeezed. Any incoming cash (refunds) fills holes in balance sheets rather than funding travel or luxury goods. SHORT Discretionary retail exposed to middle/low-income consumers. High-income spending remains strong enough to buoy the sector averages. 11:14