| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Katie Greifeld
Anchor, Bloomberg |
Treasury yields dropped significantly after the CPI print (10-year down ~15bps this week). The Russell 2000 (Small Caps) outperformed (+1.2%), and sectors like Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials led the market. Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the attractiveness of dividend-yielding sectors. Small caps (IWM) are disproportionately sensitive to rates due to floating-rate debt; as yields fall, their balance sheet pressure eases, prompting capital rotation out of expensive tech and into these value/cyclical pockets. LONG exposure to rate-sensitive sectors and small caps as the "yield relief" trade gains traction. Re-acceleration of inflation causing yields to spike back up. | 2:27 | |
| LONG |
Carol Massar
Anchor, Bloomberg |
Applied Materials stock rose ~8% to a record high after delivering an upbeat sales forecast and settling a Commerce Department investigation. The company explicitly signaled that demand for AI and memory semiconductors is fueling equipment purchases. The settlement removes a significant legal overhang, allowing the market to focus purely on the AI infrastructure tailwinds. LONG as a pick-and-shovel play on the continued build-out of AI and memory chip capacity. Cyclical downturn in the broader semiconductor equipment market. | — | |
| LONG |
Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios |
Coinbase rallied 16% (best day since May) despite reporting a revenue decline and a net loss. Bitcoin also rallied 4.5%. The stock's massive rally on bad earnings news suggests that the negative data was already "priced in." Investors are ignoring backward-looking financials and treating COIN purely as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin price action, which is breaking out. LONG on momentum; when a stock rallies on bad news, it indicates seller exhaustion and strong underlying demand. Regulatory crackdowns or a reversal in Bitcoin spot prices. | 1:23 | |
| LONG |
Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios |
Rivian shares jumped ~27% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and achieving its first-ever annual gross profit. Achieving gross profit is a critical inflection point for EV startups, signaling a move away from "cash incinerator" status toward sustainability. The upcoming R2 launch provides a product roadmap catalyst. LONG as a turnaround play, validating that operational efficiency is improving. Production delays on the R2 or waning overall EV demand. | — | |
| LONG |
Bailey Lipschultz
Reporter, Bloomberg |
Goldman Sachs launched an "AI Proof" basket. These names are on the LONG side. Goldman's logic is that these companies possess "physical execution," "regulatory entrenchment," or "human accountability" moats that AI cannot easily disrupt or replicate. They are viewed as defensive winners in an AI-dominated future. LONG based on the thematic rotation into high-quality software with defensible moats. High valuations in software stocks generally. | 3:56 | |
| SHORT |
Bailey Lipschultz
Reporter, Bloomberg |
These names are on the SHORT side of Goldman Sachs' "AI Proof" basket. The inference is that these business models (generic SaaS, CRM, language learning) are vulnerable to displacement by AI agents or automated coding/language models. They lack the "physical" or "regulatory" moats of the long basket. SHORT as a hedge against AI disruption eroding seat-based pricing power. AI integration actually boosts their margins rather than replacing them. | 7:51 | |
| SHORT |
Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios |
Pinterest shares fell ~17% after missing sales estimates. The company warned that tariffs on home furnishings are causing advertisers in that category to pull back spending. This is a macro-driven revenue hit. If tariffs increase costs for home goods companies (a core Pinterest demographic), marketing budgets are the first to be cut. This headwind is external and likely persistent under current trade policy expectations. SHORT/AVOID until the impact of trade policies on ad spend stabilizes. Unexpected recovery in ad spend or a buyout rumor. | — | |
| WATCH |
Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios |
Nvidia fell 2.2% and has been stagnant for months despite rising Big Tech capex. There is growing investor anxiety that revenue growth will slow and fail to keep pace with the massive CapEx announcements. The market is compressing the valuation ahead of earnings, fearing a "pause" in spending. WATCH. The stock is in a consolidation phase with negative sentiment building; requires a strong earnings beat to break the stagnation. A massive earnings beat reignites the rally immediately. | 5:03 | |
| SHORT |
Tim Stenovec
Editor-at-Large, Axios |
DraftKings fell 13.5% after missing sales and profit forecasts. While the company cites "prediction markets" as an opportunity, the analyst notes this actually increases competition from platforms like Robinhood. Regulatory overhangs specific to sports betting apps remain a burden that new entrants might avoid. SHORT due to missed execution and intensifying competitive landscape. Successful expansion into new betting verticals. | 5:45 |