Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 18, 2026 at 16:21 UTC  |  2:24:20  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Keith Lerner — Co-Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services
Mandeep Singh — Senior Technology Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
Daniel Newman — CEO of The Futurum Group
Elyas Galou — Investment Strategist at Bank of America
Jim Zelter — Co-President of Apollo Global Management
Jill Ford — Head of Equity Capital Markets at Wells Fargo
Mitchell Green — Founder of Lead Edge Capital
Oliver Chen — Retail Analyst at Cowen
Alicia Levine — Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon
Gil Luria — Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson
Nancy Lazar — Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler
Nouriel Roubini — CEO of Roubini Macro Associates

Summary

  • Market Regime Change: The consensus is shifting from blind AI euphoria to a "show me the receipts" phase. While the S&P 500 remains resilient (up 0.4%), there is a violent rotation under the surface out of high-multiple software and into "real world" assets and profitable tech incumbents.
  • The Software Debate: A fierce divide exists regarding Enterprise Software. Skeptics (Zelter, Singh) see obsolescence risk and margin compression from AI agents. Bulls (Luria, Newman, Lerner) argue the sector is deeply oversold (worst relative performance since 2000) and that AI enhances rather than replaces these platforms.
  • CapEx Bubble Warning: Mitchell Green explicitly calls a "Giant AI CapEx Bubble," predicting a bad ending for infrastructure overbuilders, while simultaneously being bullish on software utility and Chinese tech.
  • Macro Optimism: Economists (Lazar, Roubini) are surprisingly bullish on US GDP (forecasting 3-4%), driven by a productivity boom and a manufacturing renaissance, suggesting the Fed may not need to cut rates significantly.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Gil Luria
Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson
Software stocks have underperformed the broader market by the widest margin since 2000. Luria notes MSFT, NOW, SNOW, and DDOG are trading at attractive valuations relative to growth. Newman highlights CRM and NOW are proving AI is an accelerator, not a displacer. The market is pricing in "obsolescence risk" (AI replacing software), but the counter-narrative is that AI is a "labor enhancer." These companies provide the essential infrastructure for AI (MSFT/SNOW) or the "rules and rails" of business (CRM/NOW) that cannot be easily replaced by LLMs. LONG. The sell-off is a tactical opportunity to buy high-quality compounders at depressed multiples. If "Agentic AI" actually begins replacing seat-based SaaS licenses faster than anticipated. 23:06
LONG Oliver Chen
Retail Analyst at Cowen
Walmart is gaining market share across all income cohorts, including high-income earners. Green compares the current AI cycle to the 2000 internet boom, noting that incumbents who adapted (Walmart/Target) won, while those who didn't (Sears) died. In a bifurcated retail environment, scale and data are the new moats. WMT is successfully blending physical retail with digital advertising and AI-driven supply chain efficiency. It is a "Phygital" winner. LONG. WMT and COST are defensive growth plays that benefit from trade-down behavior and technological adaptation. Valuation is high (WMT at 50x mentioned), leaving little room for earnings disappointment. 7:26
LONG Alicia Levine
Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon
Lazar forecasts a 12% jump in CapEx for 2026, driven by a "manufacturing renaissance" and heavy truck orders. Levine notes a rotation into "dirty businesses" (making things) as capital flows to the physical world. The AI trade is broadening from digital to physical. You cannot build data centers, factories, or energy infrastructure without materials and industrial machinery. This sector benefits from the "goods producing" jobs multiplier. LONG. Cyclicals are the beneficiaries of the "No Landing" / 4% GDP growth scenario. If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to strong growth, financing costs for heavy industry could bite. 8:46
AVOID Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
Green explicitly states we are in a "Giant AI CapEx Bubble" and that the amount of money being spent on infrastructure is "mind-boggling" relative to current revenue. Overbuilding is rampant. Similar to the telecom fiber bubble, capacity is being built that may not be utilized immediately, leading to massive depreciation cycles that will hurt the owners of this hardware/infrastructure. AVOID. The risk/reward for pure-play infrastructure build-out is skewed to the downside if utilization lags. If AI adoption accelerates exponentially (AGI), the demand for compute could outstrip even this massive build-out. 84:48
LONG Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
Green calls Palantir an "amazing company" and owns the stock. Newman notes they are a driver in the enterprise space. Despite high valuations, PLTR is in a "category of one" for delivering actual revenue/margin expansion from AI (the "receipts"). They are successfully bridging the gap between AI hype and operational utility. LONG. A winner in the "application layer" of AI. Extremely high valuation multiples make it vulnerable to any growth deceleration. 16:21
LONG Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
Green points out that Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent have doubled off their lows but remain cheap, generating billions in profit. The geopolitical discount is too steep. The US and China will likely find a way to coexist ("One plus one equals four"), and these companies are dominant monopolies trading at value multiples. LONG. A contrarian value play against the expensive US tech sector. Geopolitical tensions escalating or further regulatory crackdowns from Beijing. 86:37
APO
LONG Jim Zelter
Co-President of Apollo Global Management
Apollo's stock was hit by fears that private credit portfolios are exposed to "obsolete" software companies. Zelter clarifies their exposure to non-IG software debt is minimal. The market mispriced the risk. Apollo is pivoting to "boulders" (massive retirement service markets in Japan/Australia) and Investment Grade credit, which are less disruptable by AI than small-cap SaaS. LONG. The sell-off was based on a misunderstanding of their loan book composition. A broader credit cycle or recession would hurt their private credit book regardless of sector.
LONG Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
Japan is investing $36 Billion in US energy projects, including a natural gas plant in Ohio and oil export facilities in the Gulf. This is a direct injection of capital into US energy infrastructure. It validates the "Energy Security" theme and guarantees demand for US LNG and fossil fuels. LONG. US Energy infrastructure is a beneficiary of geopolitical alignment with Japan. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approvals. 6:26