|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
|
Japan is investing $36 Billion in US energy projects, including a natural gas plant in Ohio and oil export facilities in the Gulf. This is a direct injection of capital into US energy infrastructure. It validates the "Energy Security" theme and guarantees demand for US LNG and fossil fuels. LONG. US Energy infrastructure is a beneficiary of geopolitical alignment with Japan. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approvals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Jim Messina
Democratic Strategist / Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Obama
|
Messina states that "Donald Trump's numbers are really bad in Texas" and that if the GOP primary produces a weak candidate (Paxton), the state is "in play" for Democrats. Texas is the heart of the US energy industry. While a Democratic flip is historically unlikely (as Messina admits), the mere narrative of Texas becoming a swing state introduces "Tail Risk" regarding state-level regulation and taxation on Oil & Gas producers, who traditionally rely on a stable GOP regulatory environment in the state. Monitor Texas polling data. A competitive race introduces volatility to Texas-heavy energy names. Democrats have not won Texas since 1994; this may be purely aspirational political rhetoric with no real threat to the status quo. |
Bloomberg Markets
Could Texas Be In Play For Democrats During t...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
|
While general CPI is trending down (<1% per Trueflation), specific categories like "rare earths, energy, battery materials, gold, and silver" are moving upwards drastically. The AI and tech build-out requires massive physical resources (energy for compute, metals for hardware). Even in a deflationary consumer environment, the industrial input costs for the next tech cycle are rising. LONG. Hard assets hedge against both monetary debasement and the specific supply chain demands of the AI boom. A global recession suppresses industrial demand. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Laura Davison
Washington Bureau Chief
|
Japan is investing $36 billion into US projects immediately, specifically a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico. This is part of a larger $550B trade deal to avoid tariffs. This is state-directed capital injection into specific US infrastructure assets. The "synthetic diamonds" investment specifically links energy to the semiconductor supply chain. Direct bullish catalyst for US energy infrastructure and critical mineral processors receiving this FDI. Execution delays; the deal requires money to flow within 45 days, which is aggressive. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Josh Brown
CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
|
"Energy is the best performing sector on the year so far... no fundamental benefit whatsoever. That's pure multiple... The market's looking forward toward either higher oil prices or increased demand for electricity." Energy stocks are rallying on sentiment (AI power demand) rather than current earnings (which are flat). While the momentum is strong, the lack of fundamental earnings growth makes this a momentum trade rather than a value trade currently. WATCH Energy for confirmation of earnings growth to justify the multiple expansion. Oil prices falling or the "AI power demand" narrative fading. |
The Compound News
“Unrealized” Capital Gains Tax is Economic Su...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Anything energy compute bottleneck I think goes up only forever." The US government's commitment to winning the AI race requires massive physical infrastructure build-outs. The bottleneck is no longer code, but the electricity and processing power required to run the models. Long the infrastructure layer supporting AI. Regulatory hurdles for new energy projects or hardware supply chain disruptions. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Rob Thummel
Senior Fund Manager at Tortoise Capital
|
The speaker states, "You're seeing a rotation out of the Megacap Techs and into what really matters... Hard assets." He notes the sector is up 19% in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500. The macro environment has shifted to a "new era" where secure energy is the primary driver of the economy, fueled by AI demand. As capital rotates from tech to real assets, the entire energy complex benefits from this re-rating. LONG the sector to capture the momentum of the rotation and the structural demand for electricity. Reversal of the rotation trade; falling oil prices (though the speaker notes performance holds even with oil at $64). |
CNBC
We're in a new era of energy, electricity is ...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Brian Levitt
Global Market Strategist, Invesco
|
Levitt notes a rotation from "virtual themes" (AI concentration) to the "physical world." The S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) is near all-time highs, while tech has seen 3 weeks of losses. The market is broadening out. As investors take profits in Mag-7/AI, capital flows into undervalued cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials, Energy) and mid-caps that benefit from economic resilience and re-industrialization. Long RSP and Cyclical Sectors. A recession would hit cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies. |
Bloomberg Markets
Open Interest 2/17/2026
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Russ Koesterich
Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
|
Koesterich notes BlackRock is "trimming tech exposure and adding to cyclicals like industrials." Yardeni observes investors moving from "virtual themes to physical themes." The market is experiencing "AI fatigue." Investors are seeking safety and value in the "analog world" (physical economy) which has been neglected during the tech boom. This rotation is not recessionary but a rebalancing of valuations. LONG physical economy sectors. A sharp economic downturn would hurt cyclicals (Industrials/Energy) regardless of the rotation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/17/2026
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
|
Rubio highlights a "suspension of the imposition of sanctions and allowed to move forward on energy" resulting from the November meeting. Regulatory and sanctions overhangs have historically stifled energy infrastructure development in Central Europe. The removal of these barriers allows for immediate capital deployment and revenue realization for energy projects (pipelines, nuclear, transit) in the region. LONG Energy infrastructure and utility plays with Central European exposure. Re-imposition of sanctions if geopolitical winds shift; volatility in underlying commodity prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Says US, Hungary Are Entering 'Golden E...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
AVOID
|
Heidi
Guest / Analyst
|
The speaker notes that while the Trump administration claims US oil companies will invest and profit in Venezuela, "I'm not sure we heard that type of enthusiasm from the energy CEOs because they've had some bad history." She cites a lack of stable rules and security. The market may try to price in a "Venezuela Reopening" windfall for US Majors (like Exxon or Chevron). However, the reality is that these companies are risk-averse and view the region as unsafe. The "Trump Trade" of Venezuelan revenue is likely a mirage for the majors in the medium term. Do not buy US Majors based solely on the Venezuela expansion narrative; the risk/reward is not attractive to them yet. "Wildcatters" (smaller, speculative firms) might enter the market successfully, or the administration could force incentives that de-risk the entry for majors. |
Bloomberg Markets
Oil Companies in ‘Active’ Talks Over Recoupin...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Peter Tchir
Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities
|
Tchir states, "I still love Uranium... I don't see a world that doesn't realize they need nuclear anymore." He emphasizes companies producing "real tangible things, pulling things out of the ground." As AI data centers demand massive electricity, nuclear/uranium becomes a critical bottleneck. Additionally, in a geopolitical fragmentation scenario ("Greenland," "China"), domestic resource production becomes a premium asset. LONG Uranium and physical commodities. Regulatory hurdles or a sudden drop in energy prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera
CEO of MCC Global Enterprises
|
"Iran felt a lot more stable... in 2025... Right now, in early 2026, I think that they're feeling a lot more vulnerable... Oil prices did sustainably rise this time." In 2025, geopolitical noise didn't stick to oil prices. Now, domestic instability in Iran combined with aggressive US military signaling (aircraft carriers) creates a genuine risk to supply. A "backed into a corner" Iran is more likely to disrupt energy flows, supporting higher crude prices. LONG. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to the energy market. A quick diplomatic resolution or demand destruction from a global economic slowdown. |
CNBC
Markets weigh geopolitics, tariffs and tech p...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Veronica Willis
Global Investment Strategist, Wells Fargo Investment Institute
|
Wells Fargo advocates using volatility to buy into sectors outside of big tech, specifically naming Industrials, Utilities, and Precious Metals (Gold/Silver). The tech trade is "stretched." Diversification into real assets (metals) and defensive/cyclical equity sectors offers protection against volatility and inflation stickiness. LONG Defensives and Real Assets. Tech rally resumes, leaving diversified portfolios underperforming. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Lower as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Richard Saperstein
Founding Principal and CIO of Hightower Treasury Partners
|
Saperstein admits, "If we really want performance now and we own Oil, Pharma, Bank, we want to diversify Consumer into those sectors for more near-term performance." There is a "passing of the torch" rotation occurring. Capital is moving from Growth to Value/Cyclical. To capture *immediate* alpha while tech consolidates, one must own the sectors benefiting from this rotation. LONG (Tactical). Use these sectors for short-term hedging against tech volatility. The rotation reverses quickly if tech earnings surprise to the upside; economic slowdown hurting cyclicals. |
CNBC
Stock pullback presents opportunities for cli...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Ashu Khullar
CEO, Citi India (Implied based on context of Citi India leadership and "Paul" as interviewer)
|
The US-India trade agreement includes an intention for India to buy $500 billion worth of US goods. The speaker explicitly names "Defense" (rockets/new tech), "Civil Nuclear" (opening up), and "Energy" as key areas where India lacks domestic technology and must import. India's geopolitical pivot away from Russian arms and energy dependence necessitates massive procurement from Western allies. This creates a structural, multi-year order book for US Defense primes, Nuclear technology providers, and Energy exporters. Long US exporters in these specific sectors (Defense, Nuclear, Energy) as direct beneficiaries of the $500bn trade target. Bureaucratic delays in finalizing trade deal details; political shifts in the US or India. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Expects India Investment Boost From Trad...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Amrita Sen
Founder/Director of Research, Energy Aspects (Implied based on context/voice match for "Guest" discussing oil)
|
"The market has been much too bearish... runs in January were up two million barrels a day... inventories are still low." The consensus view (IEA) predicts a surplus, but physical market data (refining runs) shows tightness. Furthermore, China is stockpiling commodities not for consumption, but for strategic reserves (Taiwan preparation), creating a price floor and demand shock the market hasn't priced. Long Oil and Refiners as the "glut" narrative fails to materialize. Global recession crushing organic demand; rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in £10B Deal | The Pu...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
K. Balasubramanian
Managing Director
|
The new US-India trade deal involves a commitment/intent for India to purchase $500B worth of US goods, specifically mentioning energy and agriculture. This is a direct government-mandated demand shock for US exporters in these sectors. LONG. The deal is "intent" based and lacks binding enforcement; Indian farmers protesting could dilute the agricultural concessions. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Eyes Big India Plans as US Banks Rush to...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland
|
Jonah argues against buying raw commodities (like Nat Gas) due to supply gluts, stating one should focus on the "manufactured commodity" or the "machine." Data centers don't need raw gas; they need *electricity* (the manufactured commodity) and physical structures. The alpha is not in the fuel (which is abundant), but in the conversion (Utilities) and the build-out (Construction/Industrials) of the data centers themselves. Long the "Pick and Shovel" plays of the AI build-out (Utilities, Grid, Construction). High interest rates slowing down physical construction projects. |
1000x Podcast
What Does AI Mean For Your Future?
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Dan Ives
Star Analyst at Wedbush
|
"And those derivatives, you could argue you're gonna go into energy, financials, health care as it plays out in terms of broadening market." Second-order thinking suggests that the AI trade isn't just about chips and software. The massive power requirements (Energy) and economic efficiency gains (Financials/Healthcare) will cause the "yellow brick road" of capital to flow into these sectors as the market broadens. LONG as a rotation/derivative play on the AI theme. Macroeconomic slowdowns affecting cyclical sectors like energy and financials regardless of AI adoption. |
Bloomberg Markets
Ives Still Sees Big Winners Despite Software ...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Annmarie Hordern
Bloomberg Surveillance Co-host
|
"Wildcatters are those individuals that are a little bit more nimble and small. They're the ones that right now have a tremendous amount of interest in Venezuela." The US government is explicitly pushing "commerce" over "boots on the ground." With OFAC lifting licenses, smaller, higher-risk US energy independent producers (Wildcatters) will likely secure aggressive lease terms before the major global conglomerates feel safe enough to enter. Long the speculative end of the US Energy sector (Small/Mid-cap E&Ps) looking for high-beta exposure to new reserves. Expropriation risk remains high in transitional governments; physical security of assets. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Energy Secretary Makes Historic Visit to V...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Tim Seymour
Seymour Asset Management, Fast Money Trader
|
Seymour identifies a "barbell approach" to the current market, highlighting that Semiconductors (specifically NVIDIA) continue to outperform, while Health Care and Energy are also working. This strategy balances aggressive growth (Semis) with value/cyclicals (Energy/Health Care). Seymour argues the economy is in better shape than perceived; specifically, the Energy sector performs well as long as the labor market remains stable and people have jobs. Semis are "outperforming once again," and Energy/Health Care are showing strength alongside them. A significant deterioration in the labor market (Payrolls) could undermine the thesis for the cyclical side of the trade. |
CNBC
Expectation of Fed rate cut in June will supp...
|