Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nuclear Talks | Horizons Middle East & Africa 2/18/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 18, 2026 at 07:36 UTC  |  45:15  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg TV
Laura Davison — Deputy Bureau Chief, Bloomberg Washington
George Cheveley — Portfolio Manager, Ninety One
Bank of America Analyst — Head of Asia-Pacific Equity Derivatives Research
Jennifer Zabasajja — Chief Africa Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

  • Geopolitical De-escalation? US and Iran have reached a "general agreement" on nuclear talks, with a proposal due in two weeks. This coincides with a potential "window" for deals before a US military armada arrives in the region in March.
  • Japan's $36B Energy Bet: Japan is deploying the first tranche of a $550B trade commitment to the US, specifically targeting natural gas in Ohio, crude exports in the Gulf, and synthetic diamonds for semiconductors.
  • Tech "Bubble" Diagnosis: Bank of America argues we are in "1997, not 1999." While asset prices are high, productivity and profitability (unlike the dot-com era) support the valuation. They recommend call spreads over delta-one exposure.
  • Metals Inventory Glut: A counter-intuitive dynamic in Copper: US inventories are spiking not because of weak demand, but because importers rushed supply into the country to beat potential Trump tariffs.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Laura Davison
Washington Bureau Chief
Japan is investing $36 billion into US projects immediately, specifically a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico. This is part of a larger $550B trade deal to avoid tariffs. This is state-directed capital injection into specific US infrastructure assets. The "synthetic diamonds" investment specifically links energy to the semiconductor supply chain. Direct bullish catalyst for US energy infrastructure and critical mineral processors receiving this FDI. Execution delays; the deal requires money to flow within 45 days, which is aggressive. 3:02
LONG Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
Meta has agreed to buy "millions" of Nvidia processors (Blackwell generation) over the next few years. Despite market fears of an "AI Bubble," the largest hyperscalers (Meta) are accelerating, not decelerating, their capex spend on compute. This validates the hardware revenue floor for Nvidia. Long the "pick and shovel" (NVDA) and the adopter with the deepest pockets (META). Regulatory scrutiny on AI dominance; potential over-ordering leading to future inventory corrections. 20:42
NEUTRAL George Cheveley
Portfolio Manager, Ninety One
Metals have sold off recently (Silver -12%, Copper -4%). US Copper inventories are at highs. The inventory spike is artificial—it is a result of importers front-running potential tariffs, not a collapse in demand. However, this "inventory overhang" creates a short-term price ceiling until the stockpile is digested. The long-term rotation into "real assets" is valid, but the short-term setup is messy due to the tariff-induced inventory glut. Wait for the overhang to clear. If US manufacturing data weakens, the inventory pile becomes a structural problem rather than a temporary logistics quirk. 24:50
LONG Bank of America Analyst
Head of Asia-Pacific Equity Derivatives Research
Beijing is allowing the Renminbi to strengthen. A significant portion of Hong Kong earnings are derived in Renminbi. A stronger currency mathematically inflates the earnings of these companies when reported, acting as a passive tailwind for valuations. Bullish on Hong Kong/China equities as a currency play and a diversification hedge against US tech concentration. US-China trade war escalation could override currency benefits. 11:01
WATCH Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has agreed to reopen buyout negotiations with Paramount (PARA) after Paramount raised its bid. The consolidation of legacy media is accelerating to compete with streaming giants. A bidding war or finalized deal provides immediate arbitrage opportunities. Watch for deal terms; this is a classic M&A arbitrage setup. Regulatory antitrust blocking; deal financing falling through. 21:32
BHP
LONG George Cheveley
Portfolio Manager, Ninety One
BHP reported strong results driven by copper and precious metals byproducts. They sold a silver stream on a Peruvian mine for $4.3B upfront. Miners are monetizing non-core assets (silver streams) to build cash piles. BHP's net debt is well below target, positioning them for acquisitions or massive shareholder returns. High-quality balance sheet play in the materials sector. Global recession dampening commodity demand. 30:06