|
Feb 18
|
|
$78.06
$78.06
-0.0%
|
AVOID
|
Michael Batnick
Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management
|
Silver is down significantly (crashing) while other assets move. Michael admits to losing money on this trade ("Software and Silver" are his current pain points). He characterizes the price action as "strange." The trade is not working; implied sentiment is frustration/avoidance until momentum changes. A sudden reversal in commodities could leave sellers behind. |
The Compound News
Is AI a Mistake? | Animal Spirits 452
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
$78.06
$78.06
-0.0%
|
LONG
|
Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
|
While general CPI is trending down (<1% per Trueflation), specific categories like "rare earths, energy, battery materials, gold, and silver" are moving upwards drastically. The AI and tech build-out requires massive physical resources (energy for compute, metals for hardware). Even in a deflationary consumer environment, the industrial input costs for the next tech cycle are rising. LONG. Hard assets hedge against both monetary debasement and the specific supply chain demands of the AI boom. A global recession suppresses industrial demand. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
$78.06
$78.06
-0.0%
|
NEUTRAL
|
George Cheveley
Portfolio Manager, Ninety One
|
Metals have sold off recently (Silver -12%, Copper -4%). US Copper inventories are at highs. The inventory spike is artificial—it is a result of importers front-running potential tariffs, not a collapse in demand. However, this "inventory overhang" creates a short-term price ceiling until the stockpile is digested. The long-term rotation into "real assets" is valid, but the short-term setup is messy due to the tariff-induced inventory glut. Wait for the overhang to clear. If US manufacturing data weakens, the inventory pile becomes a structural problem rather than a temporary logistics quirk. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$77.85
$78.06
+0.3%
|
LONG
|
Guy Wolf
Global Head of Market Analytics
|
"Copper and Silver have been the focal point... material trapped in the US because of fierce tariffs... causes shortages elsewhere." Tariffs act as a barrier, creating artificial scarcity in global markets (ex-US). These metals are critical for the energy transition and electronics, meaning demand is inelastic while supply is constrained by trade policy. LONG. Global industrial slowdown reducing demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$77.85
$78.06
+0.3%
|
SHORT
|
Mike McGlone
Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)
|
"The lessons in aluminum are you never want to buy it above 3000... almost always it goes back down to 2000." regarding Silver: "Silver is an industrial metal... I view silver as the devil's metal is going to cause most pain ahead lower... prudent short." The speaker identifies severe deflation in China (1.8% 10-year yield) as a demand killer. Furthermore, he notes that industrial metals are trading in lockstep with the S&P 500. If the equity market corrects (which he expects due to historically low volatility), these metals will lose their primary support vector. He explicitly reclassifies Silver as an industrial metal in this environment, subjecting it to the same downside risks as Copper and Aluminum. Short industrial metals as they are historically overextended and facing a deflationary demand shock from China. A sudden resurgence in Chinese industrial demand or the S&P 500 continuing to rally above 7000 without volatility normalization. |
Bloomberg Markets
Aluminum Drops as Trump Moves to Narrow Levie...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$77.85
$78.06
+0.3%
|
LONG
|
Veronica Willis
Global Investment Strategist, Wells Fargo Investment Institute
|
Wells Fargo advocates using volatility to buy into sectors outside of big tech, specifically naming Industrials, Utilities, and Precious Metals (Gold/Silver). The tech trade is "stretched." Diversification into real assets (metals) and defensive/cyclical equity sectors offers protection against volatility and inflation stickiness. LONG Defensives and Real Assets. Tech rally resumes, leaving diversified portfolios underperforming. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Lower as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$75.55
$78.06
+3.3%
|
LONG
|
Richard Teng
Co-CEO, Binance
|
"We started offering precious metals perpetual contracts... in a short span of one month the volume just skyrocketed... because for precious metals the information come in at night during the weekend and you need to be able to hedge." Traditional commodity markets (COMEX/LBMA) are archaic because they close. In a volatile geopolitical environment, risk happens 24/7. There is massive pent-up demand for tokenized or crypto-derivative exposure to hard assets that can be traded instantly when news breaks on a Sunday. This drives volume to crypto-native commodity derivatives. LONG. Decoupling of "paper gold" (derivatives) prices from physical spot prices during extreme volatility. |
CoinDesk
The $300M Move: Richard Teng on Tokenizing Wa...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$75.55
$78.06
+3.3%
|
LONG
|
Julian Emanuel
Evercore ISI
|
"The FOMO over the last two months has been anywhere but stocks. It's been in gold and silver." Market participants are chasing momentum in precious metals as a hedge or alternative to equities. The speaker identifies this as the primary locus of current market exuberance. LONG. Follow the identified momentum/FOMO flow. If the "FOMO" breaks or yields spike unexpectedly, these crowded trades could unwind. |
Bloomberg Markets
Julian Emanuel Sees FOMO Driving Market Stapl...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
$83.75
$78.06
-6.8%
|
AVOID
|
Lisa Shalett
Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
|
Silver and Bitcoin are trading purely on speculative liquidity, not fundamentals. Bitcoin is in a "Crypto Winter" bear market phase based on seasonal patterns. Silver is excessive relative to Gold. AVOID / SHORT Silver and Bitcoin. A sudden liquidity injection by the Fed could spike speculative assets. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
$80.22
$78.06
-2.7%
|
WATCH
|
Geo Chen
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
|
Gold and silver are in a correction phase after a parabolic rise, with the author expecting a period of sideways, choppy price action for "a few months to a year." However, the underlying monetary and geopolitical drivers (dollar bear market, de-dollarization, rising gold share of reserves) remain strongly supportive for a long-term bull market continuation. The current correction offers an opportunity to monitor for signs of equilibrium and accumulation before the next leg up in the secular bull market, similar to the 2006 analog. Monitor gold and silver for signs of bottoming and consolidation within the next 3-12 months, with a view to establishing long positions for a multi-year uptrend. The correction could be deeper or more prolonged than anticipated; Warsh's Fed policy could be less dovish on rates or more hawkish on QT than expected; a significant global economic downturn could temporarily dampen speculative demand for precious metals. |
Fidenza Macro
The end of the bull market or just a pause fo...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
$82.07
$78.06
-4.9%
|
AVOID
|
Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
|
El-Erian observes a "shakeout" in speculative assets like Bitcoin and Silver, noting he is not a big investor in Bitcoin because he sees it as purely technical and highly volatile. He uses the analogy of "tourist investors" (speculators) vs. "resident investors" (long-term holders). Currently, there are too many tourists and not enough residents to absorb selling pressure. Until the institutional base matures to resemble the Gold market, volatility will remain extreme. Bitcoin dropping under 70,000 and the recent "de-leveraging" in speculative markets. Unexpectedly rapid institutional adoption could stabilize the price sooner than expected. |
CNBC
Volatility, dispersion and fragmentation are ...
|
|
Feb 06
|
|
$76.74
$78.06
+1.7%
|
LONG
|
Joshua Lim
Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
|
Gold and Silver are seeing "GameStop-style" retail price action (30%+ moves) and massive Central Bank accumulation (China adding thousands of kilograms). Capital is rotating *out* of digital stores of value (Bitcoin) and *into* analog stores of value (Metals). The retail speculative fervor usually reserved for Altcoins has migrated to Silver. Momentum trade driven by both sovereign floors and retail speculation. Overbought conditions (blow-off top signals mentioned). |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
'No More Dry Powder to Come Into Tokens': Why...
|
|
Feb 03
|
|
$83.04
$78.06
-6.0%
|
LONG
|
Thiccy
Quant Trader / Crypto Analyst
|
"The marginal bidder, the marginal demand is not flowing into Bitcoin, it's flowing into gold right now instead... The Chinese have realized... they need to escape their currency... shoving it into gold and silver." Western investors are tapped out (already allocated to equities). The massive liquidity injection is coming from the East (China). Because Chinese investors cannot access US equities and their domestic market is suppressed, precious metals are the *only* viable escape valve for Yuan capital flight. Long Precious Metals as the primary beneficiary of Chinese capital flight, displacing Bitcoin's former role. A sudden stabilization of the Chinese equity market or strict capital controls preventing metal purchases. |
Thread Guy
The New Age of Crypto ft. Thiccy
|
|
Feb 03
|
|
$83.04
$78.06
-6.0%
|
LONG
|
Tim Copeland
Co-host, Head of Growth at The Block
|
Crypto realized volatility is dead. Retail traders are "touristing" into physical metals because that is where the standard deviation moves are happening. Capital in this cycle is mercenary and chases volatility, not ideology. If Crypto remains flat/boring, liquidity will continue to drain from Crypto into Commodities (Metals) to chase the momentum there. LONG Metals (as a volatility play). The "generational rally" in metals may have already peaked (crowded trade). |
The Block
Prediction markets and permissionless perps o...
|
|
Feb 03
|
|
$83.04
$78.06
-6.0%
|
AVOID
|
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
|
Gold fell ~22% in weeks; Silver crashed harder. Volatility has exploded. Second-Order Thinking regarding CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors). CTAs target specific volatility levels. When Gold was slow/steady, they sized up massively. Now that volatility has spiked, their risk models force them to sell to reduce variance. Jonah estimates they are only "25% of the way" through their forced selling. Do not catch the falling knife. The "unwind" will take weeks as quants systematically reduce exposure. Central banks could step in aggressively to buy the dip earlier than expected. |
1000x Podcast
Is BTC A Buy, Metals Crash, Hyperliquid RWAs,...
|
|
Feb 02
|
|
$76.78
$78.06
+1.7%
|
LONG
|
Thiccy
Quant Trader / Crypto Analyst
|
Thiccy notes that "Chinese grandmas" and central banks are aggressively buying metals, while Bitcoin is stagnant. Eastern capital is seeking to escape local currency debasement but views Bitcoin as a "US/Trump proxy" due to ETFs and political embrace. Therefore, the true "anti-fiat" flows are reverting to traditional metals, which have deep liquidity and high volatility. LONG. Metals are currently capturing the liquidity that crypto natives expected to flow into BTC. A sudden reversal in the US Dollar strength or a geopolitical shift that makes BTC neutral again. |
Thread Guy
Crypto is in TROUBLE.. and only ONE THING can...
|
|
Feb 02
|
|
$76.78
$78.06
+1.7%
|
LONG
|
@lukegromen
|
The speaker suggests that Trump's policies involve buying silver and other commodities with printed dollars, implying inflationary pressures that would benefit precious metals. |
@lukegromen
Translation: Trump’s buying silver, etc. from...
|
|
Feb 02
|
|
$76.78
$78.06
+1.7%
|
AVOID
|
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
|
Gold fell 22% rapidly; Silver "nuked." Prices have crossed below the 50-day and likely 100-day moving averages. Volatility has spiked to historic highs. CTAs (systematic funds) manage risk via volatility targeting. When volatility spikes, they *must* reduce position size to keep variance constant. Additionally, crossing moving averages triggers sell signals. Jonah estimates CTAs are only 25% through their required selling. Do not catch the falling knife. The systematic unwind will take weeks/months, not days. Central banks (sovereign buyers) could step in earlier than expected to arrest the price drop. |
1000x Podcast
Metals Crash & Bitcoin Breaks $80k
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
$78.29
$78.06
-0.3%
|
AVOID
|
Thread Guy
Crypto Commentator / Streamer
|
"Silver just had its worst dump ever since the big bang... You don't really get a blow off the top without the snapback." The parabolic move in metals has broken. While Central Banks (sovereign money) are buying, the "long tail" of retail speculators has been liquidated. The momentum trade is dead, and the asset class is likely entering a consolidation or correction phase. AVOID. The volatility is too high and the trend is broken. Geopolitical escalation could reignite the flight to safety immediately. |
Thread Guy
Crypto Trading is BACK! + Gold & Silver CRASH...
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
$78.29
$78.06
-0.3%
|
LONG
|
@abcampbell
|
Increasing long exposure to silver (or $SLV) after a significant 33% price drop, suggesting it is oversold and due for a rebound. |
@abcampbell
short gamma
wait for it to break this... htt...
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
$78.29
$78.06
-0.3%
|
LONG
|
@krugermacro
|
Initiating a long position in silver, expecting a 10% bounce after a sharp decline, possibly exacerbated by speculative trading. |
@abcampbell
guess it's no surprise the bears attack on op...
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
$78.29
$78.06
-0.3%
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"It’s been a wild ride in gold over the last 24 hours as well, with gold selling off sharply in sympathy to the US equity open sale. Such tight cross-asset correlations affirm broad financial speculation as the big driver here. Silver looks the same only with 2-3x beta." Gold and silver are currently acting as speculative assets, highly correlated with equities, rather than traditional safe havens or inflation hedges. If the speculative mania unwinds, they are likely to fall with other risky assets. Short Gold and Silver, or avoid long positions, as their recent movements are tied to speculative risk-on sentiment rather than fundamental drivers, making them vulnerable to a market correction. A return to "debasement" concerns, geopolitical shocks, or a shift back to traditional safe-haven buying could support prices. |
Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps
|
|
Jan 29
|
|
$114.04
$78.06
-31.6%
|
LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto Commentator / Streamer
|
ThreadGuy notes metals are "trading like meme coins" with massive volatility to the upside (Copper +11% in hours). Peter Schiff explains that central banks are aggressively dumping USD reserves for physical gold to escape US sanctions risk. This is not a standard inflation hedge; it is a geopolitical exit from the US Dollar system. Because the Trump administration has explicitly claimed Bitcoin as a "US Asset," foreign capital flight is funneling exclusively into physical commodities ("Atoms") rather than digital stores of value ("Bits"). LONG physical commodities and miners. This is the only asset class catching the "flight from safety" bid. A de-escalation of geopolitical tension or a sudden strengthening of the USD could cause a violent unwind of these "parabolic" moves. |
Thread Guy
The KreekCraft Interview - Exposing Roblox's ...
|
|
Jan 29
|
|
$114.04
$78.06
-31.6%
|
LONG
|
Haseeb Qureshi
Managing Partner at Dragonfly
|
"Crypto is boring... everyone's levering silver now." Gold is at $5,100. Speculators are explicitly saying, "I'm not trading crypto right now, I'm trading silver." Crypto traders are "volatility junkies." When crypto volatility dies (the current "doldrums"), this capital doesn't sit in cash; it seeks the next most volatile asset. Currently, that is Precious Metals (PMs). This introduces a new, aggressive class of buyer to the commodities market, driving parabolic moves. LONG. Follow the flow of speculative liquidity. Regulatory crackdown on RWA (Real World Asset) perps or a sudden return of volatility to BTC, which would suck liquidity back out of metals. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Is Boring… So Everyone’s Levering Silv...
|
|
Jan 27
|
|
$105.52
$78.06
-26.0%
|
LONG
|
Rob Hadock
General Partner at Dragonfly Capital
|
Metals are hitting all-time highs. This is not just a monetary premium trade. There is a technological demand shock incoming. AI data centers and power generation require massive amounts of copper and rare earth metals. The supply does not exist to meet this "AI Infrastructure" demand. LONG. This is a structural, fundamental repricing of physical commodities. Global recession reducing industrial demand; AI capex slowing down. |
Thread Guy
Bitcoin is about to PUMP...? Crypto Onchain i...
|
|
Jan 27
|
|
$105.52
$78.06
-26.0%
|
AVOID
|
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
|
Avi notes Silver is up nearly 300% and trading like a crypto memecoin, driven by retail panic rather than central bank buying (unlike Gold). Jonah notes that CTAs are "max long" and will dump aggressively once the trend breaks. When an asset moves vertically due to retail FOMO and algorithmic trend-following, it creates a "blow-off top." Once the price dips below key moving averages (50-day/100-day), CTAs will flip from long to short, causing a catastrophic cascade. AVOID buying here. Look to SHORT only after momentum breaks and price crosses below the 50-day moving average. "Irrational exuberance" can last longer than solvency; shorting a parabolic move before the confirmed breakdown is dangerous. |
1000x Podcast
When Will Metals Top?
|
|
Jan 26
|
|
$115.08
$78.06
-32.2%
|
AVOID
|
@fcfinvest
|
Recent sharp moves in silver are attributed to speculative retail chasing, similar to Shiba Inu, and lack fundamental basis, suggesting caution or avoidance. |
@krugermacro
Give the Optimus a flamethrower. No more snow...
|