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Feb 03, 2026
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LONG
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"People want to gamble... It's impressive how much speculative capital still exists to bid garbage AI runner right now on Solana... hyper J curve... three days later it's yours I never probably never gonna hear about it again." The "Casino" demand is inelastic—people will always gamble. However, the *venue* changes rapidly (from Pump.fun to the next mechanic). The trade is not to hold these assets, but to identify the *newest* gambling mechanism (the "New Game") immediately, ride the 3-day J-curve, and exit before the inevitable death. Long volatility on the *newest* on-chain gambling meta (currently AI agents/social apps), but with extremely short holding periods. Being the "bag holder" after the 72-hour hype cycle expires. |
Thread Guy
The New Age of Crypto ft. Thiccy...
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Feb 03, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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"Pump at like a billion and a half is like very fair valuation... The game is like gone too solved... extraction is too efficient." While the platform prints cash, the "edge" for retail traders has evaporated because bots/insiders extract value too efficiently. When the players (retail) lose consistently, they leave the casino. Therefore, the platform's growth has a ceiling unless it invents a new, less "solved" game. Fairly valued, but lacks the explosive upside of a new, inefficient market. A competitor launches a "fairer" launchpad that drains liquidity instantly. |
Thread Guy
The New Age of Crypto ft. Thiccy...
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Feb 03, 2026
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LONG
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"The marginal bidder, the marginal demand is not flowing into Bitcoin, it's flowing into gold right now instead... The Chinese have realized... they need to escape their currency... shoving it into gold and silver." Western investors are tapped out (already allocated to equities). The massive liquidity injection is coming from the East (China). Because Chinese investors cannot access US equities and their domestic market is suppressed, precious metals are the *only* viable escape valve for Yuan capital flight. Long Precious Metals as the primary beneficiary of Chinese capital flight, displacing Bitcoin's former role. A sudden stabilization of the Chinese equity market or strict capital controls preventing metal purchases. |
Thread Guy
The New Age of Crypto ft. Thiccy...
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Feb 03, 2026
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AVOID
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"It's heavily integrated itself with the US... it sold its soul... it's viewed as like America Trump coin now." Bitcoin was originally a hedge against the system. However, via ETFs and political embrace, it has become a beta play on the US Dollar/Trump administration. If the global macro trade is "De-dollarization" or "Anti-US Hegemony," Bitcoin is now on the *wrong* side of that trade (the US side), while Gold is on the correct side. Avoid Bitcoin as a "safe haven" against US instability; it is now a proxy for US success. US Dollar strengthens significantly, dragging BTC up with it, or Trump explicitly creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (mentioned as a failed promise so far). |
Thread Guy
The New Age of Crypto ft. Thiccy...
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Feb 02, 2026
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LONG
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Thiccy notes that "Chinese grandmas" and central banks are aggressively buying metals, while Bitcoin is stagnant. Eastern capital is seeking to escape local currency debasement but views Bitcoin as a "US/Trump proxy" due to ETFs and political embrace. Therefore, the true "anti-fiat" flows are reverting to traditional metals, which have deep liquidity and high volatility. LONG. Metals are currently capturing the liquidity that crypto natives expected to flow into BTC. A sudden reversal in the US Dollar strength or a geopolitical shift that makes BTC neutral again. |
Thread Guy
Crypto is in TROUBLE.. and only ONE THING can...
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Feb 02, 2026
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AVOID
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Thiccy states the onchain game is "solved" and "too efficient" at extracting value from retail. In 2021, the game was new. Now, sophisticated actors use bots and tools to extract value instantly. Without a fresh influx of retail "fish," the ecosystem is purely PvP (Player vs Player) with diminishing returns. AVOID. The risk/reward is poor compared to 2021; the "easy money" phase is over. A sudden new mechanism (like a new DeFi summer) reinvents the game and attracts fresh retail liquidity. |
Thread Guy
Crypto is in TROUBLE.. and only ONE THING can...
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Feb 02, 2026
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LONG
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Thiccy argues that a bull market requires a "new cohort of unsophisticated masses with capital." Currently, that capital is in Web2 AI (VCs and startups with inflated valuations). Crypto 2021 was fueled by stimulus checks; the current mania is fueled by AI speculation. The "dumb money" is chasing AI startups and infrastructure, making it the current venue for bubble-like returns. LONG. Follow the flow of unsophisticated capital. The AI bubble bursts or fails to deliver revenue commensurate with valuations. |
Thread Guy
Crypto is in TROUBLE.. and only ONE THING can...
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Feb 02, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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Bitcoin has underperformed despite global instability and debasement fears. Thiccy suggests BTC might have been merely an "alarm bell" for fiat issues that has now served its purpose. If BTC is viewed as an asset of the "American Elite" or the Trump administration, it loses its value proposition as a neutral, censorship-resistant bearer asset for the rest of the world. NEUTRAL. It is struggling to find a narrative identity between "Digital Gold" and "Tech Stock Beta." Sovereign adoption (Strategic Reserve) or a massive shift in Western institutional allocation could reignite the bull case. |
Thread Guy
Crypto is in TROUBLE.. and only ONE THING can...
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