Metals Crash & Bitcoin Breaks $80k
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 02, 2026 at 19:21 UTC  |  53:13  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg — Host / Trader
Avi Felman — Host / Trader

Summary

  • Bitcoin has experienced a violent 40% correction from its October 2025 highs, dropping from peaks to the $74k-$78k range, breaking the "four-year cycle" model.
  • Gold and Silver have crashed (Gold -22% in days to ~$4,400), driven not by fundamentals but by systematic CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) liquidation due to volatility targeting.
  • A specific opportunity exists in "unfairly punished" sectors like Uranium and Rare Earths, which sold off in sympathy with precious metals despite strong structural tailwinds.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) is identified as the cycle's breakout exchange asset, with the hosts suggesting it may outperform Bitcoin in the recovery phase.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Jonah Van Bourg
Head of Trading, Cumberland
Uranium (URA ETF at $53) and Rare Earths (REMX at $85) have sold off aggressively alongside Gold and Silver. This is a correlation dislocation. Retail and algos sold "all metals" blindly. However, Uranium and Rare Earths are driven by a "mega trend" (nuclear energy ramp-up) and are not monetary assets like Gold. The sell-off is a liquidity event, not a fundamental one. Buy the dip. These assets were "unfairly dragged around" and offer a better entry than the crowded precious metals trade. Continued broad market risk-off sentiment could suppress all commodities regardless of fundamentals. 19:46
BTC
LONG Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Bitcoin dropped 40% from highs, piercing the $74k level before bouncing to $78k. Volume on the selling drives is decreasing, signaling seller exhaustion. The 40% drawdown flushes out "tourist" leverage. The $74k-$77k zone represents a high-time-frame support level where risk/reward flips heavily in favor of long-term allocators. The "disgusting" chart scares retail, which is usually a buy signal. Accumulate in the $74k-$77k zone. A sustained break below $74k invalidates the range support; further macro "indigestion" from tariffs. 1:08
AVOID Jonah Van Bourg
Head of Trading, Cumberland
Gold fell 22% rapidly; Silver "nuked." Prices have crossed below the 50-day and likely 100-day moving averages. Volatility has spiked to historic highs. CTAs (systematic funds) manage risk via volatility targeting. When volatility spikes, they *must* reduce position size to keep variance constant. Additionally, crossing moving averages triggers sell signals. Jonah estimates CTAs are only 25% through their required selling. Do not catch the falling knife. The systematic unwind will take weeks/months, not days. Central banks (sovereign buyers) could step in earlier than expected to arrest the price drop. 10:17
ETH
AVOID Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Ethereum "got absolutely nuked on high volume" and broke key levels. Unlike Solana (defending $100) or Bitcoin (at long-term support), ETH shows no relative strength or clean support structure. The high-volume sell-off indicates institutional exit or capitulation without a clear floor. Focus capital on BTC or SOL instead. An unexpected rotation back into ETH if the "value" proposition resurfaces. 3:02
LONG Jonah Van Bourg
Head of Trading, Cumberland
Hyperliquid volumes are trending up significantly, trading billions in real-world assets (Silver/Gold) and crypto. The token is up 50% recently despite the market crash. In crypto, "usage is king." Hyperliquid is capturing market share from traditional exchanges (like Nasdaq) and crypto competitors because it is a superior product with no supply overhang. It is transitioning from a "crypto play" to a revenue-generating financial infrastructure play. High conviction Long. Jonah suggests selling underwater Bitcoin positions to harvest tax losses and rotating that capital into HYPE. Regulatory intervention (though Trump administration perceived as favorable); competition from other decentralized exchanges. 42:30