When Will Metals Top?
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 27, 2026 at 08:24 UTC  |  53:59  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi — Host, 1000x Podcast
Jonah — Host, 1000x Podcast

Summary

  • The "Retail God Candle" in Metals: The hosts argue that the current rally in Gold and Silver is driven by late-stage retail FOMO, sovereign manipulation, and CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) trend-following, rather than fundamental value. They compare the current Silver price action to a crypto "altcoin season" blow-off top.
  • Geopolitical Fracture Thesis: While bearish on metals short-term due to overextension, the long-term thesis (10-15 years) remains robust for assets critical to national security (Uranium, Rare Earths, Copper) as the world moves from a unipolar (US-led) to a multipolar order.
  • Crypto bifurcation: The "Crypto" industry is effectively dead; it is merging into Fintech. The only investable assets remaining are those with genuine revenue (Hyperliquid) or specific utility (Privacy coins), while Bitcoin languishes in "no man's land" with a broken chart.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Avi states that unlike Silver, assets like Rare Earths (REMX), Copper, and Uranium have genuine industrial and national security demand. He explicitly mentions the US will likely increase investment in domestic mining in the next 6-12 months. In a "fractured, multipolar world," nations must secure their own supply chains for energy and defense. This creates a structural supply deficit for these specific commodities that does not exist for speculative metals like Silver. LONG. These are "buy the dip" assets because they are supported by a multi-decade secular trend of deglobalization. A global recession could dampen industrial demand for Copper specifically. 19:46
LONG Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Avi argues "Crypto is dead" as a sector, but specific fintech-adjacent protocols like Hyperliquid are generating massive revenue and have worked through supply overhangs. As the market matures, speculative "governance tokens" will die, and value will accrue solely to protocols that function like equities (generating cash flow/revenue). LONG. Focus on revenue-generating infrastructure rather than narrative plays. Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi protocols that act like unregistered securities.
ZEC /XMR
LONG Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Avi notes that "humans will always commit crime" and need a place to store/move illicit value, explicitly naming Monero (XMR) and ZCash (ZEC). As geopolitical instability rises and governments weaponize the banking system (seizing assets), the utility value of privacy coins—which act as digital bearer assets outside the surveillance state—increases fundamentally. LONG. A hedge against total surveillance and banking censorship. Delistings from major centralized exchanges (Binance/Coinbase) due to regulatory pressure. 48:20
BTC
WATCH Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Avi describes the Bitcoin chart as "the ugliest chart I've ever seen," noting it is languishing below 90k and failing to break out despite the Gold rally. Gold profits are *not* rotating into Bitcoin because the buyer bases are different (Central Banks/Boomers vs. Speculators). Without a narrative catalyst or a flush to reset leverage (potentially below 80k), capital is flowing elsewhere. WATCH. Wait for a flush or a reclaim of momentum. Currently in "no man's land." If Bitcoin is viewed purely as a risk-on asset, a stock market correction could drag it down further. 1:33
AVOID Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Avi notes Silver is up nearly 300% and trading like a crypto memecoin, driven by retail panic rather than central bank buying (unlike Gold). Jonah notes that CTAs are "max long" and will dump aggressively once the trend breaks. When an asset moves vertically due to retail FOMO and algorithmic trend-following, it creates a "blow-off top." Once the price dips below key moving averages (50-day/100-day), CTAs will flip from long to short, causing a catastrophic cascade. AVOID buying here. Look to SHORT only after momentum breaks and price crosses below the 50-day moving average. "Irrational exuberance" can last longer than solvency; shorting a parabolic move before the confirmed breakdown is dangerous. 1:11