| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
The US is establishing a "Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve" (private sector funded, $10B loan/$2B equity) and creating a "club of nations" with price floors to stop Chinese dumping. The administration is explicitly backing domestic mining ("Mine, Baby, Mine") and protecting price stability for miners against China's dominance. This creates a government-backed floor for the sector. LONG US Mining / Critical Minerals. China retaliating with export bans or aggressive undercutting before price floors take effect. | 113:41 | |
| LONG |
Stuart Kaiser
Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi |
Investors have been selling Large-Cap Growth and rotating into Value/Cyclicals since November. The economy remains solid (GDP tracking well), and positioning in Large-Cap Tech is still massive (2-5 year build-up). The rotation has space to go as investors seek exposure to the physical economy and stimulus. LONG Cyclicals as the rotation continues. A sharp deterioration in labor market data (though the 130k print mitigates this). | 4:40 | |
| LONG |
Stuart Kaiser
Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi |
The market is punishing "Spenders" (Hyperscalers spending billions) and rewarding "Enablers." Investors want exposure to the companies selling the picks and shovels (Memory, Power Gen) rather than the companies burning cash on CapEx with uncertain ROI. LONG AI Infrastructure/Memory; AVOID Hyperscalers (Spenders). If AI power usage/chip demand undershoots, the trade collapses. | — | |
| LONG |
Lisa Shalett
Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management |
Financials sold off sharply (e.g., SCHW down 7%) on fears of AI disruption from new fintech tools. The selloff is "silly." AI tools (like tax planning) rely on data that incumbents (banks/wealth managers) own and control. The disruption threat is overstated, creating a value entry point in high-quality financials. LONG Financials (Morgan Stanley's #1 high conviction sector). Rapid adoption of AI agents actually displacing human advisors faster than expected. | 53:43 | |
| LONG |
Binky Chadha
Chief Global Strategist, Deutsche Bank |
Software stocks sold off on AI fears, but fundamentals (earnings) remain strong. The AI disruption threat takes years to play out. The tactical selloff is "way overdone." Shopify (SHOP) mentioned as bouncing back on strong earnings. LONG Software (Tactical bounce). Continued narrative damage regarding AI replacing SaaS seats. | 84:03 | |
| SHORT |
Jim Bianco
President, Bianco Research |
Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts. | — | |
| AVOID |
Yahaira Jacquez
Reuters Video Journalist |
Mattel shares plunging 30% pre-market after significant miss and weak guidance. Consumers hunting for deals and retailers managing inventory tightly led to a failure of the expected holiday sales surge. AVOID Mattel. Oversold bounce potential. | 27:03 | |
| AVOID |
Lisa Shalett
Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management |
Silver and Bitcoin are trading purely on speculative liquidity, not fundamentals. Bitcoin is in a "Crypto Winter" bear market phase based on seasonal patterns. Silver is excessive relative to Gold. AVOID / SHORT Silver and Bitcoin. A sudden liquidity injection by the Fed could spike speculative assets. | 26:33 | |
| SHORT |
Lisa Shalett
Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management |
43% of the Russell 2000 is unprofitable. Small caps are "really, really low quality." They cannot make money even with nominal GDP over 5%. If the economy slows, these companies are structurally broken. The "Small Cap" trade is a trap; quality is elsewhere. SHORT Small Caps. A massive drop in interest rates could temporarily float zombie companies. | 51:53 | |
| AVOID |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
The administration views offshore wind as intermittent, expensive, and a national security risk (radar/sonar interference). They intend to remove subsidies and stop permitting. Without tax subsidies, the sector is "not viable." AVOID / SHORT Offshore Wind developers. Courts ruling against the administration's stop-work orders. | 121:42 | |
| LONG |
Lisa Shalett
Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management |
Central banks are diversifying reserves, and non-dollar stablecoin issuers are buying gold to collateralize tokens. Gold is effectively diversifying portfolios against stocks (unlike Treasuries recently). The structural bid from de-dollarization and crypto-collateralization provides a floor. LONG Gold. High real rates usually pressure gold, though that correlation has broken recently. | 56:07 | |
| LONG |
Rick Wurster
President & CEO, Charles Schwab |
Stock fell ~7% on fears a startup (Altruist) launched an AI tax tool. Schwab has 46 million clients and massive data scale. They are already implementing AI (e.g., Wealth.com partnership). AI will make their advisors more efficient, not obsolete. The selloff is an overreaction. LONG SCHW (CEO explicitly bullish and owns stock). Fee compression if AI tools democratize complex tax strategies. | 2:57 | |
| LONG |
Sucharita Kodali
Retail Analyst, Forrester |
High-end consumers are "trading down" to mass merchants. While the low-end consumer is struggling, the volume from wealthier shoppers moving down the value chain benefits the large discount retailers. LONG Walmart / Costco. If the high-end consumer stops spending entirely rather than just trading down. | 31:06 | |
| LONG |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
The administration is reversing the EPA "endangerment finding" on CO2 emissions. This regulatory rollback allows coal plants to remain open to provide baseload power for the AI arms race. "Energy Addition, not Subtraction." LONG Coal / Utilities with coal assets. Legal challenges from environmental groups delaying the regulatory rollback. | 118:30 |