Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Next Debt Bubble: Bits + Bips
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 18, 2026 at 10:23 UTC  |  1:06:16  |  Unchained (Chopping Block)
Speakers
Austin Campbell — Host, Managing Partner at Zero Knowledge Consulting
Ram Ahluwalia — Co-host, CEO of Lumida Wealth
Chris Perkins — Co-host, President at CoinFund
Stefan Rust — Guest, CEO of Trueflation

Summary

  • Trueflation data indicates real-time US inflation is currently below 1% (0.68% to 0.9%), significantly lower than the BLS reported 2.4%, suggesting the Fed may be overly restrictive.
  • A massive "AI CapEx Bubble" is forming, with Mag 7 companies committing ~$700B to infrastructure despite AI revenue projections (e.g., Anthropic's $1T forecast) appearing unrealistic and disconnected from current unit economics.
  • The "AI Agent" economy is rapidly emerging, with a consensus forming around US Dollar stablecoins on high-throughput blockchains (Solana, Base) as the primary medium of exchange, rather than Bitcoin.
  • Institutional adoption is decoupling from token price action; while prices lag, major players like BlackRock and Apollo are actively integrating with DeFi protocols (Uniswap, Morpho).
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
SHORT Ram Ahluwalia
Founder, Lumida Wealth
Hyperscalers have committed to trillion-dollar spending obligations (debt) while current revenues are a fraction of that (e.g., OpenAI/Anthropic revenue vs. valuation). Ram notes, "They're echoes of 2008 when you had debt that wasn't worth par... I don't think it's great for Mag 7." These companies are releveraging their balance sheets (issuing debt/equity) to fund CapEx that has uncertain ROI. This capital destruction reduces their ability to fund share buybacks, which was the primary driver of their stock performance. SHORT/AVOID. The risk/reward for the heavy spenders is skewed to the downside as they incinerate cash. AI monetization accelerates faster than expected, validating the spend. 33:56
LONG Ram Ahluwalia
Founder, Lumida Wealth
Nvidia and Apple are the only two major tech stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages. Nvidia has immense pricing power ("Mag 7 has no choice"), and Apple largely sat out the massive CapEx splurge. In a "picks and shovels" gold rush, the value accrues to the hardware provider (NVDA) regardless of whether the customers (MSFT/META) make a profit. Apple remains a defensive play with a cleaner balance sheet by avoiding the "incinerator." LONG. Divergence within Big Tech favors the sellers of infrastructure (NVDA) and the disciplined allocators (AAPL). A sudden halt in AI CapEx spending would crush Nvidia's order book. 33:54
LONG Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
While general CPI is trending down (<1% per Trueflation), specific categories like "rare earths, energy, battery materials, gold, and silver" are moving upwards drastically. The AI and tech build-out requires massive physical resources (energy for compute, metals for hardware). Even in a deflationary consumer environment, the industrial input costs for the next tech cycle are rising. LONG. Hard assets hedge against both monetary debasement and the specific supply chain demands of the AI boom. A global recession suppresses industrial demand. 12:18
LONG Austin Campbell
Founder, Zero Knowledge Group; Co-host Bits+Bips (Unchained); Adj. Prof. NYU Stern
AI agents perform vast numbers of micro-transactions. The market is coalescing around "US dollar stablecoins" as the currency and high-throughput chains for settlement. Bitcoin is explicitly deemed "not well-designed" for this use case. As AI agents begin transacting autonomously, transaction volume will explode. This volume flows to the issuers of the currency (Coinbase/Circle) and the most efficient networks (Solana). LONG. Bet on the infrastructure that facilitates the "Agentic Economy." Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins or a shift to CBDCs. 44:02
LONG Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
Institutions are moving on-chain despite low token prices. BlackRock is using Uniswap X; Apollo is acquiring Morpho tokens. Smart money is buying the "rails" and protocols during the bear market. The utility of swapping tokenized assets (e.g., JPM Coin for Mercado Libre Coin) will occur on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap. LONG. Institutional validation provides a floor, and future tokenized asset volume will drive protocol revenue. Continued regulatory hostility towards DeFi interfaces. 59:36