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Feb 18
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LONG
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Stefan Rust
Guest, CEO of Trueflation
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While general CPI is trending down (<1% per Trueflation), specific categories like "rare earths, energy, battery materials, gold, and silver" are moving upwards drastically. The AI and tech build-out requires massive physical resources (energy for compute, metals for hardware). Even in a deflationary consumer environment, the industrial input costs for the next tech cycle are rising. LONG. Hard assets hedge against both monetary debasement and the specific supply chain demands of the AI boom. A global recession suppresses industrial demand. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Austan Goolsbee
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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"Goods prices, which had been [low] inflation... jumped up... If you take out commodities by the percent tariff content... you see a pretty clear relationship... those goods where there were more tariffs have tended to have higher inflation." Goolsbee explicitly links recent price jumps to tariffs. If tariffs persist or expand (a known macro theme), the cost of goods and raw materials will rise. Commodities act as a hedge against this specific type of "cost-push" inflation. LONG. A hedge against the "warning signs" Goolsbee sees in goods inflation. The tariff impact proves to be a "one-time thing" as Goolsbee hopes, and deflationary pressures return. |
CNBC
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Several more ...
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Kyle Grieve
Host, The Investor's Podcast / Millennial Investing
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"You need to keep your savings in appreciating assets... stocks... bonds, real estate, commodities, private businesses, cryptocurrencies." To combat the "silent tax" of inflation, investors must own assets that are "tied to real economic activity" or possess scarcity. Diversify into hard and productive assets to maintain and grow purchasing power. Asset bubbles, high interest rates depressing asset prices, or specific sector risks. |
We Study Billionaires
Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor w/ Kyl...
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Feb 13
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WATCH
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
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The goods sector did not show the "pass along" of price increases that were expected from tariffs. If tariff-related inflation is not materializing ("maybe we've been there, done that"), it removes a key inflationary tail risk for the economy. WATCH the goods/commodities complex; continued softness here is bullish for the broader disinflation narrative. Supply chain shocks or delayed tariff impacts. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Amrita Sen
Founder/Director of Research, Energy Aspects (Implied based on context/voice match for "Guest" discussing oil)
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"The market has been much too bearish... runs in January were up two million barrels a day... inventories are still low." The consensus view (IEA) predicts a surplus, but physical market data (refining runs) shows tightness. Furthermore, China is stockpiling commodities not for consumption, but for strategic reserves (Taiwan preparation), creating a price floor and demand shock the market hasn't priced. Long Oil and Refiners as the "glut" narrative fails to materialize. Global recession crushing organic demand; rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in £10B Deal | The Pu...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Dina Esfandiary
Middle East Geoeconomics Lead, Bloomberg News
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Oil is currently trading just below $65/barrel. The analyst outlines two scenarios: a "likely" managed escalation causing a "brief spike," or an "extreme" scenario where Iran strikes energy infrastructure and closes the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to "skyrocket." With WTI Crude at $65, the market is pricing in a high probability of peace or oversupply. Both scenarios presented by the analyst involve price appreciation—either a tactical spike (base case) or a massive repricing event (bull case). There is little downside priced in for a geopolitical risk premium at these levels. LONG Energy as an asymmetric hedge. If the "managed escalation" occurs, you catch the spike; if the "extreme" case hits, it protects the portfolio against a global economic crash. A rapid, surprise diplomatic breakthrough where Trump lifts sanctions without escalation, leading to a flood of Iranian supply. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Still Hopes to Have ...
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Feb 06
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LONG
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Richard Bernstein
CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors
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Bernstein suggests commodities are a viable way to play a potential weakening of the US Dollar. If the Fed cuts rates while the economy remains hot (high nominal GDP), the dollar is likely to depreciate. Commodities are "hard assets" that historically appreciate when the currency they are priced in (the dollar) loses value. Historical correlation between falling dollar and rising hard asset prices. If the Fed becomes more hawkish (e.g., under a nominee like Warsh), the dollar could strengthen, hurting commodity prices. |
CNBC
Market broadening is very healthy, says Richa...
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