Summary

• The Trump administration is attempting to negotiate a new deal with Iran, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is insisting on strict red lines, specifically rolling back Iran's missile program.
• Iran views its missile program as its "first line of defense" and existential to its survival, making this a major sticking point in negotiations compared to the nuclear program, which they are more willing to discuss.
• The US is deploying a second aircraft carrier to the region to establish "credible military threats" to support negotiations.
• Oil Scenario Analysis: The analyst outlines two paths. The "Extreme Case" involves Iran striking regional energy infrastructure and closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil to skyrocket ($108+). The "Likely Case" is a managed escalation resulting in a short, temporary spike from current levels (~$65).