Aluminum Drops as Trump Moves to Narrow Levies on Metal Products

Speakers

Mike McGlone — Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)

Scarlet Fu — Anchor

John Tucker — Anchor

Summary

Commodity Reversion: The strategist argues that commodities, specifically Aluminum and Gold, have reached statistical extremes ("up too much") and are due for mean reversion.
The China Factor: A key bearish driver is severe deflation in China, evidenced by their 10-year yield at 1.8%, which signals weak demand for industrial materials despite high electricity input costs.
The S&P 500 Correlation: Industrial metals are currently trading "tick for tick" with the S&P 500. The thesis rests heavily on the S&P 500 rolling over from record low volatility, which would drag metals and crypto down with it.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
ALUMINUM /COPPER /SILVER	SHORT	Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)	"The lessons in aluminum are you never want to buy it above 3000... almost always it goes back down to 2000." regarding Silver: "Silver is an industrial metal... I view silver as the devil's metal is going to cause most pain ahead lower... prudent short." The speaker identifies severe deflation in China (1.8% 10-year yield) as a demand killer. Furthermore, he notes that industrial metals are trading in lockstep with the S&P 500. If the equity market corrects (which he expects due to historically low volatility), these metals will lose their primary support vector. He explicitly reclassifies Silver as an industrial metal in this environment, subjecting it to the same downside risks as Copper and Aluminum. Short industrial metals as they are historically overextended and facing a deflationary demand shock from China. A sudden resurgence in Chinese industrial demand or the S&P 500 continuing to rally above 7000 without volatility normalization.	0:09
GOLD	SHORT	Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)	"It runs into that number one risk in all commodities up too much... Stock market volatile is going to go up and that might be another one pressure factor on gold as we have potentially hit margin call." While Gold is often a safe haven, the speaker argues it is currently driven by speculation ("China and speculation"). The specific risk mechanism identified is a "margin call" event: if the stock market volatility spikes (normalizes from 8-year lows), investors will be forced to sell liquid winners (Gold) to cover losses elsewhere. Short or Sell Gold as it is technically overextended and vulnerable to a liquidity crunch/volatility spike. Geopolitical escalation driving safe-haven flows regardless of equity market volatility.	2:10
S&P 500	SHORT	Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)	"We're seeing now with 180 day volatility the S&P 500 running near an eight year low risk... So we get a little bit normalization, stock market volatility as we run into the year." The speaker uses volatility as a contrarian indicator. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency. A return to "normalization" implies a drop in prices and a spike in the VIX. Since he views industrial metals and Bitcoin as dependent on the S&P 500 ("Baidu" likely a transcription error for "Beta" or the broader market context), the root trade is a correction in US Equities. Short the S&P 500 as volatility mean-reverts higher. Continued "melt-up" scenario where volatility remains suppressed despite macro headwinds.	—