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Feb 18
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$5.79
$5.78
-0.2%
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NEUTRAL
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George Cheveley
Portfolio Manager, Ninety One
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Metals have sold off recently (Silver -12%, Copper -4%). US Copper inventories are at highs. The inventory spike is artificial—it is a result of importers front-running potential tariffs, not a collapse in demand. However, this "inventory overhang" creates a short-term price ceiling until the stockpile is digested. The long-term rotation into "real assets" is valid, but the short-term setup is messy due to the tariff-induced inventory glut. Wait for the overhang to clear. If US manufacturing data weakens, the inventory pile becomes a structural problem rather than a temporary logistics quirk. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
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Feb 17
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$5.63
$5.78
+2.6%
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LONG
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Vandita Pant
CFO, BHP
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BHP earnings beat expectations. Crucially, for the first time ever, Copper accounted for >50% of group profits, overtaking Iron Ore. This signals the structural rotation from "Old Economy" (China construction/Iron Ore) to "New Economy" (Data Centers/Electrification/Copper). BHP is effectively repricing as a copper play, which commands a higher multiple than an iron ore play. LONG BHP as a proxy for global copper demand. A global recession dampens industrial metal demand; China stimulus fails completely. |
Bloomberg Markets
Anthropic’s Pentagon Talks Snag, Pound Falls ...
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Feb 17
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$5.63
$5.78
+2.6%
|
LONG
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Vandita Pant
CFO, BHP
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BHP reported earnings where Copper accounted for ~50% of profits for the first time. They are raising production guidance at Escondida and seeing strong contributions from byproducts (Gold, Silver, Uranium). This signals a successful structural re-rating from a "dirty" Iron Ore/Coal miner to a "future-facing" electrification metals play. The market typically assigns a higher multiple to copper exposure than iron ore. The failed bid for Anglo American suggests organic growth (like Escondida) is now the primary value driver. LONG BHP as a proxy for the copper super-cycle without the M&A execution risk. A sudden reversal in the "historic metals rally" or operational failures at Escondida. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
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Feb 16
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$5.79
$5.78
-0.2%
|
LONG
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Guy Wolf
Global Head of Market Analytics
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"Copper and Silver have been the focal point... material trapped in the US because of fierce tariffs... causes shortages elsewhere." Tariffs act as a barrier, creating artificial scarcity in global markets (ex-US). These metals are critical for the energy transition and electronics, meaning demand is inelastic while supply is constrained by trade policy. LONG. Global industrial slowdown reducing demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
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Feb 13
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$5.79
$5.78
-0.2%
|
SHORT
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Mike McGlone
Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)
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"The lessons in aluminum are you never want to buy it above 3000... almost always it goes back down to 2000." regarding Silver: "Silver is an industrial metal... I view silver as the devil's metal is going to cause most pain ahead lower... prudent short." The speaker identifies severe deflation in China (1.8% 10-year yield) as a demand killer. Furthermore, he notes that industrial metals are trading in lockstep with the S&P 500. If the equity market corrects (which he expects due to historically low volatility), these metals will lose their primary support vector. He explicitly reclassifies Silver as an industrial metal in this environment, subjecting it to the same downside risks as Copper and Aluminum. Short industrial metals as they are historically overextended and facing a deflationary demand shock from China. A sudden resurgence in Chinese industrial demand or the S&P 500 continuing to rally above 7000 without volatility normalization. |
Bloomberg Markets
Aluminum Drops as Trump Moves to Narrow Levie...
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Feb 11
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$5.95
$5.78
-2.9%
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SHORT
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burggrabenh
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The removal of subsidies in the Chinese automotive sector has led to a significant drop in volume, indicating |
@burggrabenh
Subsidies gone, volume gone.
So much for co...
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Feb 06
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$5.86
$5.78
-1.4%
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SHORT
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@burggrabenh
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Reduced new vehicle subsidies in China, combined with collapsed construction demand, will lead to lower copper demand going forward. |
@burggrabenh
This obviously has consequences for copper de...
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Feb 02
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$5.80
$5.78
-0.4%
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AVOID
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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Gold is up a ton, Copper has surged, and Brent is up a tad, indicating that the easy policy flow is already largely priced into these hard assets. They showed the highest beta in the recent "mania." The author explicitly states that "it isn’t the metals" where Easy Street momentum is modestly priced in, implying they are already fully priced for this theme. Avoid or reduce exposure to metals, as their recent run-up has likely already discounted the expected easy policy, and new momentum based on this theme is likely elsewhere. Unexpected geopolitical events, supply shocks, or higher-than-expected inflation could drive further demand for metals regardless of monetary policy pricing. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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Jan 31
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$5.90
$5.78
-2.1%
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LONG
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David Friedberg
The Production Board / CEO
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Friedberg highlights that "Central banks have decided they no longer want to hold US treasuries... Gold is now a larger share of holdings." Chamath notes "Copper is up 26% in a month." The US fiscal situation (printing money to pay debt interest) forces dollar devaluation. In this environment, fiat purchasing power drops, but nominal asset prices (Gold, Commodities, Real Estate) rise. LONG. This is a hedge against the "debt spiral" and M2 money supply expansion. Fed hawkishness or a deflationary crash (recession) temporarily strengthening the dollar. |
All-In Podcast
ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, ...
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Jan 29
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$6.18
$5.78
-6.5%
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto Commentator / Streamer
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ThreadGuy notes metals are "trading like meme coins" with massive volatility to the upside (Copper +11% in hours). Peter Schiff explains that central banks are aggressively dumping USD reserves for physical gold to escape US sanctions risk. This is not a standard inflation hedge; it is a geopolitical exit from the US Dollar system. Because the Trump administration has explicitly claimed Bitcoin as a "US Asset," foreign capital flight is funneling exclusively into physical commodities ("Atoms") rather than digital stores of value ("Bits"). LONG physical commodities and miners. This is the only asset class catching the "flight from safety" bid. A de-escalation of geopolitical tension or a sudden strengthening of the USD could cause a violent unwind of these "parabolic" moves. |
Thread Guy
The KreekCraft Interview - Exposing Roblox's ...
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Jan 29
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$6.18
$5.78
-6.5%
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LONG
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Haseeb Qureshi
Managing Partner at Dragonfly
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"Crypto is boring... everyone's levering silver now." Gold is at $5,100. Speculators are explicitly saying, "I'm not trading crypto right now, I'm trading silver." Crypto traders are "volatility junkies." When crypto volatility dies (the current "doldrums"), this capital doesn't sit in cash; it seeks the next most volatile asset. Currently, that is Precious Metals (PMs). This introduces a new, aggressive class of buyer to the commodities market, driving parabolic moves. LONG. Follow the flow of speculative liquidity. Regulatory crackdown on RWA (Real World Asset) perps or a sudden return of volatility to BTC, which would suck liquidity back out of metals. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Is Boring… So Everyone’s Levering Silv...
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Jan 27
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$5.83
$5.78
-0.9%
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LONG
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Rob Hadock
General Partner at Dragonfly Capital
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Metals are hitting all-time highs. This is not just a monetary premium trade. There is a technological demand shock incoming. AI data centers and power generation require massive amounts of copper and rare earth metals. The supply does not exist to meet this "AI Infrastructure" demand. LONG. This is a structural, fundamental repricing of physical commodities. Global recession reducing industrial demand; AI capex slowing down. |
Thread Guy
Bitcoin is about to PUMP...? Crypto Onchain i...
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