| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Ben Gutteridge
Market Insights Strategist, Invesco |
Gold has been volatile (down $82 recently) but central bank buying remains a structural constant. Despite short-term fluctuations driven by rate cut repricing, the "debt monetization" and "central bank diversification" themes are unchanged. The dip is viewed as technical noise within a structural bull market targeting $5,000+. LONG Gold on dips. High real rates in the US persist longer than expected, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets. | 0:31 | |
| LONG |
Ben Gutteridge
Market Insights Strategist, Invesco |
UK valuations are discounted relative to global peers. The BoE is pivoting to cuts. Lower rates usually support equity valuations. The UK offers "life-like" businesses (Energy, Mining, Tobacco) at a discount, providing a hedge against the high-valuation tech concentration in the US. LONG UK Equities for diversification and value catch-up. The UK economy enters a deep recession rather than a soft landing; political instability returns. | — | |
| LONG |
Andy Chorlton
Fixed Income CIO, Invesco |
JGBs rallied on a successful auction. The market is resetting expectations regarding Japan's fiscal policy and rate path. The "spending spree" fears regarding the new administration are fading, making JGBs tactically attractive again. LONG JGBs (Tactical). Inflation in Japan re-accelerates, forcing the BoJ to hike faster than priced. | — | |
| SHORT |
Shonali Pinon
UK Economist, Bank of America |
UK unemployment ticked up to 5.2% (vs 5.1% exp) and wage growth cooled to 4.2% (vs 4.6% exp). The "sticky inflation" narrative in the UK is breaking due to labor market weakness. This forces the Bank of England's hand. Markets moved to price an ~80% chance of a March cut. Lower yields = Higher Bond Prices (Gilts) and a weaker currency (Pound). LONG UK Government Bonds (Gilts) to capture the yield compression; SHORT Sterling as the yield differential narrows against the USD. Inflation data (CPI) tomorrow surprises to the upside, forcing the BoE to hold. | — | |
| SHORT |
Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst |
Dassault Systemes and Siemens sold off sharply (Dassault ~8-10%). UBS issued a report questioning the defensibility of industrial design software. Schindler (elevator co) reportedly dropped Dassault to build internal tools. Investors previously viewed complex industrial software (Digital Twins) as a "moat." The inference is that Generative AI allows companies to build these tools in-house cheaper and faster, destroying the pricing power and retention of legacy industrial software vendors. SHORT/AVOID Industrial Software incumbents. The sell-off is an overreaction to a single client loss (Schindler); AI integration might eventually aid these platforms. | — | |
| SHORT | Anchors (Citing Goldman Sachs Note) | Goldman Sachs released an "AI Basket" note categorizing tech stocks into "Defensive" and "Vulnerable." The market is moving to "Second-Order" AI thinking. - Longs: Companies providing essential security and infrastructure that AI *requires* (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Oracle, Microsoft). - Shorts: Companies where AI *replaces* the core seat-based function or reduces billable hours (Salesforce, DocuSign, Accenture/Consulting). Pair trade: Long the Infrastructure/Security layer, Short the Legacy SaaS/BPO layer. "Vulnerable" companies successfully pivot to AI-agent revenue models faster than expected. | 7:30 | |
| LONG |
Vandita Pant
CFO, BHP |
BHP earnings beat expectations. Crucially, for the first time ever, Copper accounted for >50% of group profits, overtaking Iron Ore. This signals the structural rotation from "Old Economy" (China construction/Iron Ore) to "New Economy" (Data Centers/Electrification/Copper). BHP is effectively repricing as a copper play, which commands a higher multiple than an iron ore play. LONG BHP as a proxy for global copper demand. A global recession dampens industrial metal demand; China stimulus fails completely. | 10:06 |