Futures Slip Ahead of US Return; Iran-US Talks in Focus | Horizons Middle East & Africa 2/17/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 17, 2026 at 08:57 UTC  |  45:33  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg TV
Market Strategist — Guest (Unidentified Firm)
Prakash — Geopolitical Analyst, Bloomberg
Simon Williams — Chief Economist, HSBC
Paul — Mining Analyst, Bloomberg

Summary

  • End of US Exceptionalism: The market narrative for 2026 is defined by a rotation out of US equities (which are flat/down) and into Asia (specifically Japan, up 7-10% forecasted) and Emerging Markets.
  • Commodities Supercycle: Gold is trading with high volatility around $5,000/oz. Copper has overtaken Iron Ore as BHP’s primary earnings driver, signaling a structural shift in industrial demand.
  • Geopolitical Binary Risks: Markets are pricing in binary outcomes regarding US-Iran talks in Geneva and Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
  • Middle East Renaissance: Egypt is highlighted as a top Emerging Market turnaround story following FX rebalancing and inflation control.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG The strategist states, "We have seen Asia take the lead in 2026... It is not China... Japan market continuing to go up another 7% to 10% this year." He cites new leader Takaichi's reform policies and controlled inflation. The "End of US Exceptionalism" implies capital flow must go somewhere. Japan is the primary beneficiary due to political stability (majority house), fiscal stimulus, and a focus on "technology and robotics." LONG Japan equities, specifically focusing on the broad index and the robotics sector mentioned. JGB yield spikes (though strategist claims inflation is under control). 1:00
LONG Paul (Analyst) / BHP Management BHP reported that for the first time, "50% of our earnings came from Copper." Management confirmed they are increasing copper production to 2.5 million tons (up mid-30s%). Shares hit a record in Sydney. Iron ore demand (China steel) is plateauing, while copper demand (electrification) is surging. BHP has successfully pivoted its business model to become a copper proxy. The market is rewarding this transition with record share prices. LONG BHP as a premier large-cap copper play. Failure in execution of production expansion in Chile/Argentina. 18:55
LONG Simon Williams
Chief Economist, HSBC
Williams states regarding Egypt: "Hard to find a better story... Inflation is coming down... Big improvement in overall balance of payments." He notes foreign investors are returning due to the FX rebalancing. With the US Dollar weakening (mentioned as a positive for EM) and structural reforms taking hold, Egypt represents a deep value recovery play within the broader EM basket. LONG Egyptian assets (likely via bonds or broad EM ETFs with exposure). Failure to secure the next tranche of IMF funding or geopolitical spillover from Gaza/Israel. 29:08
MU /AAPL
WATCH "Chips are three main companies... Micron spending over $200 billion on increasing capacity. That is affecting the larger companies, Apple. 10% of the cost for an iPhone is memory chips." The strategist highlights a "Software as a Service Armageddon" and notes that rising component costs (Memory) are impacting hardware margins (Apple). While he says you "cannot duplicate US companies," the immediate setup involves margin compression for hardware and valuation compression for software. WATCH. The sector is undergoing a cost-structure shock. AI demand could offset margin compression faster than expected. 7:01
LONG Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
President Macron is in India; India decided to "buy another 114 French-made fighter jets and several hundred missiles." This is a multi-billion dollar order confirming the "sovereignty" trend where nations hedge against US unreliability by buying European defense hardware. This directly benefits French/European defense contractors. LONG European Defense. Deal execution delays or political changes in France/India.
NEUTRAL Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
Gold failed to stay above $5,000, selling off after a soft CPI print. However, it has rallied 50% in recent weeks. The asset is in a hyper-volatile state ($5,000 price tag implies extreme fiat debasement scenario in 2026). The immediate price action is "sell the news" on rate cuts, despite the long-term bullish driver of interest rate cuts. NEUTRAL short-term due to profit-taking volatility. Re-acceleration of inflation. 1:37