|
Feb 16
|
|
$3015
$3044
+0.9%
|
LONG
|
Guy Wolf
Global Head of Market Analytics
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The US has reduced domestic production for decades and now imports the vast majority. Tariffs are causing "serious issues" because "smelters take a long time to build... 25, 30-year outlook projects." The US cannot quickly onshore aluminum production. Tariffs create an immediate, unfixable supply shock that forces prices higher because the infrastructure to replace imports simply does not exist. LONG. Repeal or reduction of tariffs (though speaker notes this is politically difficult). |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$3015
$3044
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
The US is weighing a plan to roll back Aluminum and Steel tariffs, which currently sit around an effective rate of 40%. Tariffs artificially prop up domestic prices for US producers (like Nucor). Removing them introduces cheaper foreign competition, crushing margins for domestic US steel and aluminum mills. SHORT US domestic metal producers (NUE, X, AA) on the threat of lost pricing power. The report is unconfirmed or the rollback is smaller than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$3015
$3044
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Mike McGlone
Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)
|
"The lessons in aluminum are you never want to buy it above 3000... almost always it goes back down to 2000." regarding Silver: "Silver is an industrial metal... I view silver as the devil's metal is going to cause most pain ahead lower... prudent short." The speaker identifies severe deflation in China (1.8% 10-year yield) as a demand killer. Furthermore, he notes that industrial metals are trading in lockstep with the S&P 500. If the equity market corrects (which he expects due to historically low volatility), these metals will lose their primary support vector. He explicitly reclassifies Silver as an industrial metal in this environment, subjecting it to the same downside risks as Copper and Aluminum. Short industrial metals as they are historically overextended and facing a deflationary demand shock from China. A sudden resurgence in Chinese industrial demand or the S&P 500 continuing to rally above 7000 without volatility normalization. |
Bloomberg Markets
Aluminum Drops as Trump Moves to Narrow Levie...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$3015
$3044
+0.9%
|
LONG
|
Steve Liesman
Senior Economics Reporter
|
Peter Navarro (White House Trade Advisor) explicitly refuted reports that the administration would lower tariffs, stating there are "no plans" to scale them back and that steel/aluminum are "sacred." The market had begun pricing in a potential reduction in tariffs (which would lower prices and hurt domestic producers). The confirmation that high tariffs (up to 50%) remain in place protects the pricing power and market share of domestic US steel and aluminum producers against foreign competition. Long domestic metal producers who retain protectionist advantages. Retaliatory tariffs from trading partners or demand destruction due to high prices. |
CNBC
The economy overall is weaker than widely ant...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$3015
$3044
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Vonnie Quinn
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
President Trump is planning to narrow the scope/roll back the 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel to address cost of living. The removal of protectionist tariffs increases foreign supply in the US market, forcing domestic prices down (Aluminum and Steel prices already dropping in response). Short domestic metals producers as pricing power erodes. The report could be false, or the rollback might be smaller than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Team Plans Metals Tariff Rollback; NASA...
|