Ukraine Needs US to End War, Lithuania's Leader Says

Speakers

Gitanas Nausėda — President of Lithuania

Summary

The speaker emphasizes that US involvement is critical to ending the war in Ukraine, specifically referencing "Trump's initiative" as a potential vehicle for a peace deal as the conflict approaches its four-year mark (Feb 2026).
Lithuania confirms it will remain a "big buyer" of US LNG, cementing the long-term structural shift of European energy dependence from Russia to the United States.
Despite potential peace talks, the speaker argues Russia's "imperialistic ambitions" will survive any deal, necessitating prolonged US military presence (battalions) and NATO support against hybrid/cyber threats in the Baltic region.
Lithuania refuses to rename or close its Taiwanese trade office, maintaining a firm stance on values-based foreign policy despite a desire to improve relations with China.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
ITA /LMT /RTX	LONG	Gitanas Nausėda President of Lithuania	The speaker confirms that US battalion rotations in Lithuania will be "prolonged for one and half, two years" and explicitly states that even if a peace deal is signed, Russia's "imperialistic ambitions... will be alive." The market often assumes a Ukraine peace deal = sell defense stocks. The speaker refutes this, arguing that the "peace" will require higher deterrence on the Eastern Flank (Lithuania/Poland). A frozen conflict or uneasy peace necessitates permanent militarization of the border, securing long-term contracts for US defense primes. LONG US Defense contractors as the "insurance policy" for European stability. A sudden, comprehensive détente between the US and Russia that includes demilitarization clauses (highly unlikely).	—
PANW /CRWD	LONG	Gitanas Nausėda President of Lithuania	Lithuania is subject to "many sort of hybrid threats" including "cyber attacks" from Belarus and Russia, and relies on NATO assistance to deal with them. "Hybrid warfare" is the standard operating procedure for Russia, regardless of the kinetic war status in Ukraine. As the US prolongs its presence in the Baltics, the demand for US-standard cybersecurity infrastructure (Zero Trust, endpoint protection) to secure government and energy assets increases. LONG US Cybersecurity leaders. Budget cuts in EU defense spending if the economy contracts significantly.	—
US ENERGY EXPORTERS /XLE	LONG	Gitanas Nausėda President of Lithuania	The speaker explicitly states Lithuania will continue to "be a big buyer of LNG from the United States" and seeks cooperation in the energy sector. This confirms the structural decoupling of Europe from Russian gas is permanent. Even with a potential end to the war, Baltic states will not return to Russian supply. This locks in long-term demand floors for US LNG exporters. LONG US Energy Exporters. A collapse in global natural gas prices due to oversupply or a mild winter in Europe.	—