'No More Dry Powder to Come Into Tokens': Why Crypto Is Down
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 06, 2026 at 19:32 UTC  |  30:58  |  Unchained (Chopping Block)
Speakers
Joshua Lim — Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
Laura Shin — Host (Unchained)

Summary

  • Macro Divergence: A historic decoupling is occurring where Global Liquidity and Risk Assets (Stocks/Gold) are at all-time highs, while Bitcoin and Crypto are breaking down (BTC below $74k).
  • The "Dry Powder" Crisis: The primary mechanism for institutional inflows—Crypto Equities (like MicroStrategy) raising cash to buy coins—is broken because these stocks are now trading below Net Asset Value (NAV).
  • Gold vs. Bitcoin: Central Banks and Sovereigns are aggressively buying Gold, not Bitcoin. Retail capital is also flowing into Gold/Silver in a "GameStop-style" frenzy, leaving Crypto liquidity dry.
  • The Bright Spot: On-chain derivatives (Hyperliquid) are seeing record volumes specifically because users are trading Gold and Silver perps on-chain, generating massive protocol revenue.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
WATCH Joshua Lim
Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
The rise of "Agentic AI" (AI agents conducting commerce) requires automated, untraceable micropayments. Current stablecoins may not offer the privacy required for autonomous AI economies. This creates a renewed fundamental use case for privacy coins (Zcash, Monero) to serve as the transactional currency for AI agents. A speculative "call option" on the growth of the AI Agent economy. High regulatory risk (KYC/AML) remains the primary overhang for privacy coins. 29:51
NEUTRAL Joshua Lim
Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
Bitcoin has fallen below $74k (pre-Trump election levels) and is the *only* major asset class trending down while Global Liquidity trends up. The market has shifted from "Fundamental Catalysts" (ETFs, regulation - which have already passed) to a "Flows Driven" market. Currently, sovereign and central bank flows are exclusively targeting Gold, not Bitcoin. Without a new retail impulse or institutional bid, the asset is heavy. Expect a prolonged "rangebound" market with no V-shape recovery. A sudden reversal in the US Dollar or unexpected regulatory clarity from the Market Structure Bill. 0:29
AVOID Joshua Lim
Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
"There is no more dry powder to come into the tokens themselves because the shares are below net asset value." In the bull run, companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) traded at a premium to NAV, allowing them to issue shares (infinite money glitch) to buy more Bitcoin, which raised the BTC price, which raised their share price. That feedback loop has inverted. If they trade below NAV, they cannot accretively issue shares to buy BTC. The structural bid from these "DATs" (Digital Asset Treasuries) is gone until premiums return. A massive spike in BTC price could restore the NAV premium quickly.
LONG Joshua Lim
Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
Gold and Silver are seeing "GameStop-style" retail price action (30%+ moves) and massive Central Bank accumulation (China adding thousands of kilograms). Capital is rotating *out* of digital stores of value (Bitcoin) and *into* analog stores of value (Metals). The retail speculative fervor usually reserved for Altcoins has migrated to Silver. Momentum trade driven by both sovereign floors and retail speculation. Overbought conditions (blow-off top signals mentioned). 2:24
LONG Joshua Lim
Global Co-Head of Markets at Falcon X
Hyperliquid is generating ~$4M/day in revenue (top 3 in crypto alongside Tether/Circle) and conducting token buybacks. Volumes are hitting $3-4B/day. While crypto prices dump, volatility in *Real World Assets* (Gold/Silver) is driving traders to on-chain perps. Hyperliquid is capturing the fees from the Gold/Silver mania, making it a "safe haven" for liquid crypto funds that are mandated to hold tokens but want exposure to a revenue-generating asset. It is one of the few assets decoupling from the broader crypto dump due to real yield from non-crypto asset trading. Regulatory crackdown on decentralized perp exchanges; a drop in Gold/Silver volatility reducing trading fees. 14:12