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Feb 18
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LONG
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Bank of America Analyst
Head of Asia-Pacific Equity Derivatives Research
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Beijing is allowing the Renminbi to strengthen. A significant portion of Hong Kong earnings are derived in Renminbi. A stronger currency mathematically inflates the earnings of these companies when reported, acting as a passive tailwind for valuations. Bullish on Hong Kong/China equities as a currency play and a diversification hedge against US tech concentration. US-China trade war escalation could override currency benefits. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Shaun Lee
Co-founder of OSN (Open Stable Network)
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"Trade flows... are shifting predominantly from the west to the east primarily coming from China to ASEAN countries... as well as to the UAE." The macroeconomic trend is moving away from Western-centric trade corridors toward an intra-Asian and Middle Eastern bloc. As volume grows in these corridors (UAE-Philippines, China-ASEAN), the underlying economies and their payment volumes will outperform Western counterparts. LONG. Capitalize on the macro rotation of capital and goods into these specific regions. Geopolitical escalation in the South China Sea or Middle East disrupting these specific trade routes. |
CoinDesk
OSN Opens a New Blockchain Payment Rail Betwe...
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Feb 13
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SHORT
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Heidi
Guest / Analyst
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The US is putting a "choke hold" on Venezuela's oil exports to China. Beijing has "$10 to $20 billion" in debt exposure to Venezuela, structured as "oil for loans." China is losing the physical asset (oil) required to service the debt owed to them. This creates a double negative: supply chain disruption (losing 4% of oil supply) and a credit event (potential default on the $20B debt). This adds strain to the Chinese balance sheet. Short China exposure as geopolitical maneuvering by the US creates bad debt pockets for Beijing. China may negotiate a workaround or the debt amount might be absorbed without systemic impact. |
Bloomberg Markets
Oil Companies in ‘Active’ Talks Over Recoupin...
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Feb 13
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WATCH
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John Micklethwait
Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg
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Micklethwait notes, "The Chinese are winning there [Robotics and Energy]." Anja Manuel adds she saw "mountains covered with solar panels" and "robotics are unbelievable" in China. While the US wins on software, China has cornered the market on physical implementation (robotics) and power generation (solar). Investors looking for exposure to the *industrial application* of AI (robotics) or the energy transition may find better tech in Chinese equities, despite the geopolitical risk. Watch Chinese Robotics and Solar sectors. If geopolitical tensions ease, these assets are fundamentally strong; currently, they are a "Watch" due to political risk. US sanctions; tariffs; uninvestable geopolitical climate. |
Bloomberg Markets
Poland’s Sikorski Says Europe Deserves Role i...
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Feb 12
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AVOID
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Peter Navarro
Senior Counsel on Trade and Manufacturing (Trump Adviser)
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"Every country that we trade with is like fingerprints... they cheat us in their own way... India... Japan... China... [Trump] goes country by country... and he sets the tariffs according to how badly they're cheating us." The confirmation of a "bespoke" (highly specific and likely punitive) tariff regime introduces significant uncertainty for export-driven economies. Japan (non-tariff barriers) and China (mixed barriers) are explicitly named as targets, suggesting their exporters face imminent margin compression or volume loss. Avoid markets heavily reliant on US exports until specific tariff schedules are announced. Diplomatic negotiations could result in exemptions or softer deals than implied by the hardline rhetoric. |
Bloomberg Markets
Navarro says it's "criminal" how much Jamie D...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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St. John
Senior Portfolio Manager, Lincoln Investment
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Lincoln Investment (Quant fund) returned 70% last year. The manager states small caps offer "maximized return" due to higher volatility and inefficiency compared to large caps. In the Chinese market, large caps are "defensive/beta," but alpha generation is concentrated in small caps where information asymmetry exists. Quants are aggressively exploiting this. LONG Chinese Small Caps (via Quant strategies or ETFs). Regulatory crackdowns on quant trading or small-cap liquidity drying up. |
Bloomberg Markets
China's Zhipu Jolts AI Race as 'Scare Trade' ...
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