| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Shon Manasco
International Defense Lead, Palantir |
Manasco states, "We've never done business in Russia and never done business in China... nor will we in the future." He adds that "swarming drones" and "affordable munitions" are the primary threat, and NATO is using Palantir to "internalize those lessons." By strictly aligning with Western democratic values, Palantir secures a monopoly on trust for sensitive government contracts. As warfare shifts to "swarming drones" (which requires massive data processing and AI orchestration), Palantir's software becomes the essential infrastructure for NATO's modernized kill chains. Long PLTR as the primary software beneficiary of the re-arming of the West. Valuation concerns; government contract lumpiness. | 1:06 | |
| LONG |
Radoslaw Sikorski
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Poland |
Poland's Foreign Minister states, "We're buying U.S. weapons for Ukraine... We've pledged 230 billion [Euros]... We need to modernize by the end of the decade." While Europe is building its own capacity, the immediate demand ("buying U.S. weapons") flows directly to US Prime Contractors. The shift from 2% to 4.8% GDP spending by Poland signals a structural baseline increase in revenue for these vendors. Long US Defense ETFs (ITA) to capture the flow of European capital purchasing American hardware. Supply chain bottlenecks; potential ceasefire reducing urgency. | — | |
| LONG |
John Micklethwait
Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg |
Micklethwait observes, "Americans are winning white-collar AI, ChatGPT, Anthropic and Gemini." The geopolitical landscape is splitting technology stacks. The US has a distinct lead in the "brain" of AI (LLMs and software). As global instability rises, capital will flow to the winners of the "White Collar" AI race for safety and growth. Long US Big Tech (specifically Model Providers) as the dominant force in generative AI. Regulatory crackdown; AI capex bubble. | — | |
| WATCH |
John Micklethwait
Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg |
Micklethwait notes, "The Chinese are winning there [Robotics and Energy]." Anja Manuel adds she saw "mountains covered with solar panels" and "robotics are unbelievable" in China. While the US wins on software, China has cornered the market on physical implementation (robotics) and power generation (solar). Investors looking for exposure to the *industrial application* of AI (robotics) or the energy transition may find better tech in Chinese equities, despite the geopolitical risk. Watch Chinese Robotics and Solar sectors. If geopolitical tensions ease, these assets are fundamentally strong; currently, they are a "Watch" due to political risk. US sanctions; tariffs; uninvestable geopolitical climate. | 5:53 | |
| LONG |
John Studzinski
Vice Chair, PIMCO |
Studzinski notes that "The biggest pools of capital... are derisking from America" and moving into Europe for "resilience." He highlights that the European defense budget is moving toward "$1 Trillion." "Derisking" implies a rotation of capital out of US concentration and into European assets, specifically those linked to security and infrastructure. A doubling of the addressable market for European defense firms creates a massive secular tailwind. Long European Defense and Industrials benefiting from the $1T spending target. European bureaucratic inefficiency; slow implementation of banking unions. | — |