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Feb 13, 2026
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AVOID
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The speaker notes that while the Trump administration claims US oil companies will invest and profit in Venezuela, "I'm not sure we heard that type of enthusiasm from the energy CEOs because they've had some bad history." She cites a lack of stable rules and security. The market may try to price in a "Venezuela Reopening" windfall for US Majors (like Exxon or Chevron). However, the reality is that these companies are risk-averse and view the region as unsafe. The "Trump Trade" of Venezuelan revenue is likely a mirage for the majors in the medium term. Do not buy US Majors based solely on the Venezuela expansion narrative; the risk/reward is not attractive to them yet. "Wildcatters" (smaller, speculative firms) might enter the market successfully, or the administration could force incentives that de-risk the entry for majors. |
Bloomberg Markets
Oil Companies in ‘Active’ Talks Over Recoupin...
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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The US is putting a "choke hold" on Venezuela's oil exports to China. Beijing has "$10 to $20 billion" in debt exposure to Venezuela, structured as "oil for loans." China is losing the physical asset (oil) required to service the debt owed to them. This creates a double negative: supply chain disruption (losing 4% of oil supply) and a credit event (potential default on the $20B debt). This adds strain to the Chinese balance sheet. Short China exposure as geopolitical maneuvering by the US creates bad debt pockets for Beijing. China may negotiate a workaround or the debt amount might be absorbed without systemic impact. |
Bloomberg Markets
Oil Companies in ‘Active’ Talks Over Recoupin...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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Reports indicate "metal tariffs are going to come in." The speaker expects a "very bumpy ride" regarding tariff implementation, despite potential exemptions for countries like India. The reintroduction or adjustment of metal tariffs introduces input cost uncertainty and volatility for the metals market. While the long-term view is that tariffs may come down, the immediate path involves repricing risk. Watch the sector for entry points once tariff policies stabilize; avoid taking large directional bets during the initial "bumpy" implementation phase. Tariffs could be higher or more permanent than expected, spiking prices and hurting demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Oil Companies in ‘Active’ Talks Over Recoupin...
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