Open Interest 2/17/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 17, 2026 at 18:45 UTC  |  1:27:07  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Dani Burger — Anchor, Bloomberg TV
Ed Ludlow — Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology
Crystal Tse — Deals Reporter, Bloomberg
Catherine Garrity — Reporter, Bloomberg
Mandeep Singh — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Brian Levitt — Global Market Strategist, Invesco
Michelle Davis — Deals Reporter, Bloomberg
Emily Cohn — Reporter, Bloomberg
Sitara Sundar — Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
David Manlowe — CEO, Benefit Street Partners
Vania — Global Brand President, Lancôme
Dave Dase — Global Co-Head of Investment Banking, Goldman Sachs
Tyler Kendall — Washington Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

  • M&A Revival & Bidding Wars: The 2026 landscape is defined by aggressive deal-making. Warner Bros. Discovery is re-engaging with Paramount (sparking a bidding war with Netflix), while activist investors are swarming targets like Norwegian Cruise Line, TripAdvisor, and Pfizer to force sales or breakups.
  • AI Rotation & "Physical" Reality: A clear rotation is underway from pure AI hype to "physical world" assets. Investors are moving capital into industrials, financials, and mid-caps (RSP hitting highs) while scrutinizing software valuations.
  • Consumer Bifurcation: The consumer is trading down. Premium branded staples (General Mills) are crashing as buyers shift to private label, benefiting discounters like Walmart.
  • Defense AI Divergence: A split is emerging in Military AI. Anthropic is hesitating on "guardrails" for weapons/surveillance, creating a massive opening for unconstrained defense contractors like Palantir to capture government spend.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
WATCH Ed Ludlow
Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has reopened negotiations with Paramount (PARA). Netflix (NFLX) granted a 7-day waiver for these talks. A banker signaled PARA would accept a minimum of $31/share. This signals a bidding war. PARA is the clear target with a floor price established. WBD risks over-leveraging to win the deal (negative for WBD equity/credit). NFLX is in the mix but has a disciplined balance sheet; if they walk, they might collect a breakup fee, but if they bid, they face regulatory scrutiny. Long PARA (Target), Avoid WBD (Acquirer Risk/Leverage concerns). Regulatory antitrust blocks (DOJ/FTC) could kill any deal; WBD might walk away if price gets too high. 0:23
LONG Crystal Tse
Deals Reporter, Bloomberg
Activist activity is surging. Elliott has a >10% stake in Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH). Starboard is pushing TripAdvisor (TRIP) for a sale. Jana Partners is in Pfizer (PFE). Danaher (DHR) is acquiring Masimo (MASI). Activists (Elliott, Starboard) are aggressively pushing for immediate value unlocking via sales, splits, or operational overhauls. This historically creates a floor for the stock price and drives short-term upside as the market prices in M&A premiums. Long the activist targets (NCLH, TRIP, MASI). Deal talks fail; activists exit without forcing change. 0:34
LONG Brian Levitt
Global Market Strategist, Invesco
Levitt notes a rotation from "virtual themes" (AI concentration) to the "physical world." The S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) is near all-time highs, while tech has seen 3 weeks of losses. The market is broadening out. As investors take profits in Mag-7/AI, capital flows into undervalued cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials, Energy) and mid-caps that benefit from economic resilience and re-industrialization. Long RSP and Cyclical Sectors. A recession would hit cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies. 29:55
LONG Mandeep Singh
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Anthropic is hitting snags in Pentagon contract talks due to "guardrails" against mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The Pentagon insists on using AI as long as it follows the law. The military prioritizes capability and speed over self-imposed ethical guardrails. If Anthropic refuses to engage on lethal/surveillance AI, the Pentagon will funnel that capital to contractors who *will* do the work, specifically Palantir (PLTR), which already specializes in this data integration. Long PLTR (as the beneficiary of competitors' ethical hesitation). Government budget cuts or PR backlash against military AI. 13:51
GIS
SHORT Emily Cohn
Reporter, Bloomberg
General Mills (GIS) lowered its sales outlook and stock is down 7%. Consumers are trading down to private label options in cereal, snacks, and pet food. Inflation fatigue has hit a breaking point. Brand loyalty is eroding as consumers switch to cheaper alternatives. Companies like GIS that rely on pricing power are losing volume to generics. Short GIS (and similar branded staples). GIS successfully lowers prices to regain volume, compressing margins but saving market share.
WMT
LONG Emily Cohn
Reporter, Bloomberg
Consumers are trading down from premium brands to cheaper options. Cohn explicitly mentions waiting for Walmart (WMT) earnings to confirm this trend. One company's loss (General Mills) is another's gain. As consumers abandon brands for value/private label, Walmart captures that traffic and volume. WMT benefits from the "trade-down" effect. Long WMT. Consumer spending stops entirely rather than just shifting down. 42:10
NEUTRAL Sitara Sundar
Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
The market is shifting from "SaaS" to "Service as Software." Seat-based pricing models are at risk as AI agents reduce headcount. Software companies relying on "per-seat" pricing will suffer as companies hire fewer people due to AI efficiency. The winners will be "usage-based" models and infrastructure layers (Hyperscalers/Utilities) that power the AI itself. Avoid legacy seat-based SaaS; Long usage-based/infrastructure software. AI adoption slows, preserving the legacy seat-based model longer than expected.
SHORT Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
The U.S. and Iran are making progress on nuclear talks in Geneva. Oil prices fell 2.5% on the news. Geopolitical risk premiums are being priced out of the oil market. If a deal is reached, Iranian supply remains online and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz decrease. Short Oil (BRENT/WTI). Talks collapse; Israel/Iran conflict re-escalates suddenly. 39:33