| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATCH |
Ed Ludlow
Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology |
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has reopened negotiations with Paramount (PARA). Netflix (NFLX) granted a 7-day waiver for these talks. A banker signaled PARA would accept a minimum of $31/share. This signals a bidding war. PARA is the clear target with a floor price established. WBD risks over-leveraging to win the deal (negative for WBD equity/credit). NFLX is in the mix but has a disciplined balance sheet; if they walk, they might collect a breakup fee, but if they bid, they face regulatory scrutiny. Long PARA (Target), Avoid WBD (Acquirer Risk/Leverage concerns). Regulatory antitrust blocks (DOJ/FTC) could kill any deal; WBD might walk away if price gets too high. | 0:23 | |
| LONG |
Crystal Tse
Deals Reporter, Bloomberg |
Activist activity is surging. Elliott has a >10% stake in Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH). Starboard is pushing TripAdvisor (TRIP) for a sale. Jana Partners is in Pfizer (PFE). Danaher (DHR) is acquiring Masimo (MASI). Activists (Elliott, Starboard) are aggressively pushing for immediate value unlocking via sales, splits, or operational overhauls. This historically creates a floor for the stock price and drives short-term upside as the market prices in M&A premiums. Long the activist targets (NCLH, TRIP, MASI). Deal talks fail; activists exit without forcing change. | 0:34 | |
| LONG |
Brian Levitt
Global Market Strategist, Invesco |
Levitt notes a rotation from "virtual themes" (AI concentration) to the "physical world." The S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) is near all-time highs, while tech has seen 3 weeks of losses. The market is broadening out. As investors take profits in Mag-7/AI, capital flows into undervalued cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials, Energy) and mid-caps that benefit from economic resilience and re-industrialization. Long RSP and Cyclical Sectors. A recession would hit cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies. | 29:55 | |
| LONG |
Mandeep Singh
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence |
Anthropic is hitting snags in Pentagon contract talks due to "guardrails" against mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The Pentagon insists on using AI as long as it follows the law. The military prioritizes capability and speed over self-imposed ethical guardrails. If Anthropic refuses to engage on lethal/surveillance AI, the Pentagon will funnel that capital to contractors who *will* do the work, specifically Palantir (PLTR), which already specializes in this data integration. Long PLTR (as the beneficiary of competitors' ethical hesitation). Government budget cuts or PR backlash against military AI. | 13:51 | |
| SHORT |
Emily Cohn
Reporter, Bloomberg |
General Mills (GIS) lowered its sales outlook and stock is down 7%. Consumers are trading down to private label options in cereal, snacks, and pet food. Inflation fatigue has hit a breaking point. Brand loyalty is eroding as consumers switch to cheaper alternatives. Companies like GIS that rely on pricing power are losing volume to generics. Short GIS (and similar branded staples). GIS successfully lowers prices to regain volume, compressing margins but saving market share. | — | |
| LONG |
Emily Cohn
Reporter, Bloomberg |
Consumers are trading down from premium brands to cheaper options. Cohn explicitly mentions waiting for Walmart (WMT) earnings to confirm this trend. One company's loss (General Mills) is another's gain. As consumers abandon brands for value/private label, Walmart captures that traffic and volume. WMT benefits from the "trade-down" effect. Long WMT. Consumer spending stops entirely rather than just shifting down. | 42:10 | |
| NEUTRAL |
Sitara Sundar
Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank |
The market is shifting from "SaaS" to "Service as Software." Seat-based pricing models are at risk as AI agents reduce headcount. Software companies relying on "per-seat" pricing will suffer as companies hire fewer people due to AI efficiency. The winners will be "usage-based" models and infrastructure layers (Hyperscalers/Utilities) that power the AI itself. Avoid legacy seat-based SaaS; Long usage-based/infrastructure software. AI adoption slows, preserving the legacy seat-based model longer than expected. | — | |
| SHORT |
Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor |
The U.S. and Iran are making progress on nuclear talks in Geneva. Oil prices fell 2.5% on the news. Geopolitical risk premiums are being priced out of the oil market. If a deal is reached, Iranian supply remains online and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz decrease. Short Oil (BRENT/WTI). Talks collapse; Israel/Iran conflict re-escalates suddenly. | 39:33 |