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Feb 18
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$65.19
$65.54
+0.5%
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LONG
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Sophie Huynh
Reporter, The Block
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BNP Paribas is favoring "Molecules" (physical stuff) over software. Glencore reported earnings; despite a profit drop due to coal, they are retaining cash for buybacks and the copper story remains the long-term driver. AI requires energy and infrastructure (copper). As software faces disruption/uncertainty, capital rotates into tangible assets with supply constraints (Oil, Copper). LONG GLEN and BROAD COMMODITIES / ENERGY. Coal prices continuing to drag on diversified miners like Glencore. |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde Reported to Leave ECB Before Term End...
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Feb 18
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$65.19
$65.54
+0.5%
|
NEUTRAL
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Romaine Bostick
Anchor, Bloomberg
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Oil prices spiked earlier in February on fears of US-Iran conflict, but have since cooled to ~$62 as reports emerge of "constructive talks" and military options being taken off the table. The "geopolitical premium" is being priced out. Without an active escalation or supply disruption, the fundamental demand picture (which is softer) takes over, capping upside. NEUTRAL / WATCH. The trade is to fade the war fear, but the price has already adjusted significantly. Sudden collapse in talks; Israel/Iran escalation independent of US talks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Partial Shutdown Drags on Over DHS Funding | ...
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Feb 17
|
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$62.33
$65.54
+5.2%
|
SHORT
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Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
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The U.S. and Iran are making progress on nuclear talks in Geneva. Oil prices fell 2.5% on the news. Geopolitical risk premiums are being priced out of the oil market. If a deal is reached, Iranian supply remains online and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz decrease. Short Oil (BRENT/WTI). Talks collapse; Israel/Iran conflict re-escalates suddenly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Open Interest 2/17/2026
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
$62.33
$65.54
+5.2%
|
WATCH
|
Mark
Analyst, Bloomberg
|
"Bloomberg Economics... say that even if the US military does decide to do a strike, it doesn't necessarily mean that we will see lasting impacts on the oil market." Markets typically panic-buy oil on news of US military strikes in the Middle East. However, the analyst suggests a specific "Second-Order" outcome where combatants intentionally avoid energy infrastructure (similar to "Operation Midnight Hammer"). If infrastructure is spared, any war-driven oil spike would be a "fade" opportunity rather than a sustainable rally. WATCH. Monitor for knee-jerk rallies to potentially fade if infrastructure remains intact. A change in military strategy that targets oil refineries directly would invalidate this thesis and send prices higher. |
Bloomberg Markets
Iran, US Reach 'Principles' of New Nuclear De...
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|
Feb 17
|
|
$62.33
$65.54
+5.2%
|
WATCH
|
Marc Champion
Bloomberg Columnist
|
Oil prices are "holding up" going into weekends due to geopolitical risk premiums but "relaxing on Mondays" when no escalation occurs. The market is pricing in fear, not fundamentals. If there is *any* positive resolution (or simply a lack of escalation) in Ukraine or the Middle East, the risk premium evaporates. WATCH for a SHORT entry on geopolitical de-escalation news. Actual supply disruption from a wider Middle East conflict. |
Bloomberg Markets
India Seeks Role in AI Future As Modi Hosts F...
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Feb 17
|
|
$62.33
$65.54
+5.2%
|
SHORT
|
@zerohedge
|
Progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations could lead to increased oil supply or reduced geopolitical risk premium, causing oil prices to decline. |
@zerohedge
Oil Declines As Iran Says 'Understanding' Rea...
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Feb 15
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$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
SHORT
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Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
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"The president has said that his preference is to reach a deal with Iran... Steve Witkoff and Jared have some meetings lined up." Oil markets currently price in a "Geopolitical Risk Premium" based on fears of US-Iran conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio's confirmation of a pivot toward diplomacy and active de-escalation removes this immediate fear. Furthermore, a potential deal implies the normalization of Iranian oil exports, which would increase global supply and depress prices. SHORT Oil and Energy assets as the "War Premium" unwinds. Negotiations collapse, leading to immediate kinetic escalation; Iran strikes US assets to gain leverage. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Says Trump's Preference Is to Reach Dea...
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Feb 14
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$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
LONG
|
Beacon Global Strategies Managing Director
Guest Analyst (Former Special Assistant to George W. Bush)
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The analyst states regarding a strike on Iran: "I think we will do it again... President has already said that he is painted into a corner... I think he will hit... ballistic missile sites." A kinetic strike on Iran, specifically targeting missile sites, guarantees a geopolitical risk premium. This benefits defense contractors (replacing munitions) and drives oil prices higher due to Strait of Hormuz fears. LONG. War positioning is required given the "locked and loaded" rhetoric. Diplomatic de-escalation or the administration bluffing to force a deal. |
Bloomberg Markets
Clock Ticks Down to Partial Shutdown Deadline...
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Feb 14
|
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$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
LONG
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Michael
Guest / Geopolitical Analyst
|
The speaker explicitly states, "I think we're going to do it again [strike Iran]... I think he was going to hit like Israel wants to do ballistic missile sites." He adds that Trump wants "something that's going to be measurable." A US-led military strike on Iran, specifically targeting ballistic missile sites and the IRGC, creates two immediate market reactions: * Kinetic Warfare: Increased demand for munitions and missile defense systems benefits US defense primes (ITA, RTX, LMT). * Geopolitical Risk Premium: Conflict in the Persian Gulf threatens the Strait of Hormuz, necessitating a risk premium on Oil (WTI, XLE) and driving capital into safe-haven assets like Gold (GLD). LONG Defense, Energy, and Gold as a hedge against imminent escalation in the Middle East. De-escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough would rapidly unwind the war premium in oil and gold. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump Gearing Up to Strike Iran Again?
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Feb 13
|
|
$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
LONG
|
@business
|
British Defense Secretary John Healey met with counterparts from Baltic and Nordic nations to discuss seizing oil tankers linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, as Europe seeks to tighten curbs on Moscow’s |
@business
British Defense Secretary John Healey met wit...
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Feb 13
|
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$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
LONG
|
Senator Mark Kelly
Democratic Senator of Arizona / Member of Armed Services Committee
|
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Using Force Against Iran Could Backfire, Sen....
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Feb 13
|
|
$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
WATCH
|
CME Group
Narrator
|
"Will green back and oil correlations hold? Central bank surprises may bring big moves for WTI in 2026." Macro liquidity and currency strength are acting as primary drivers for energy prices. If the US Dollar (UUP) strengthens on central bank surprises, the inverse correlation suggests WTI will fall, regardless of physical fundamentals. WATCH. Monitor the correlation coefficient; if it breaks, the macro hedge relationship unravels. A decoupling of the USD/Commodity inverse correlation due to idiosyncratic supply shocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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Feb 13
|
|
$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
SHORT
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CME Group
Narrator
|
"Supply from Guyana, Canada, and Brazil is surging. OPEC Plus faces a tough choice. Lower output or lower oil prices." The market is facing a classic oversupply shock from non-OPEC sources. If OPEC+ does not cut output further (sacrificing more market share), the natural economic release valve is lower prices to clear the market. SHORT. The "Oil Balancing Act" is skewed toward downside price pressure due to the surge in new supply. A surprise geopolitical escalation or an unexpected, aggressive production cut by OPEC+. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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Feb 13
|
|
$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
LONG
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Michelle Caruso-Cabrera
CEO of MCC Global Enterprises
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"Iran felt a lot more stable... in 2025... Right now, in early 2026, I think that they're feeling a lot more vulnerable... Oil prices did sustainably rise this time." In 2025, geopolitical noise didn't stick to oil prices. Now, domestic instability in Iran combined with aggressive US military signaling (aircraft carriers) creates a genuine risk to supply. A "backed into a corner" Iran is more likely to disrupt energy flows, supporting higher crude prices. LONG. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to the energy market. A quick diplomatic resolution or demand destruction from a global economic slowdown. |
CNBC
Markets weigh geopolitics, tariffs and tech p...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$62.89
$65.54
+4.2%
|
LONG
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Becca
Defense Lead, Bloomberg Economics
|
President Trump is threatening "Phase Two" against Iran and deploying a second carrier strike group, which provides "additional firepower that could be used to strike Iran." The administration is moving assets for potential kinetic conflict, not just deterrence. This increases the probability of supply shocks (Oil) and continued government spending on munitions/defense readiness (Defense Contractors). LONG. Standard geopolitical hedge. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation deal with Iran. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Agrees to End Minnesota Immigration Sur...
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Feb 11
|
|
$64.63
$65.54
+1.4%
|
WATCH
|
Dina Esfandiary
Middle East Economic Lead, Bloomberg News
|
Tensions with Iran are high; Trump may strike, but analysts predict "managed escalation" rather than total war. A "managed escalation" implies a short-term spike in oil prices followed by a reversion to the mean as supply chains adapt. It is not a structural bull market for oil, but a volatility trade. WATCH. Buy the rumor of war, sell the news of "managed" conflict. Strait of Hormuz closure (low probability, high impact) would send oil to $100+. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Adds 130K Jobs, Sec. Wright Visits Venezue...
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