Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in 2026 | Presented by CME Group
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 13, 2026 at 17:38 UTC  |  1:16  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
CME Group — Narrator

Summary

  • 2026 is characterized by the "LNG Tsunami," marking the largest natural gas supply expansion in history, creating a potential global surplus.
  • Non-OPEC oil supply (Guyana, Canada, Brazil) is surging, forcing OPEC+ into a dilemma between ceding market share or accepting lower prices.
  • AI and Data Centers are driving the highest electricity demand in 15 years, explicitly linking the "AI race" to energy market performance.
  • China remains a "swing" factor where single policy shifts in stockpiling or export licenses can invert global fundamentals overnight.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
VST /CEG /UTILITIES
LONG CME Group
Narrator 		"Data centers are driving the highest electricity demand in 15 years... making the AI race key to oil as well." The AI boom is physically constrained by power availability. As demand hits a 15-year peak, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and Utilities with capacity (like VST and CEG) possess the scarcity value required to power these data centers. LONG. The structural increase in demand from "new tech" provides a tailwind for power generation assets. Regulatory caps on power pricing or slower-than-expected AI capex deployment. —
WTI /USO
SHORT CME Group
Narrator 		"Supply from Guyana, Canada, and Brazil is surging. OPEC Plus faces a tough choice. Lower output or lower oil prices." The market is facing a classic oversupply shock from non-OPEC sources. If OPEC+ does not cut output further (sacrificing more market share), the natural economic release valve is lower prices to clear the market. SHORT. The "Oil Balancing Act" is skewed toward downside price pressure due to the surge in new supply. A surprise geopolitical escalation or an unexpected, aggressive production cut by OPEC+. 0:25
UNG
WATCH CME Group
Narrator 		"2026 kicks off the largest supply expansion in history... traders brace for a global surplus." A "tsunami" of supply is fundamentally bearish for prices. However, the speaker notes that "project delays may be key to Henry Hub volatility." WATCH. While the long-term trend appears bearish due to surplus, the trade opportunity lies in short-term volatility plays caused by infrastructure delays. Faster-than-expected project completions exacerbating the glut immediately. —
UUP /WTI
WATCH CME Group
Narrator 		"Will green back and oil correlations hold? Central bank surprises may bring big moves for WTI in 2026." Macro liquidity and currency strength are acting as primary drivers for energy prices. If the US Dollar (UUP) strengthens on central bank surprises, the inverse correlation suggests WTI will fall, regardless of physical fundamentals. WATCH. Monitor the correlation coefficient; if it breaks, the macro hedge relationship unravels. A decoupling of the USD/Commodity inverse correlation due to idiosyncratic supply shocks. 0:25