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Feb 13
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$26.82
$27.08
+1.0%
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LONG
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Donald Trump
President of the United States
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"We have $18 trillion being invested right now in our country from other companies and countries... The King of Saudi Arabia... said 'now you have the hottest country anywhere in the world.'" If $18 trillion in foreign capital has entered the US in under a year, demand for the US Dollar (to facilitate these investments) and US assets (Equities/Real Estate) is at historic highs. This liquidity wall supports high equity valuations and a strong dollar despite high spending. Long US Dollar (UUP) and US Broad Equities (SPY) as the "capital magnet" thesis plays out. Global liquidity crisis or sudden capital flight if geopolitical stability fractures. |
CNBC
President Trump delivers remarks to the troop...
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Feb 13
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$26.82
$27.08
+1.0%
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WATCH
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CME Group
Narrator
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"Will green back and oil correlations hold? Central bank surprises may bring big moves for WTI in 2026." Macro liquidity and currency strength are acting as primary drivers for energy prices. If the US Dollar (UUP) strengthens on central bank surprises, the inverse correlation suggests WTI will fall, regardless of physical fundamentals. WATCH. Monitor the correlation coefficient; if it breaks, the macro hedge relationship unravels. A decoupling of the USD/Commodity inverse correlation due to idiosyncratic supply shocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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Feb 06
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$27.01
$27.08
+0.3%
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"Household income growth remains soft... likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A stagnant labor market with soft income growth reduces the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy and increases the probability of "Easy Street policies" (i.e., lower rates or a more accommodative stance). This dovish tilt, especially if other major central banks are perceived as relatively more hawkish or maintaining tighter policy, could lead to a weaker US Dollar. Short the US Dollar on expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the Fed due to a frozen labor market and soft income growth, which could diminish the dollar's yield advantage. Other central banks become even more dovish, global risk-off events drive safe-haven demand for USD, or the US economy shows unexpected strength. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
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