Michael — Guest / Geopolitical Analyst (2 trade ideas)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 14, 2026
ITA /RTX /LMT /WTI /XLE /GLD
LONG The speaker explicitly states, "I think we're going to do it again [strike Iran]... I think he was going to hit like Israel wants to do ballistic missile sites." He adds that Trump wants "something that's going to be measurable." A US-led military strike on Iran, specifically targeting ballistic missile sites and the IRGC, creates two immediate market reactions: * Kinetic Warfare: Increased demand for munitions and missile defense systems benefits US defense primes (ITA, RTX, LMT). * Geopolitical Risk Premium: Conflict in the Persian Gulf threatens the Strait of Hormuz, necessitating a risk premium on Oil (WTI, XLE) and driving capital into safe-haven assets like Gold (GLD). LONG Defense, Energy, and Gold as a hedge against imminent escalation in the Middle East. De-escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough would rapidly unwind the war premium in oil and gold. Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump Gearing Up to Strike Iran Again?...
Feb 14, 2026
GERMANY /GERMANY / EUROPEAN EQUITIES /DEFENSE SECTOR
LONG The speaker notes, "I don't think we'll ever be back to the place that we were where we completely subsidize European security... you've got to get to 5% [defense spending]." He also mentions Europeans are "stepping up with the defense industrial base." The US withdrawal of security subsidies forces European nations to drastically increase domestic military spending (from 2% to 5% targets). This capital flow directly benefits the European defense industrial base and general European equities exposed to rearmament. LONG European Defense and Industrials due to structural spending mandates. A change in US administration policy or European economic recession curbing budget capabilities. Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump Gearing Up to Strike Iran Again?...