Is Trump Gearing Up to Strike Iran Again?

Speakers

Michael — Guest / Geopolitical Analyst

Host — Interviewer

Summary

Prediction of Second Iran Strike: The analyst believes President Trump is highly likely to order a second military strike on Iran to maintain his "brand" of strength and because he has "painted himself into a corner" with aggressive rhetoric.
Targeting Strategy: Unlike previous strikes on nuclear facilities, this anticipated attack will likely focus on "instruments of regime repression" (IRGC, Basij) and ballistic missile sites, potentially in coordination with Israel.
European Defense Shift: The US is permanently shifting away from subsidizing European security. The administration is pushing NATO allies toward 5% defense spending, signaling a structural bull market for the European defense industrial base.
Ukraine Stance: Despite isolationist rhetoric, Secretary of State Rubio is expected to reassure allies that the US is not abandoning Ukraine and will maintain sanctions on Russia, though the ultimate goal is a negotiated peace.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
ITA /RTX /LMT /WTI /XLE /GLD	LONG	Michael	The speaker explicitly states, "I think we're going to do it again [strike Iran]... I think he was going to hit like Israel wants to do ballistic missile sites." He adds that Trump wants "something that's going to be measurable." A US-led military strike on Iran, specifically targeting ballistic missile sites and the IRGC, creates two immediate market reactions: * Kinetic Warfare: Increased demand for munitions and missile defense systems benefits US defense primes (ITA, RTX, LMT). * Geopolitical Risk Premium: Conflict in the Persian Gulf threatens the Strait of Hormuz, necessitating a risk premium on Oil (WTI, XLE) and driving capital into safe-haven assets like Gold (GLD). LONG Defense, Energy, and Gold as a hedge against imminent escalation in the Middle East. De-escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough would rapidly unwind the war premium in oil and gold.	—
GERMANY /GERMANY / EUROPEAN EQUITIES /DEFENSE SECTOR	LONG	Michael	The speaker notes, "I don't think we'll ever be back to the place that we were where we completely subsidize European security... you've got to get to 5% [defense spending]." He also mentions Europeans are "stepping up with the defense industrial base." The US withdrawal of security subsidies forces European nations to drastically increase domestic military spending (from 2% to 5% targets). This capital flow directly benefits the European defense industrial base and general European equities exposed to rearmament. LONG European Defense and Industrials due to structural spending mandates. A change in US administration policy or European economic recession curbing budget capabilities.	—