Using Force Against Iran Could Backfire, Sen. Kelly Says

Speakers

Senator Mark Kelly — Democratic Senator of Arizona / Member of Armed Services Committee

Summary

Senator Kelly highlights a severe disconnect between the White House/Pentagon leadership (Trump/Hegseth) and the career military/intelligence establishment, specifically regarding the handling of allies and the legality of orders.
He confirms the redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group toward Iran, signaling a high potential for "kinetic action," though he warns it could backfire.
A partial government shutdown affecting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is imminent, which will halt pay for TSA and Coast Guard agents, creating immediate friction in domestic travel and border security.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
ITA /XLE /WTI	LONG	Senator Mark Kelly Democratic Senator of Arizona / Member of Armed Services Committee	"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.	—
JETS /AAL /LUV	SHORT	Senator Mark Kelly Democratic Senator of Arizona / Member of Armed Services Committee	"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.	—
GEO /CXW	AVOID	Senator Mark Kelly Democratic Senator of Arizona / Member of Armed Services Committee	"ICE... is an agency that has just run amok... I am not in favor of funding them beyond what the president gave them... The agency needs to be fixed in a dramatic way." Private prison and detention center operators rely heavily on ICE contracts and funding growth. Senator Kelly signals that Senate Democrats will "hold the line" against expanding ICE's budget, creating a legislative ceiling on the revenue growth for these contractors. AVOID Private Detention stocks due to political gridlock and funding caps. Republicans may force a budget bill that includes increased ICE funding despite Democratic opposition.	—