| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs |
Trivedi states, "We do have a stronger growth outlook... despite that stronger growth outlook we expect inflation to remain benign." He cites waning tariff impacts and softer wage growth. This combination (Growth + Disinflation) is the definition of a "Goldilocks" scenario. Markets often fear strong growth leads to rate hikes, but GS argues inflation is structuraly contained (AI/China export deflation), allowing the Fed to cut rates twice in H2. LONG US Equities as the macro backdrop supports valuation expansion. Unexpected inflation spikes from supply chain shocks. | 14:46 | |
| SHORT |
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs |
GS views the Dollar as "overvalued" based on their metrics, supported previously by "exceptional market performance" in the US which is now normalizing. As US exceptionalism fades relative to the rest of the world and the Fed cuts rates (2 cuts forecasted), the yield differential support for the USD erodes. SHORT USD (expecting moderate depreciation). US inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. | — | |
| SHORT |
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs |
Trivedi notes the recent Yen rally went "too far too fast" and expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates only moderately (next hike likely July, not March). The market over-extrapolated the BoJ's hawkishness. With a slow hiking cycle and a still-strong US economy, the yield gap remains wide enough to push USD/JPY back up toward 155. SHORT JPY (Targeting 155 USD/JPY). BoJ surprises with an aggressive hike in March. | — | |
| LONG |
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs |
UK unemployment has reached its highest level since the pandemic (soft labor market) and inflation is trending down. GS expects 3 rate cuts from the Bank of England this year. The UK economy is showing clearer signs of cooling than the US or Eurozone. This forces the BoE to cut rates more aggressively than the market currently prices. Lower rates = Higher Bond Prices (Gilts) and Weaker Currency (Sterling). LONG UK GILTS / SHORT GBP (specifically vs Euro). UK inflation data surprises to the upside (sticky services inflation). | — | |
| LONG |
Sudhi Ranjan Sen
Bloomberg India Government Reporter |
Macron is in India to finalize a deal for "at least 100 fighter jets" (Rafale Marine, manufactured by Dassault). This is described as the "biggest defense deal ever for India in the last seven decades." It represents a massive, secured revenue pipeline for the manufacturer (Dassault Aviation). LONG DASTY (Dassault Aviation). Bureaucratic delays in finalizing the contract or technology transfer disputes. | — | |
| LONG |
Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst |
Campling argues the key differentiator in AI is data ownership. "Alphabet... owns the data. Microsoft doesn't own the data [mainly through OpenAI JV]." In the long-term AI race, margins and capability will accrue to those who control the feedstock (data). Google's ownership of DeepMind and Search data gives it a structural margin advantage over Microsoft, which relies on a partnership model. LONG GOOG/GOOGL (Data Owner) vs. WATCH MSFT (Data Renter). Regulatory breakup of Google; OpenAI achieves AGI faster than Google despite data disadvantage. | 35:57 | |
| WATCH |
Marc Champion
Bloomberg Columnist |
Oil prices are "holding up" going into weekends due to geopolitical risk premiums but "relaxing on Mondays" when no escalation occurs. The market is pricing in fear, not fundamentals. If there is *any* positive resolution (or simply a lack of escalation) in Ukraine or the Middle East, the risk premium evaporates. WATCH for a SHORT entry on geopolitical de-escalation news. Actual supply disruption from a wider Middle East conflict. | 5:43 |