Markets weigh geopolitics, tariffs and tech pullback risks

Speakers

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera — CEO of MCC Global Enterprises

Ryan Detrick — Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group

Marco Papic — Chief Strategist (Implied Role based on context/known background)

Summary

Market Correction: The S&P 500 and Dow have been up 9 months in a row. Ryan Detrick predicts a "banana peel" slip of ~5% in the second half of February, citing elevated sentiment and historical seasonality.
Geopolitics: Tensions with Iran are escalating (aircraft carriers deployed, "Operation Midnight Hammer"). Unlike 2025, Iran is viewed as domestically unstable and vulnerable, which is driving a sustainable rise in oil prices.
Tech Valuation: Software valuations are at their cheapest levels since 2013. Short interest in the XLK (Tech ETF) has soared, creating a potential contrarian buy signal.
Tariff Relief: Marco Papic predicts a reduction in overall tariffs from 14.2% to ~10% by year-end and a major currency deal with China to weaken the US Dollar.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
XLK /SOFTWARE	LONG	Ryan Detrick Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group	"Short interest on that [XLK] has absolutely soared over the past month... Software valuations cheapest [they have] been since 2013." High short interest often acts as a contrarian indicator, fueling potential short squeezes when sentiment turns. Combined with historically low valuations in the software sub-sector, the current "fear" provides an attractive entry point for long-term bulls. LONG. Use the current tech pullback to accumulate software names. Continued momentum in the "tech pullback" or higher rates compressing multiples further.	4:05
WTI /ENERGY	LONG	Michelle Caruso-Cabrera CEO of MCC Global Enterprises	"Iran felt a lot more stable... in 2025... Right now, in early 2026, I think that they're feeling a lot more vulnerable... Oil prices did sustainably rise this time." In 2025, geopolitical noise didn't stick to oil prices. Now, domestic instability in Iran combined with aggressive US military signaling (aircraft carriers) creates a genuine risk to supply. A "backed into a corner" Iran is more likely to disrupt energy flows, supporting higher crude prices. LONG. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to the energy market. A quick diplomatic resolution or demand destruction from a global economic slowdown.	2:14
S&P 500	WATCH	Ryan Detrick Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group	"We're in February. Historically February is... that banana peel type of month... Maybe we're due for a little banana peel slip here. You know, 5% or so." The market is overextended (up 9 months in a row). A 5% tactical correction is healthy and expected. Investors should not panic sell but rather wait for this dip to deploy cash, as the underlying bull market remains intact. WATCH. Wait for the ~5% pullback to initiate new long positions. The "slip" turns into a deeper correction if macro data (CPI) deteriorates significantly.	2:59
US DOLLAR	SHORT	Marco Papic Chief Strategist (Implied Role based on context/known background)	"I do think that with China in particular, there is going to be a big bank deal this year that may include a currency component, which will put more downward pressure on the dollar." The administration is struggling with affordability and trade deficits. A negotiated deal to weaken the USD (and strengthen CNY) combined with a predicted reduction in tariffs (from 14.2% to 10%) removes structural support for a strong dollar. SHORT. Policy shifts favor a weaker greenback to aid exports and reduce inflation. Global instability driving a "flight to safety" into the Dollar, or the Fed keeping rates higher for longer.	1:16
JAPANESE EQUITIES	LONG	Ryan Detrick Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group	"I love what Japan did this week... Japan said they're going to spend a lot of money." Fiscal stimulus ("spending money") is a direct injection of liquidity into the economy. This generally boosts corporate earnings and equity valuations in the local market. LONG. Follow the fiscal stimulus. Currency volatility (Yen fluctuations) negating equity gains for foreign investors.	—