Housing not in crisis but first-time buyers are being squeezed: Serhant Real Estate's Ryan Serhant

Speakers

Ryan Serhant — Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate

Summary

The US housing market is not in a "crisis" (distress/crash) but rather a "stalemate" defined by low volume and high equity.
Existing homeowners are financially healthy but "stuck" due to the lock-in effect of low mortgage rates, reducing mobility significantly (moving every 9 years vs. historically more frequent).
First-time buyers are the primary victims, squeezed by high prices and rates, effectively locking them out of the "American Dream" of ownership.
The only solution to the stalemate is a massive increase in housing supply, as policy currently rewards scarcity.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
LARGE PUBLIC HOMEBUILDERS /US RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR	LONG	Ryan Serhant Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate	"I think supply needs to meaningfully increase... It's not a housing crisis. I think that's a solid headline. I think it's a housing stalemate." Serhant identifies that existing homeowners are "locked in" and not selling ("punishes mobility"). Therefore, the only source of inventory to break the stalemate and meet demand is new construction. Large builders face less competition from the resale market than ever before. LONG. The "stalemate" in resale is a monopoly for new construction. Interest rates rising further could crush affordability to the point where even new builds cannot sell.	—
REAL ESTATE SERVICES /Z	AVOID	Ryan Serhant Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate	"January sales... dropped 8.4% from December... Homeowners now move once every nearly nine years." Companies like Zillow or brokerages depend on transaction volume, not just asset prices. A "stalemate" with an 8.4% drop in sales volume directly correlates to a drop in revenue for listing platforms and agents. High equity helps the homeowner, not the broker. AVOID. The "mobility crisis" is a revenue crisis for transaction-based models. A sudden drop in interest rates could unlock inventory and spike transaction volume unexpectedly.	—
SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL / BUILD-TO-RENT /BUILD-TO-RENT	LONG	Ryan Serhant Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate	"First time buyers are are being squeezed... The American Dream is economic prosperity... having that directly attached to homeownership... I don't want to sit here and say the American Dream is broken." If the "squeeze" prevents ownership, the demographic demand for housing does not disappear; it shifts to rentals. As ownership becomes mathematically impossible for first-time buyers, demand for high-quality rentals (specifically single-family structures) increases. LONG. "Squeezed" buyers become long-term renters. Legislative caps on rent increases or government intervention in the rental market.	—