| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Doug | The DOJ Antitrust Chief has resigned, and the expert states, "They probably won't block any mergers... You will see Live Nation potentially settle favorably... Paramount has a chance to steal this one." The "decapitation" of the antitrust division removes the primary overhang on large-cap M&A and monopolistic tech behavior. If the government stops blocking deals, acquisition targets (Paramount) and platform monopolies (Google) re-rate higher as regulatory risk premiums evaporate. LONG. The regulatory "put" is back; M&A animal spirits will return. Public backlash or state-level attorneys general continuing the fight despite federal withdrawal. | 31:45 | |
| LONG |
Chris Wright
US Energy Secretary |
Energy Secretary Wright confirms "active dialogues" regarding companies that lost assets in Venezuela (specifically answering a question about ConocoPhillips). He states the goal is to make Chinese/Russian influence "very small" and entice Western companies back. If the US government is politically backing the restitution of assets to US oil majors in Venezuela to secure supply and geopolitical alignment, companies like ConocoPhillips (COP) stand to recover written-off assets or gain access to cheap reserves. LONG. Geopolitical tailwinds are shifting in favor of US legacy energy producers. Venezuela's political instability or failure to honor new agreements. | 0:40 | |
| SHORT | Alexandra | Coinbase revenue "tumbled," swinging to a net loss with crypto values marked down. Rivian forecasts a larger-than-expected loss ($2.1B) and struggles with "slowing EV demand." These are not just macro headwinds; they are company-specific deteriorations in unit economics and demand. The "animal spirits" driving the broader market are not trickling down to these specific distressed growth stories. SHORT. Fundamental deterioration in a high-rate/high-cost environment. A sudden, broad-based speculative rally in risk assets (crypto/meme stocks) could squeeze shorts. | 15:18 | |
| WATCH |
Chris Sununu
Former Governor of New Hampshire / President of Airlines for America |
DHS funding is set to expire, leading to a partial shutdown. While air traffic controllers are funded, TSA agents will miss paychecks. Unpaid TSA agents often lead to "sick-outs," causing massive airport delays. While Sununu argues the impact is weeks away, the friction could hurt airline bookings and operations if the shutdown drags on. WATCH. Monitor the length of the shutdown; buy the dip if the sell-off is exaggerated by temporary headlines. A quick resolution in Washington renders the trade thesis void. | 22:08 | |
| LONG | Alexandra | Airbnb reported "strong fourth-quarter bookings," issued an "upbeat outlook," and expects revenue growth to "accelerate to at least low double digits." Despite the "slowing demand" seen in EVs (Rivian), the consumer is still spending on experiences. Airbnb is decoupling from the broader "unprofitable tech" basket and proving to be a resilient consumer discretionary play. LONG. Strong guidance in a mixed earnings season suggests distinct competitive advantage. A sharp recession curbing discretionary travel spending. | 16:23 | |
| LONG | Becca | President Trump is threatening "Phase Two" against Iran and deploying a second carrier strike group, which provides "additional firepower that could be used to strike Iran." The administration is moving assets for potential kinetic conflict, not just deterrence. This increases the probability of supply shocks (Oil) and continued government spending on munitions/defense readiness (Defense Contractors). LONG. Standard geopolitical hedge. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation deal with Iran. | 0:57 |