Citi Eyes Big India Plans as US Banks Rush to the Country | Insight with Haslinda Amin 02/12/2026

Speakers

**Paul Allen** — Anchor, Bloomberg TV

**Leon Ting** — Managing Editor for Asia Equities, Bloomberg

**Christy Tan** — Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute

**K. Balasubramanian** — India CEO, Citi

**Mark Cranfield** — Live Strategist, Bloomberg

**Richard Harris** — CEO, Port Shelter Investment Management

**Tekedra Mawakana** — Co-CEO, Waymo (Alphabet)

**Usha Haley** — Professor, Wichita State University

Summary

Asia Outperformance: MSCI Asia Pacific is off to its best start against the S&P 500 this century, driven by a "Sell America" rotation, cheaper valuations (China at 12x PE vs S&P at 26x), and a weakening US Dollar.
The "AI Fear" Trade: A new market narrative is punishing "human-heavy" service sectors (Real Estate Services, BPO, Software) on fears of AI displacement, while rewarding hardware/memory chips.
India's Structural Bull: Global banks (Citi, Goldman, UBS) are aggressively expanding "Global Capability Centers" in India, moving beyond back-office work to high-end R&D and deal-making. A new US-India trade deal targets $500B in Indian purchases of US Energy, Agriculture, and Defense goods.
Contrarian Tech View: While the market sells software/services on AI fears, veteran investors argue this is a "buy the dip" moment for entrenched platforms (Microsoft, Google) that will integrate AI rather than be replaced by it.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
MEMORY CHIPS /KOREA	LONG	Leon Ting Head of Research, TokenInsight	Ting notes that Samsung and SK Hynix are aggressively revising earnings forecasts upward due to a "memory chip shortage." The AI boom requires massive memory capacity. While software stocks are jittery, the hardware suppliers (Korea) are seeing tangible order flow and pricing power. LONG. This is the "picks and shovels" play of the AI cycle, currently outperforming US software. Global recession dampening hardware demand; cyclical downturn in chip pricing.	3:20
JPM /GS /C /UBS	LONG	Anto Antony Head of Research, Matrixport	Global banks are pouring billions into India. UBS is hiring 2,000 people for a capability center; Goldman is injecting $500M; Citi is expanding commercial banking. These banks are pivoting India from a "peripheral market" to a core revenue engine (deal-making, private credit) and a high-value talent hub (AI/Risk modeling). This improves operational efficiency and opens a high-growth revenue stream. LONG. These banks are capturing the "India Reform" alpha. Regulatory hurdles in India; currency volatility (Rupee).	27:31
META /MSFT /GOOG /AMZN	LONG	Richard Harris CEO, Port Shelter Investment Management	The market is selling off software and service stocks (like Microsoft falling 10% recently) on fears that AI will disrupt their business models. Harris argues this is a mispricing similar to the Dotcom bubble. The large platforms (Hyperscalers) are the ones with the capital to win the AI arms race. They will integrate AI to become more productive, not obsolete. LONG. Use the "AI Fear" dips to buy the dominant platforms. Regulatory breakup risks; AI actually disrupting their core search/SaaS moats faster than expected.	60:45
JLL /CBRE	WATCH	Christy Tan Investment Strateg	Real estate services stocks (CBRE, JLL, Cushman) posted double-digit declines due to fears that AI will automate leasing and brokerage tasks. Tan argues this is a "valuation rerating" driven by sentiment, not immediate earnings collapse. Real estate remains "high touch" and complex. However, the momentum is currently negative as the market reprices the "human premium." WATCH. Wait for the panic selling to stabilize; fundamentals (earnings power) may disconnect from the narrative. AI actually does successfully automate commercial brokerage, permanently compressing margins.	15:55
CHINESE AI /KWEB	LONG	Christy Tan Investment Strateg	Chinese equities are trading at ~12x forward PE versus the S&P 500 at 26x. Retail investors are returning (margin financing at record highs). The valuation gap provides a margin of safety. Tan argues you don't need the whole economy to boom, just a cyclical bottom. Harris notes the government's push for Renminbi internationalization supports the asset class. LONG. A value play within a global portfolio. Geopolitical tensions; continued property sector drag; lack of software earnings growth compared to hardware.	—
GOOGL /GOOG	LONG	Tekedra Mawakana CEO, Waymo	Waymo (Alphabet sub-unit) is on track to hit 1 million paid weekly robotaxi rides by end of year. This signals the transition from "R&D project" to "Commercial Scale." It validates the technology and opens a massive new revenue vertical for Alphabet. LONG. Regulatory crackdowns; safety incidents halting operations.	60:49
US AGRICULTURE /ENERGY	LONG	K. Balasubramanian Managing Director	The new US-India trade deal involves a commitment/intent for India to purchase $500B worth of US goods, specifically mentioning energy and agriculture. This is a direct government-mandated demand shock for US exporters in these sectors. LONG. The deal is "intent" based and lacks binding enforcement; Indian farmers protesting could dilute the agricultural concessions.	74:46
US DOLLAR	SHORT	Leon Ting Head of Research, TokenInsight	The US Dollar has been on a weakening path against Asian currencies (Yen, Renminbi). A weaker dollar acts as a massive tailwind for Asian assets (making them cheaper for locals to hold and boosting export competitiveness). This supports the "Rotation to Asia" trade. SHORT. Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to strong jobs data (130k jobs added), forcing a dollar rally.	2:33