| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT | MLIV Guest | "I would have thought yields would go much further... it should be overall a bigger shift, higher in the yield curve." The market underreacted to strong payroll data. The speaker believes the "flattening move" is insufficient and the entire curve needs to shift higher to reflect economic reality. Short US TREASURIES (expecting higher yields). Weak economic data prints causing a sudden flight to bonds. | — | |
| SHORT | MLIV Guest | "The world is overexposed to the dollar on a structural basis... The dollar is one year into a multiyear downtrend." Even "strong payrolls" failed to spike the dollar significantly. The speaker argues the reaction function is asymmetric: weak data hurts the dollar (cuts), and strong data also hurts the dollar (implies bad monetary policy/fiscal dominance). Sell rallies in the US DOLLAR. A massive geopolitical flight-to-safety event spiking demand for USD cash. | 1:36 | |
| SHORT | MLIV Guest | "The fundamental reasons for being bearish the yen have not changed... this is still a very slow growth economy with a very large debt pile that offers deeply negative real yields." The market is currently pricing in a "Buy Japan" political narrative that the speaker believes is factually wrong. The current rally to 153 is a liquidity window to re-enter short positions or fund carry trades (borrowing JPY to buy risk assets). The Yen rally is unsustainable; use the strength to Short JPY. Japanese political reforms actually generating immediate structural growth (speaker views this as unlikely). | 0:10 | |
| SHORT | MLIV Guest | "I still kind of think we see a little bit of an equity shock in the coming weeks on some of this kind of wealth damage... and portfolio damage." The speaker cites anxiety around "assassination" (likely specific news event) and the Real Estate sector as catalysts for a near-term drawdown. They explicitly state AI is "farther down the line" and won't save the market immediately. Short S&P 500 INDEX and REAL ESTATE for a tactical correction. AI hype cycle accelerates faster than expected, overriding macro headwinds. | 2:48 |