Could Texas Be In Play For Democrats During the Midterm Election?

Speakers

Jim Messina — Democratic Strategist / Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Obama

Joe — Host

Kailey — Host

Summary

Texas Political Instability: Messina suggests Texas could be "in play" for Democrats in the midterms, citing Donald Trump's poor polling numbers in the state and potential weakness if Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary. However, he acknowledges Democrats haven't won statewide there since 1994.
The "Affordability" Election: Messina asserts that "affordability" is the only issue that matters to voters right now. He notes Trump is underwater on this metric, but voters are blaming the incumbent party for inflation.
Foreign Policy Weakness: The panel discusses AOC and Governor Whitmer stumbling on foreign policy questions (Taiwan/Munich), suggesting a lack of cohesive messaging on the Democratic bench regarding global economics and defense.
2028 Positioning: Messina views current media appearances by Whitmer, AOC, and others as early jockeying for the 2028 Presidential race.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
ENERGY	WATCH	Jim Messina Democratic Strategist / Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Obama	Messina states that "Donald Trump's numbers are really bad in Texas" and that if the GOP primary produces a weak candidate (Paxton), the state is "in play" for Democrats. Texas is the heart of the US energy industry. While a Democratic flip is historically unlikely (as Messina admits), the mere narrative of Texas becoming a swing state introduces "Tail Risk" regarding state-level regulation and taxation on Oil & Gas producers, who traditionally rely on a stable GOP regulatory environment in the state. Monitor Texas polling data. A competitive race introduces volatility to Texas-heavy energy names. Democrats have not won Texas since 1994; this may be purely aspirational political rhetoric with no real threat to the status quo.	—
US CONSUMER /ECONOMY	WATCH	Jim Messina Democratic Strategist / Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Obama	Messina explicitly states, "This is an affordability election... That's the only issue that matters for Democrats right now." He notes voters are hyper-focused on costs. When political strategists pivot 100% of their messaging to "affordability," it is a lagging indicator that the US Consumer is under severe financial stress. It signals that inflation and cost-of-living are the dominant economic constraints, likely dampening discretionary spending power. Caution on Consumer Discretionary sectors as the political narrative confirms widespread wallet exhaustion. "Affordability" messaging could lead to government subsidies or stimulus, which would artificially boost consumer spending in the short term.	—