Will Congress Be Warned If Trump Attacks Iran Again?

Speakers

Raja Krishnamoorthi — Congressman (D-IL), Member of House Intelligence Committee & China Select Committee

Summary

Geopolitical Risk (Iran): The Congressman expresses high concern regarding potential US military action against Iran ("Operation Midnight Hammer" referenced as a past precedent). He warns that the Administration may bypass the War Powers Act, increasing the risk of a sudden kinetic conflict in the Middle East without Congressional oversight.
Geopolitical Risk (China): Krishnamoorthi argues that a Middle East conflict is a strategic error that diverts critical assets from the Indo-Pacific, describing it as a "gift" to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He emphasizes that lowering deterrence in Asia invites aggression.
Domestic Policy / Shutdown: The US is currently 4 days into a partial government shutdown. The Congressman explicitly states he will not vote to fund DHS, ICE, or CBP without significant policy changes (masks, warrants, conduct), signaling a prolonged deadlock affecting border security funding.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
XLE /USO	LONG	Raja Krishnamoorthi Congressman (D-IL), Member of House Intelligence Committee & China Select Committee	"I'm concerned that we're gonna potentially end up in another war in The Middle East... President Trump authorize the use of force in Iran." The Congressman highlights a high probability of kinetic action against Iran. Any military escalation in this region historically threatens the Strait of Hormuz and oil infrastructure, necessitating a geopolitical risk premium on energy prices. Long Energy (XLE) and Oil (USO) as a hedge against supply shocks and war risk. Diplomatic de-escalation or US energy production offsetting global supply fears.	—
ITA /LMT /RTX	LONG	Raja Krishnamoorthi Congressman (D-IL), Member of House Intelligence Committee & China Select Committee	"When you show weakness and you lower your deterrence, then you invite aggression... I'm more concerned about the Chinese Communist Party and their economic, military, and technological aggression." While the immediate focus is Iran, the Congressman's broader thesis is that the US is under-resourced in the Indo-Pacific. This bipartisan pressure (from Intel/China committees) supports sustained long-term defense spending, particularly for naval and aerial assets (Raytheon, Lockheed) required for dual-theater deterrence. Long Defense (ITA) as global instability (Middle East + China) acts as a tailwind for the sector. Budget sequestration or diversion of funds due to the government shutdown.	—
GEO /CXW	AVOID	Raja Krishnamoorthi Congressman (D-IL), Member of House Intelligence Committee & China Select Committee	"I'm not gonna vote to send a single dollar to fund ICE or DHS or CBP right now unless and until some common sense changes are made... They have rejected the policies of ICE." The government shutdown is specifically hinged on DHS funding. The Congressman's hardline stance against current ICE operations creates significant political and headline risk for private prison and detention center operators who rely on these federal contracts. Avoid private detention stocks (GEO / CXW) until the budget impasse is resolved. A compromise is reached quickly that preserves status quo funding.	—
GLD	LONG	Raja Krishnamoorthi Congressman (D-IL), Member of House Intelligence Committee & China Select Committee	"Aggression can spark conflict and lead to war... partial shutdown that we're now four days into." The combination of a dysfunctional government (shutdown) and looming war risk (Iran) creates a classic "fear trade" environment. Uncertainty drives capital toward non-sovereign stores of value. Long Gold (GLD) as a safe-haven asset. Strong US Dollar or rising real yields dampening gold appeal.	—