|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Jim Messina
Democratic Strategist / Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Obama
|
Messina explicitly states, "This is an affordability election... That's the only issue that matters for Democrats right now." He notes voters are hyper-focused on costs. When political strategists pivot 100% of their messaging to "affordability," it is a lagging indicator that the US Consumer is under severe financial stress. It signals that inflation and cost-of-living are the dominant economic constraints, likely dampening discretionary spending power. Caution on Consumer Discretionary sectors as the political narrative confirms widespread wallet exhaustion. "Affordability" messaging could lead to government subsidies or stimulus, which would artificially boost consumer spending in the short term. |
Bloomberg Markets
Could Texas Be In Play For Democrats During t...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Roger Ferguson
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve
|
Ferguson highlights that "Wealth effects still exist," "GDP numbers still look like they're going to be strong," and the labor market is stabilizing with "robust" job creation. The bear case for the economy relies on the consumer running out of excess savings. Ferguson counters this by pointing to the wealth effect (from high equity/home prices) and a healing labor market. If the consumer is strong and the Fed is not over-tightening (just waiting), the "soft landing" or "no landing" scenario favors equities over cash. LONG. The macro backdrop supports continued consumer spending and corporate earnings growth. Sticky inflation erodes real wage gains, eventually curbing consumption. |
CNBC
The economic data doesn't support an aggressi...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
Catherine Edwards
Economic Policy Consultant
|
"Credit defaults at all-time highs, very high delinquencies, the balance sheets on credit cards are high." The headline jobs number (130k) is masking deep rot. Job growth is only in healthcare (driven by aging/sickness, not economic dynamism). A consumer with maxed-out credit cards and no high-wage job growth cannot sustain discretionary spending. SHORT Consumer Discretionary (cyclical retail, travel). Federal Reserve cuts rates aggressively, providing a lifeline to debtors. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tariffs Face House Rebuke | Balance of ...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
NEUTRAL
|
Julia Coronado
Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives
|
"The consumer is slower, the jobs market is slower. But there's no signs that things are really kind of spiraling out of control." The economy is undergoing a "step down" in growth rather than a collapse. The slowing data is consistent with structural constraints (labor supply) rather than a demand crisis. Maintain exposure but expect lower growth rates; do not position for a hard landing/crash. If the "slower" trend accelerates into actual job losses rather than just low hiring, the soft landing thesis fails. |
CNBC
Hiring trend barely in positive territory, sa...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Claudia Sahm
Economist, Federal Reserve Board
|
Sahm explicitly warns, "For groups like people new to the labor market, this is a very tough job market." She also notes the revisions show we were "destroying jobs" in certain months last year. While the aggregate numbers look okay, the "marginal buyer" (new entrants, lower income) is under stress. If new entrants cannot find work, household formation and discretionary spending (retail, autos, housing) will face headwinds. This suggests a bifurcation where the economy grows, but the consumer sector may struggle with volume. WATCH. Be cautious on consumer discretionary stocks exposed to entry-level or lower-income demographics. The "tough market" spreads to prime-age workers, causing a collapse in aggregate consumption. |
Bloomberg Markets
What the US Jobs report means for the Fed
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Joseph Lavorgna
Former Chief Economist, National Economic Council
|
"You're going to see American wages rise, the index of aggregate weekly payrolls is [up]... That's a huge gain." Lavorgna explicitly refutes the bearish labor thesis. He connects rising labor participation and increasing aggregate payrolls to a strengthening economy. Higher wages and more people entering the workforce directly translate to increased disposable income and consumer spending power. Long US Consumer / Economy exposure based on the strength of the labor market and wage growth. Wage-push inflation could force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, compressing equity valuations. |
CNBC
Job market impact from immigration policy 'do...
|