Hiring trend barely in positive territory, says MacroPolicy's Coronado

Speakers

Julia Coronado — Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives

Summary

The US labor market has hit a structural wall: due to an aging workforce and lack of immigration, the rate of job growth required to keep unemployment steady is now "really, really low" (barely positive).
Consequently, low payroll numbers are not a recession signal but a demographic reality. Unemployment has actually ticked lower recently.
The Fed will not be in a hurry to cut rates. With PCE inflation expected around 3% and tariff pass-through looming, cuts (maybe 1-2) are likely pushed to the second half of the year.
The "whole bunch" of rate cuts predicted by some (e.g., Einhorn) is not supported by current data; the economy is slowing but not spiraling, supported by AI investment.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
AI SECTOR	LONG	Julia Coronado Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives	"We've got the AI tailwinds on investment." While the consumer and broader jobs market are slowing, corporate capital expenditure on Artificial Intelligence remains a robust pillar supporting the economy, preventing a recessionary spiral. Long AI infrastructure and investment themes as the primary growth engine in a slowing macro environment. Overinvestment or lack of ROI in AI projects could remove this economic prop.	—
US CONSUMER /ECONOMY	NEUTRAL	Julia Coronado Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives	"The consumer is slower, the jobs market is slower. But there's no signs that things are really kind of spiraling out of control." The economy is undergoing a "step down" in growth rather than a collapse. The slowing data is consistent with structural constraints (labor supply) rather than a demand crisis. Maintain exposure but expect lower growth rates; do not position for a hard landing/crash. If the "slower" trend accelerates into actual job losses rather than just low hiring, the soft landing thesis fails.	0:48
INTEREST RATES	NEUTRAL	Julia Coronado Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives	"The unemployment rate... has actually ticked lower... [Inflation] is going to be about 3%... You're really going to be looking at the second half of the year before they could see the kinds of easing... maybe once or twice." The market or specific investors (like Einhorn) expecting "a whole bunch" of cuts are misinterpreting the low job growth numbers. The Fed sees this as structural (demographics), not cyclical weakness, and will keep rates steady to fight sticky inflation and tariff effects. Fade aggressive rate cut bets. Yields are unlikely to plummet in the short term. A sudden spike in unemployment or economic "spiraling" would force the Fed's hand.	0:24