| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary |
"The private sector numbers were more than 170,000, and government jobs were reduced... We're at the lowest ratio of government jobs to total jobs since 1966... If you look at the broad indices, whether it's the equal weighted S&P... or the small cap indices, they're doing fantastic... Regional banks are doing well." Bessent argues that the "reprivatization" of the economy and deregulation directly benefit domestic-focused companies over global mega-caps. He explicitly points to Equal Weight S&P (RSP) and Regional Banks (KRE) as the true barometers of this "Main Street" recovery, suggesting a rotation out of market-cap weighted concentration into broader cyclical breadth. Long domestic cyclicals and equal-weight indices to capture the "broadening out" trade. Re-acceleration of inflation could force the Fed to keep rates high, hurting small caps and regional bank balance sheets. | — | |
| LONG |
Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary |
"We saw 40,000 new construction jobs... First we'll get the construction jobs and then the factory jobs are going to come... We need to de-risk... What did they do on critical minerals? What did they do on bringing back semiconductor production? What did they do on bringing back steel to the US?" The administration is prioritizing physical industrial build-outs (factories) and supply chain sovereignty. This "Capex Boom" requires heavy machinery (CAT), domestic steel (NUE), and domestic critical mineral processing (REMX). The specific mention of "bringing back semiconductor production" reinforces the bull case for US-domiciled chip manufacturing (SMH). Long the "Industrial Renaissance" basket (Construction, Steel, Semis, Rare Earths). Delays in factory completions or a global recession reducing demand for raw materials. | — | |
| LONG |
Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary |
"President Trump has worked to make the US the digital asset capital of the world... I think some clarity on the Clarity Bill would give great comfort to the market... Bitcoin has a history of volatile movements... average sell off has been about 58%." While acknowledging short-term volatility (calling the current price action "dicey"), Bessent views the current drawdown as standard historical behavior. The core thesis is regulatory: passing the "Clarity Bill" is viewed as the catalyst that ends the "extinction event" risk from the previous administration. This regulatory moat benefits the asset (BTC) and compliant exchanges (COIN). Long on regulatory tailwinds, despite acknowledging short-term volatility. Failure of the Clarity Bill to pass or continued "dicey" price action exceeding historical drawdown averages. | 24:54 | |
| LONG |
Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary |
"Energy is coming down... We are seeing real wage growth... Tax refunds thus far... are up 22%... 2026 is going to be a banquet for the American people." The combination of lower energy costs (a tax cut for consumers), deregulation, and higher tax refunds creates a "disinflationary boom" scenario. If the consumer has more disposable income and inflation (the "terrible tax") falls to 2%, consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) should outperform consumer staples. Long Consumer Discretionary on the "Affordability Recovery" thesis. If inflation proves sticky or energy prices spike due to geopolitical tension, discretionary spending will contract. | — |